Scoring two or three goals every game is not the only way Leeds United will stay in the Premier League this season. Javi Gracia is more than prepared to be pragmatic and rely on a defence which has steadily improved in recent weeks.
On Saturday at Chelsea, it was painfully clear how much the Whites were missing Patrick Bamford and, even more so, top scorer Rodrigo. For someone who has been criticised for more than two years as a misfit forward in United’s system, the Spain international has more than answered his critics.
The Whites faithful is clinging to news of the 32-year-old’s return to action. Less than two weeks ago, Rodrigo told LeedsLive he expected to be in contention before the international break, making him available to Gracia either this weekend or next.
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Even in Rodrigo’s absence, however, Bamford has hardly set the world alight in his tentative return to selection after a succession of injuries across the past 18 months. A return of three goals and five blanks across seven games tells the Leeds story in front of the net.
Evidently, goalkeepers need to be beaten if Gracia is to keep the Whites in the division, but if he cannot come to rely on two or three goals, he does have another crutch to lean on. The defence is rising to the occasion.
Across the past seven league games, the Whites have averaged 1.04 xGA (expected goals allowed). That run included the Manchester United double bill and the weekend trip to big-spending Chelsea.
In the seven games previous to that, including Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City and Newcastle United, the average per game was 2.01 xGA. Leeds have halved the number of goals they are expected to concede every match.
Even if you argue the more recent set of seven games was easier, with Nottingham Forest, Everton and Southampton in the mix, you can still see an overall improvement in that statistic. Luke Ayling has found something like his form of 20/21, Junior Firpo has never played more consistently in white and the centre-backs are forming a German-speaking fortress down the middle.
On Saturday, Gracia was asked directly how difficult it is to build attacks without a natural number nine. He said: “I can tell you it’s very difficult, or whatever you want, but I have to look for the solution.
“If you have or don’t have [a natural striker][, or you have only one or two, I try to look for the solution. After two Premier League games, we score one goal and conceded one goal.
“We need to work on it and if we are not able to score too many goals, then we have to be more compact and more solid to concede less goals.”
More compact and more solid. If Gracia cannot get a regular tune from his attack across these coming 13 matches, you can bet your bottom dollar he’s snapping your hand off for a few 1-0s en route to safety.
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