Lee Johnson has described himself as a ‘weirdo’ after admitting he is ready to play the Matt Damon role from the popular movie Good Will Hunting in a bid to find a winning formula at Hibs.
Ahead of tomorrow’s derby visit of Hearts, Johnson was taken aback at how much the Leith side lagged behind their city foes last season when it came to all the stats on the pitch. That included expected goals, box entries and percentage of box entries when you get first touch.
In the end it was the points column that mattered most last term as Hibs finished some 16 points adrift of third place Hearts. But just like the young mathematical genius played by Damon in the acclaimed Hollywood blockbuster, the Hibs boss is also planning to play the numbers game in the Easter Road dugout to make sure the figures look good come the end of the season.
Johnson said: “I’m a bit of a weirdo aren’t I? In terms of the way I see football. I see a numbers game, I’m always looking for reference points on the pitch, numbers overloads, box entries, distances.
“What’s that film where he writes all the things on the board with Matt Damon? Good Will Hunting.
“That’s exactly how I am seeing football matches, I am always taking little reference points and playing the numbers game. Of course it does not guarantee you a win but playing the numbers game over a period of time does guarantee you progression.
“The big thing statically last year was that our attacking threat was not anywhere near good enough and if you look at the key elements that produce goal scoring teams, we were not anywhere near Hearts.
“That for me is the acid test, defensively we were solid and we know we’re tweaking the dial this year to turn that a bit. Does it mean we’ll concede more goals? Potentially. But hopefully we’ll score more as well.”
Asked what was the main stat that caused him alarm, Johnson, who is taking charge of his first derby as Hibs boss and first boss following his summer arrival, added: “If you had a radar of the most important factors in being a successful attacking team - expected goals, goals scored, box entries, percentage of box entries when you get first touch, touches before the shot to finish, all that type of stuff, Celtic were like that (mimes large circle), Hearts were like that (mimes smaller circle) and Hibs were like that (mimes impossibly small circle).
“So there’s a gap there and that’s got to be bridged. You do it with personnel, cohesion, you do it because a manager has a different mindset in the way he wants to play. I would just like for personal preference to turn the dial so we become more of an attacking team.”
Johnson also put his theory over data from games to the test following his sacking as Sunderland boss in January by gambling on football. And he almost doubled his money in a short space of time.
Johnson added: “When I was out of work, I did a bit of professional betting. And the reason I did professional betting was because I still had all the data from packing skills, which is a German concept, Opta stats, StatsBomb, expected goals stats.
“So I’m thinking, ‘this is easy’. This is easy money, I want to put X amount in a little kitty, I’m going to then pick what I believe is the best fixtures in the value bets.
“I increased my pot in about 24 match days. I think it was by about 180 per cent.
“That was just playing the numbers. So it can be done if you’ve got the data, if you’ve got the eye for it, if you understand how it works, you can do it.”
Wing-back Chris Cadden, meanwhile, insists he is desperate to get his first taste of a derby victory today having viewed YouTube videos of past memorable wins over Hearts when he first joined from Columbus Crew in January 2021.
Hibs have failed to win any of the last six derbies, losing four - but Cadden, who signed a new three-year deal yesterday, plans to change that run of form.
He said: “I haven’t seen Easter Road after a derby win yet. When you sign for Hibs you look at the big derby wins on YouTube and you see the Sunshine on Leith celebrations at the end.
“They’re the ones you watch. You want a rocking Easter Road, that’s the reason you sign and these games are the reason you want to play here.”
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