SCOTTISH Labour are on course to win up to 28 seats at the General Election, a new poll suggests.
Support for independence, meanwhile, replicated that of the 2014 referendum, with 45% of decided voters backing indy and 55% in favour of staying in the UK.
This represents a 3% drop since the last Survation poll last year.
A survey by Survation for True North spoke to 1026 people aged 16 and over between May 23 and Monday.
Labour was the choice of 36% of respondents, while 32% backed the SNP.
While support for the Tories in the General Election remained around 17% and the Lib Dems were on 9%.
If the poll was replicated on July 4 – according to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice – Labour would come just shy of a majority of seats on 28 out of 57, up from the single constituency won in 2019.
But the SNP would plummet to just 16 compared to the 48 won five years ago.
The Tories would increase their tally from six MPs to eight and the Lib Dems would gain one, rising to five.
Responding to the poll, Curtice (below) said: “The party’s support for Westminster is as much as four points down on the beginning of the year.
“Fewer than two in three of those who would vote Yes in an independence referendum are currently minded to vote for the party.
“As a result, Labour now have a clear lead in Westminster vote intentions for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum.
“As the General Election campaign gets under way, the SNP face the prospect of severe losses at the beginning of July, and thus the possible loss of its coveted status as the third largest party at Westminster.
“The party badly needs to try and persuade Yes supporters to return to the party fold.”
True North managing partner – and former SNP head of communications – Fergus Mutch said it was “Labour’s election to lose”, adding that Labour’s momentum would require a “powerful response” to counter.
The poll also looked at voting intentions for Holyrood, with just under two years to go before the 2026 election.
Labour would again streak past the SNP, if the poll were to be replicated, winning 48 seats to the SNP’s 42.
The Tories would drop to 17, while the Lib Dems would return 13 MSPs and the Greens would win 9.
Personal approval ratings of political leaders also showed Sir Keir Starmer to be the most popular among respondents, sitting on a 3% net approval rating compared to -38% for Rishi Sunak.
First Minister John Swinney – who took over the reins of the SNP just weeks ago – was on -7%, just behind Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar on -3%.
