Labour has scored its largest swing in a byelection since 1994 after overturning a majority of more than 18,000 in Wellingborough, bolstering predictions that the party is on course for a landslide victory at the next general election.
Labour’s candidate, Gen Kitchen, won with 13,844 votes, beating the Conservatives’ Helen Harrison who received 7,408 votes in the largest swing from the Tories to Labour since 1994 and second-largest since the second world war. It was Labour’s fifth byelection gain from the Conservatives overall in this parliament. The party also gained a Tory seat in Kingswood, dealing a double blow to an embattled Conservative party that has lost 10 byelections in a single parliament, more than any government since the 1960s.
Labour achieved its largest swing in a byelection since 1994 with 28.5%. Turnout stood at 38.1% in Wellingborough and 37.1% in Kingswood, fairly low figures compared with other recent byelections in England. Tamworth and Somerton and Frome recorded lower turnouts but contests in Uxbridge, Selby and Ainsty and Mid Bedfordshire saw figures in the mid-40s.
Speaking after her win, Kitchen said: “The people of Wellingborough have spoken for Britain. This is a stunning victory for the Labour party and must send a message from Northamptonshire to Downing Street.”
The wins in Wellingborough and Kingswood will temper fears that a testing week for Labour has significantly threatened its electoral prospects and will further bolster predictions that the party stands to win a large majority at the next general election.
Harrison appeared at the count about two hours before the results were announced. She was in high spirits, posing for photographs and telling reporters she was feeling “good”. She also appeared on good terms with Reform UK, at one point calling over the party’s leader, Richard Tice.
After the result was announced, Harrison was swarmed with cameras while leaving the counting hall and declined to say whether her loss was Sunak’s fault, instead saying she was “disappointed”. She said she would “absolutely” be running again before complaining she could not see because of the bright camera lights in her face. A car was waiting for Harrison outside the venue which she swiftly entered as supporters caught up to applaud her before the car drove off.
Reform UK achieved its best result in an election so far, winning 13% of the vote, beating the record set about an hour earlier in Kingswood, where the party reached 10% of the vote. Ben Habib, the party’s candidate in Wellingborough, said the result was a staging post for the party’s growth, adding “the world is our oyster”.
When asked whether standing would lead to greater Tory losses and hand Labour a stronger mandate to enact policies the party opposes, Habib said: “I’m not into being a weathervane for the Conservative party. I’m not in it to make sure we get minor policy adjustments which suit our view of life. We need a 180 degree handbrake U-turn from the policy direction that the Conservative party has taken and that Labour will frankly continue.”
The byelection in Wellingborough was triggered when voters recalled the former Tory MP Peter Bone after he received a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.
He won the Northamptonshire constituency at every general election from 2005 to 2019, with Labour coming second in four of the five contests and Ukip doing so in 2015. His majority in 2019 was 36%. Bone did not attend Thursday night’s count.
There was further controversy after Bone’s partner, Harrison, was selected as the Conservative candidate. High-profile Tory MPs have been absent in the constituency and not a single frontbencher endorsed Harrison. Last month, Rishi Sunak dodged the opportunity to endorse her after he was asked whether he was “proud” she had been selected given her connection to Bone. He said it was up to local members to select their candidate.
Harrison stayed firmly out of the spotlight in the run-up to the byelection. She refused all national media interviews and has not posted on the social media platform X since 11 January, when she announced her selection.
The result will be welcomed by Keir Starmer, who has had one of his most challenging weeks since becoming Labour leader after two of the party’s parliamentary candidates were suspended in the space of 24 hours over comments relating to Israel. On Wednesday, a Savanta poll had Labour’s lead over the Conservatives down by seven points, its lowest since June 2023.
On Sunday, remarks made by Azhar Ali, Labour’s candidate in the Rochdale byelection, surfaced in which he said Israel had deliberately relaxed security before the 7 October Hamas attack after warnings of an imminent threat. After initially backing Ali, Starmer withdrew support for him on Monday evening.
Less than 24 hours later, the party suspended Graham Jones, the candidate for Hyndburn, after a recording surfaced of him suggesting world leaders privately bemoaned “fucking Israel”.
Speaking before the result, Toby Perkins, the shadow nature and rural affairs minister, said the suspension of Ali and Hyndburn did not come up on the doorstep, adding the win would give the party a lift.
Last week, Starmer formally dropped his flagship target of spending £28bn a year on green investment, citing poor economic conditions, despite support for the policy from the public and warnings from business leaders to keep it.
Labour last held Wellingborough between 1997 and 2005, losing it in that year’s general election to Bone. During the Tony Blair years Wellingborough was a swing seat. Labour won it in 1997 with a majority of just 187 votes and lost it in 2005 by 687.
In recent years the constituency has been a Tory stronghold, with the Conservatives winning with a majority of 18,540 in 2019.
For the Conservatives, the loss of another safe seat could prompt long-shot attempts by backbenchers on the right of the party – who are already at odds with the prime minister over the Rwanda bill – to replace Sunak as leader before the next general election.
