Labour is on course to win a comfortable 56-seat majority at the next election, according to a new poll.
As current voting intention stands, Keir Starmer will win the keys to No10 with a 12-point lead over the Tories if such a result to play out at the election set to be in 2024, the MRP model by Savanta ComRes for LabourList shows.
In her first speech as Prime Minister, Liz Truss ruled out a snap election, folllowing suggestions she could not establish a commanding majority like her predecessor Boris Johnson.
If voters were to follow their current intentions at the next election, set to be in 2024, the poll says Labour would regain many so-called 'Red Wall' seats – including Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Blyth Valley, Sedgefield and Workington.
Shabana Mahmood became the latest senior Labour MP to challenge the new PM to go to the polls.
She told delegates: “My hope is one year from now I will stand here and report to you how we won a general election.”
Ms Mahmood, MP for Birmingham Ladywood and national campaign co-ordinator, said Labour is “back on its feet” after a “decade of defeat, decline and embarrassment” at the ballot box.
Savanta ComRes researchers have noted the results will only be a huge success if Mr Starmer is able to highlight the contrast between Labour's economic policies and those of Ms Truss's Government.
The polling did show some traditional bellwether constituencies - those that tend to indicate the winner of an election - not going Labour's way, with the Conservatives holding Dartford, Portsmouth North, Nuneaton and Great Yarmouth.
Voters in 357 of Tory constituencies said they trusted Labour more to manage policies related to the rising cost-of-living than the Conservatives, according to the research.
Mr Starmer leads Ms Truss in just 53 of the 357 current Conservative-held seats, with the MRP model indicating that Labour are the most likely winner in 52 of those at the next election.
The model also shows Labour gaining more than 20pts on their 2019 result in a number of seats, most notably leading to victories in the aforementioned Ashfield, and Eddisbury, which Labour didn't win even in 1997.
The headline MRP Voting Intention stands at Labour with 45%; Conservative 33%; Lib Dem 10%; Green 4% and Reform 3%.
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes says: “This MRP model highlights both the potential and precarious nature of Labour’s polling lead at the moment.
"Many traditional polls, and this MRP model, show Labour enjoying double-digit leads over the Conservative Party, but one percentage point either way could be the difference between a sizable Labour majority, a small Labour majority, or no majority at all."
He added: "He [Mr Starmer] has an opportunity now to really differentiate Labour from the economic policies of a Truss-led government, and if he can convince voters that it is Labour, rather than the Conservatives, that have the answers to tackle the multitude of issues the country faces, the poll lead Labour have enjoyed throughout 2022 may start to feel more secure than it currently does.”
