Early evening summary
James Cleverly, the home secretary, has triggered alarm in the health and care sectors by announcing sweeping plans to restrict immigration. He said the measures would cut annual immigration by 300,000 and, promoting the plans on social media, the Conservative party described this as the “biggest ever cut in net migration”.
🚨 BREAKING: @RishiSunak just announced the biggest ever cut in net migration.
— Conservatives (@Conservatives) December 4, 2023
Here’s how 👇 pic.twitter.com/8snepqtHM5
In the Commons the proposals were welcomed by Tory MPs, many of whom have been demanding much stricter controls since the publication of figures showing net migration at a record high of 745,000 last year. Cleverly said criticism of the plan from Labour MPs showed the opposition was not serious about wanting to reduce immigration. He also dismissed claims that the plans would exacerbate worker shortages in the health and social care sectors, where employers rely on foreign staff. The impact would not be “significant”, he claimed. (See 4.45pm.) But health and care sector leaders said they were alarmed by the plans. Miriam Deakin, director of policy and strategy at NHS Providers, which represents hospitals and other NHS bodies, said:
With over 120,000 staff shortages in the NHS and over 150,000 in social care, measures that deter people from joining these professions are deeply concerning.
The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan is clear that international recruitment will continue to play a key role in the NHS’s future, alongside domestic training.
We therefore need the health and care sectors to remain attractive not only to domestic workers but also to those educated internationally.
Caroline Abrahams, a director at Age UK and co-chair of the Care and Support Alliance, which represents more than 60 charities, said:
We are worried that older and disabled people in need of care, and their families, will pay a heavy price for the government’s changes to the migration rules from next Spring. It is an open secret that inward migration effectively ‘saved’ the social care workforce last year and, as things stand, anything that undermines that source of support must be a real concern. Too many people in need struggle to access good care as it is, and the risk is that today’s announcement will make the situation worse.
And Prof Nicola Ranger, chief nurse at the Royal College of Nursing, said:
Ministers appear comfortable with tearing apart families to score political points. This cruel sanction will deter care workers from coming to the UK, adding to dire workforce shortages in social care and ultimately piling even more pressure on an overburdened NHS. The home secretary admitted in his own announcement in the Commons that health workers with families will be put off joining our short-staffed health and care services.
Updated
The UK’s return to the EU’s flagship Horizon science research programme was formally signed off in Brussels today by the science and innovation secretary, Michelle Donelan, and her European counterpart, Iliana Ivanova.
“Watch this space because we are expecting this to be incredibly useful tool with some exciting times ahead,” said Donelan.
The return ends a two-year absence from the £85bn programme in a tit-for-tat row over the Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland.
Despite the UK government threatening for years to boycott Horizon and go it alone, today Donelan was brimming with enthusiasm for the programme. She said:
I just think that we as a nation in the UK need to be really ambitious and seize this opportunity. And, and that’s why we are, as a department, really going to invest the time and the energy to try and make sure that our participation punches above its weight. This is, as I said before, something that the sector actively lobbied for. So we’ve got no concerns about that. But we really want to maximise this opportunity.
Among the initiatives is a campaign to attract people who have never engaged with Horizon before with £10,000 in “pump priming” funding available to first timers, she announced.
Updated
This is from Stuart Hoddinott, a researcher at the Institute for Government thinktank, on the immigration crackdown.
Hard to overstate how much the social care sector has relied on int'l staff since 2021/22
— Stuart Hoddinott (@StuartHoddinott) December 4, 2023
These plans will severely limit that source of workers without a plan to replace them. Govt has effectively announced that it's giving up on expanding care capacity before the election https://t.co/FzwKP55mI1 pic.twitter.com/ttMPPecS88
Starmer is 'running late' in requesting talks with civil service about implementing Labour's policies, IfG thinktank warns
Keir Starmer’s Labour party is running late in seeking formal talks with senior civil servants ahead of the next general election, a thinktank has warned.
The Institute for Government (IfG) urged Labour to request the process “as soon as possible” or risk seeing their policies delayed if they were to win.
Emma Norris, deputy director of the IfG, suggested Labour’s delay at requesting the talks could mean the party is unsure on what it wants to offer the country.
Usually, transition access talks start around 16 months before the end of parliament in the run-up to a predictable election.
Before the 1997 election, Tony Blair’s team came in with “big plans” for the minimum wage, Bank of England independence and devolution “quite ready to go on day one”. Starmer’s office is understood to be not planning to request the access talks until the new year at the earliest.
Norris warned the party would not be able to “move fast enough” with its priorities and could fall into some of the “bear traps” of poorly thought-through policy.
“Labour has its five missions prepared and lots of smaller policies but they haven’t gone far enough on prioritising meaty policies that will sit under the missions,” Norris told reporters.
The IfG also urged Labour not to make any more reshuffles ahead of the next election, to maintain a level of policy experience.
“Even if the election happens at the last possible moment, they’re running late,” Norris said.
Updated
Christopher Hope from GB News says, even with the new measures, the government will not cut immigration to the level promised in the 2019 manifesto.
Senior Government sources point to the fact that a net 670,000 a year came to the UK in the 12 months to June this year, meaning that the new net target is 370,000 a year - still far outstripping the 2019 manifesto pledge.
— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) December 4, 2023
They add that 2022 was an unusual year because of the increase in net migration Ukraine
— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) December 4, 2023
SNP says government's immigration crackdown will harm NHS in Scotland
The SNP says the immigration controls will be bad for Scotland. Chris Stephens MP, the party’s immigration spokesperson, said:
It is clear that the biggest threat to Scotland’s NHS is Westminster control. Scotland is already suffering from labour shortages as a result of Westminster’s Brexit and migration policy – particularly within our public services – and the steps set out today will further hamper our ability to recruit from overseas.
Both the Tories and Labour are wedded to this flawed plan along with the privatisation of our NHS. Just yesterday Sir Keir Starmer praised Margaret Thatcher – the architect of NHS privatisation – of delivering “meaningful change” to the UK.
Scotland’s NHS is not safe under Westminster control no matter the colour of its government. Independence is the only way we can get rid of Westminster governments we don’t vote for for good and create an immigration system that meets the needs of Scotland’s public services.
In Scotland the public debate about immigration is quite different from in the rest of Britain because Scotland’s population is projected to fall over the long term. The SNP says that shows why Scotland needs higher immigration, and it has repeatedly called for border policy to be devolved to Edinburgh.
Neil O’Brien (Con) asks Cleverly if he will publish the analysis that led him to claim that these measures would reduce immigration by 300,000.
Cleverly says he is happy to put these figures in the House of Commons library (which, in practice, means making them public).
Unison accuses government of 'playing roulette with essential services' to placate Tory MPs and far right
Echoing what she said on the World at One earlier (see 1.39pm), Christina McAnea, the general secretary of Unison, which represents many care workers, has put out a statement describing the Cleverly proposals as a “total disaster for the NHS and social care”. She said:
These cruel plans spell total disaster for the NHS and social care. They benefit no one.
Migrant workers were encouraged to come here because both sectors are critically short of staff. Hospitals and care homes simply couldn’t function without them.
There’s also a global shortage of healthcare staff. Migrants will now head to more welcoming countries, rather than be forced to live without their families.
The government is playing roulette with essential services just to placate its backbenchers and the far right. But if ministers stopped ducking the difficult issues, and reformed social care as they’ve long promised, there wouldn’t be such a shortage of workers.
None of this is rocket science. Fund care properly and raise wages, and the sector becomes a more attractive place to work. But take away the migrant workers currently stopping care from going under and it collapses.
Updated
Colin Yeo, a barrister specialising in immigration, says the decision to raise the minimum income for family visas to £38,700 (see 4.47pm) will make it impossible for some Britons to bring foreign spouses to the UK.
Many British citizens will be unable to live legally in the UK with their spouses. This is twice the national minimum wage. A lot of people simply cannot afford it, no matter how hard they work.
Many British citizens will be unable to live legally in the UK with their spouses. This is twice the national minimum wage. A lot of people simply cannot afford it, no matter how hard they work. https://t.co/WzUoe4oef6
— Colin Yeo (@ColinYeo1) December 4, 2023
This is an absolute scandal yet the headlines are currently focused on care visas! I’m sorry, but migrant workers can choose not to come. This impacts British citizens and their families, who have no choice about who they fall in love with. It’s FAR more important.
This is an absolute scandal yet the headlines are currently focused on care visas! I’m sorry, but migrant workers can choose not to come. This impacts British citizens and their families, who have no choice about who they fall in love with. It’s FAR more important. https://t.co/JomzOuTiM9
— Colin Yeo (@ColinYeo1) December 4, 2023
Cleverly says all the Labour MPs asking questions are opposing the proposals he has just announced, even though Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, says Labour is in favour of controlling immigration.
Neil Coyle (Lab) says this is another example of the government’s economic future being in the hands of Tory headbangers.
Tim Farron, the former Lib Dem leader, says these plans will be greeted “with absolute horror” by the Lake District tourism industry.
Cleverly says ministers have discussed these plans with the Lake District Tourist Board. He says the government has analysed the impact of these plans.
John Redwood (Con) says paying people more is the right model for these occupations where there are shortages.
Cleverly agrees. He says Labour would do the opposite.
Cleverly rejects call for cap on overall number of immigrants
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, asks Cleverly if he favour a cap on overall numbers.
Cleverly says, while he can see the case for one, managing one would be difficult. He sys a cap would not differentiate between a child and and investor.
Cleverly claims ban on dependants will not have 'significant' impact on number of foreign care workers coming to UK
Damian Green, the former first secretary of state, and a former immigration minister, says he particularly welcomes the crackdown on abuse by dependants, and the increase in the minimum income rate for family visas.
He says as immigration minister 10 years ago he introduced that minimum income threshold. He was told it would be terrible for family life, but those predictions turned out to be untrue, he says.
But he asks what the impact will be on the care sector.
Cleverly says he has looked at this in great detail. The current scheme has led to the displacement of British workers.
Globally, there is surplus demand, he says.
Individuals with a family may be dissuaded from coming to the UK, he claims, but not potential workers without dependants.
We do not envisage there being a significant reduction in demand [for care visas].
Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, points out that only recently the government was adding occupations to the shortage occupation list.
And she challenges Cleverly to explain what the government is doing to address skills shortages. The government does not have a plan, she says.
Cleverly says new restrictions on immigration to come into force next spring
Cleverly is now covering the other measures.
UPDATE: Cleverly said:
We will stop immigration undercutting the salary of British workers. We will increase the skilled worker earnings threshold by a third, to £38,700 from next spring in line with the median full-term wage for those kinds of jobs.
Those coming on health and social care visa routes will be exempt so we can continue to bring in the healthcare workers on which our care sector and NHS rely.
Thirdly, we will scrap cut-price shortage labour from overseas by ending the 20% going-rate salary discount for shortage occupations and reforming the shortage occupation list.
I have asked the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) to review the occupations on this list because of our new higher-skilled worker salary thresholds, and we will create a new immigration salary list with a reduced number of occupations in co-ordination with the MAC.
Fourthly, we will ensure that people only bring dependants who they can support financially by raising the minimum income for family visas to the same threshold as the minimum salary threshold for skilled workers, which £38,700.
The minimum income requirement of £18,600 has not been increased since 2012. This package of measures will take place from next spring.
Finally, having already banned overseas masters students from bringing family members to the UK, I have asked the Migration Advisory Committee to review the graduate route to prevent abuse, to protect the integrity and quality of the UK’s outstanding higher education sector.
It needs to work in the best interests of the UK, supporting the pathway into high quality jobs for the global talent pool but reducing opportunities for abuse.
Updated
Foreign care workers to be stopped from bringing dependants with them, Cleverly says
Cleverly is announcing the measures in detail.
First, he says he will stop the “abuse” of health and care visas.
The government will stop overseas care workers from bringing family dependants and care firms will have to be regulated by the Care Quality Commission in order for them to sponsor visas.
UPDATE: Cleverly said:
The first of our five points will be to end the abuse of the health and care visa. We will stop overseas care workers from bringing family dependants and we will require care firms in England to be regulated by the Care Quality Commission in order for them to sponsor visas.
Approximately 120,000 dependants accompanied 100,000 care workers and senior care workers in the year ending September 2023. Only 25% of dependants are estimated to be in work, meaning a significant number are drawing on public services rather than helping to grow the economy.
We recognise that foreign workers do great work in our NHS and health sector, but it is also important that migrants make a big enough financial contribution.
Therefore, we will increase the annual immigration surcharge this year by 66% from £624 to £1,035 to raise on average around £1.3bn for the health services of this country every year.
Updated
Cleverly tells MPs crackdown will cut annual immigration numbers by around 300,000
Cleverly says the public expect the government not just to stop the small boats, but to cut legal immigration too.
From January 2024 the right of international students to bring in dependants will be stopped unless they are on a postgraduate research programme, he says.
But today new measures are being announced, he says.
He claims the measures will reduce immigration by about 300,000 compared with last year’s figures.
UPDATE: Cleverly said:
From January 2024, the right for international students to bring dependants will be removed unless they are on postgraduate courses designated as a research programme. We always want to attract the global brightest and best.
We have also stopped international students from switching out of the student route into work routes before their studies have been completed. These changes will have a tangible impact on net migration.
Around 153,000 visas were granted to dependants of sponsored students in the year ending September 2023, today I can announce that we will go even further than those provisions already in place, with a five-point plan to further curb immigration abuses that will deliver the biggest ever reduction in net migration.
In total, this package, plus our reduction in students dependants will mean around 300,000 fewer people will come in future years than have come to the UK last year.
Updated
Cleverly tells MPs government taking 'more robust action' than any previous administration to bring down immigration
James Cleverly, the home secretary, starts by saying legal migration is too high. The government is taking “more robust action” than any previous government to bring it down, he says.
Hunt claims it is 'economically illiterate' for Starmer to say £28bn green jobs investment would comply with fiscal rules
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, says Keir Starmer is wrong to claim that Labour would be able to spend £28bn on its green jobs investment programme while staying within the fiscal rules to bring down debt. (See 2.45pm and 3.09pm.) In a response to Starmer’s speech and Q&A issued by Conservative party HQ, Hunt said:
It is economically illiterate to say you can meet a fiscal rule to get debt falling whilst at the same time increasing borrowing by £28bn a year. The sums simply don’t add up.
The result of that kind of borrowing splurge would be higher taxes, higher debt interest and lower growth – on the very day Sir Keir Starmer said growth would be his ‘obsession’.
Labour has not given full details of the proposed £28bn investment, or exactly when it would start. But party sources have indicated that it would include existing government capital spending on green schemes, which would reduce the level of borrowing required.
The UK government is exploring the possibility of using alternative routes to deliver aid to Gaza, including by sea, Leo Docherty, a Foreign Office minister told MPs.
Responding to an urgent question in the Commons, Docherty said 74 tonnes of aid have been delivered by the UK via aircraft to Gaza, adding: “We are also actively exploring other aid routes, including by sea.”
He told MPs:
The UK will continue in conjunction with our international partners to advocate internationally on humanitarian priorities, these include respect for international humanitarian law, the need for fuel, humanitarian access, humanitarian pauses, and an increase in the types of assistance.
We are urgently exploring all diplomatic options to increase this, including urging Israel to open other existing land borders, such as Kerem Shalom.
Updated
Keir Starmer’s speech this afternoon has gone down badly with the left because of what he said about public spending. (See 2.35pm.)
This is from Lydia Prieg, the head of economics at the New Economics Foundation, a leftwing thinktank.
Twelve years of public spending cuts and privatisation have left the foundations of our economy weak and unstable. Crumbling infrastructure and decimated public services are colliding with an ageing population. Starmer is kidding himself if he believes he can maintain current living standards, let alone improve them, without more government spending and investment.
It’s clearly important to manage public finances responsibly, and any government will have plenty of ways to safely raise funds for vital public spending. They could start with some easy choices, like undoing tax cuts that benefit the very richest. Reversing the tax cuts in last month’s autumn statement would raise around £20bn. When it comes to borrowing, recent UK bond sales show there is market demand for more UK government debt, and we still have a debt-to-GDP ratio well below similar economies like the US, Japan and Italy.
And this is from a spokesperson for the leftwing Labour group Momentum.
Coming a day after praising Thatcher and her legacy, these are deeply worrying remarks from Keir Starmer. The Tories’ economic strategy of austerity and privatisation has pushed Britain to the brink, with our public services on their knees and millions of people up and down the country struggling to make ends meet.
Yet instead of laying out a popular alternative based on public ownership and public investment, the Labour leadership is adopting the Tories’ failed economic approach. Starmer’s stance isn’t just out of touch with Labour members and voters – but with the public too. Tragically, by following this recipe for failure, he risks making a rod for his own back in government.
Updated
SNP accuses Starmer of promoting 'Thatcherite future' after speech ruling out swift rise in government spending
The Scottish National party claims Keir Starmer’s comments over the weekend, praising Margaret Thatcher and referring (in his Sunday Telegraph article) to the “possibilities of Brexit”, and his speech this afternoon, ruling out a swift rise in public spending (see 2.35pm), show he is not in tune with Scotland’s values. In a statement Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, said:
In the last two days Sir Keir Starmer has not only celebrated Thatcher’s damaging legacy, he is now promoting a Thatcherite future.
Once again, it is clear that his values are far, far removed from Scotland’s values – and that only with independence can Scotland be the fairer, wealthier nation we all want to see.
In a week where he praised Margaret Thatcher – a prime minister who devastated the lives of tens of thousands of Scots – and Brexit, a Tory-driven obsession which has wreaked havoc on businesses and households, it’s clear that Sir Keir Starmer and Labour’s values do not align with Scotland.
Austerity, Brexit and Margaret Thatcher – these are the values that motivate Westminster politicians like Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, and Scotland wants none of it.
Updated
Q: Would you intervene to stop the BBC licence fee going up?
Starmer says this is a matter for the government. He says Lucy Frazer, the culture secretary, was speaking about that this morning.
And that’s the end of the Q&A.
Starmer says when he spoke about Margaret Thatcher at the weekend, he was making the point that her government had a sense of purpose. He says this government does not seem to have a sense of purpose.
Updated
Starmer says he is 'really confident' Labour will increase growth enough to allow £28bn green jobs investment
Q: If growth is slower than expected, is it the case you might not reach the £28bn green jobs investment because of the fiscal rules?
Starmer says he wants to reach the £28bn in the second half of the parliament.
It will be subject to the fiscal fules. But so will everything, he says.
He says last year the government tried unfunded spending announcements. That did not work well. And people are paying the price, he says.
But, he says, he is “confident, really confident” that he will be able to reach the £28bn because he is doing the work on growth that is needed.
Updated
Q: What can you offer people that is positive?
Starmer says he wants to offer people higher living standards, an energy transition that offers opportunities, an NHS that will last for decades, and opportunities for young people.
He says most people think everything is not working. That is because there has been too much chopping and changing. He says he wants no more sticking plaster politics, and a long-term approach instead.
Starmer says Labour is a party 'that always invests in public services'
Q: The autumn statement plans imply real-terms spending cuts in some areas. So can you assure people they are not facing a new era of austerity?
Starmer says, if you look at Labours’s record in government, you will see a record of investment in public services. He goes on:
We are a party that always invests in public services.
The government is “salting the earth”, he says. It is acting in the party interest, not the national interest.
They even briefed out that that is what they were doing ahead of the king’s speech, he says.
Q: Will you rule out departmental spending cuts after the next election?
Starmer says he is a big believer in public services. But public services do need reform, he says.
He says they need to be delivered in a different way. They operate in silos too much, he says.
Updated
Starmer defends criticising Tories for failing to realise 'possibilities of Brexit'
Q: In your Sunday Telegraph article you said the Tories had failed to realise “the possibilities of Brexit”. What are those possibilities?
Starmer says growth was a problem before Brexit. So it is wrong to say Brexit is the source of all economic problems.
He says in some areas, like life sciences, Brexit means the UK can be more “agile”.
But he also says the UK needs a better relationship with the EU.
Q: The Resolution Foundation report talks about a UK protocol, like the Northern Ireland one. Do you favour that?
Starmer says the Northern Ireland protocol was “a step in the right direction”. He says he does not know if it would work on a UK-wide basis.
Updated
Q: Borrowing to invest in the green transition was a big difference from the government. But now you seem to have given up on that. So what is the difference?
Starmer says he favours a proper industrial strategy. If you go to the government’s website and search for industrial strategy, it will tell you this has been archived. Literally, he says.
Q: Have you given up on redistribution?
No, of course not, says Starmer.
But he says it is important “to recast the way redistribution should work”.
He does not just want a model that focuses on promoting growth in London and the south-east, and then redistributing that wealth.
He says the whole concept of levelling up is built on the understanding that you cannot just build up some places, and leave others with just enough to get by.
Q: What are the big differences between you and the Conservatives? Your policies sound similar.
Starmer says the Tories have had 13 years to promote growth.
On planning, he says this government banned onshore wind, and got rid of the housebuilding targets.
And he says Labour has a genuine partnership with business. It is not just coffee and croissants. They are talking in detail about what Labour might do in a year’s time.
He says he does not want shadow cabinet ministers having discussions in a year’s time they could be having now.
Starmer says if Labour gets growth it wants, it will be able to fund £28bn green investment within its fiscal rules
Starmer has finished his speech, and he is now being interviewed by Zanny Minton Beddoes, the editor of the Economist.
Q: Are you still committed to the £28bn green investment fund. At one point it was £28bn of additional funding. Then it was just £28bn of funding. Now you hardly mention it – it wasn’t in the speech.
Starmer says he wants to create conditions that will ensure every £1 of public investment brings in £3 of private money.
He says the £28bn will be ramped up in the second half of the parliament. It will be subject to the fiscal rules. But, he says, if he gets the growth he wants, he will be able to do the investment he wants within the fiscal rules.
Updated
Starmer says shadow cabinet minsters have been told to be as careful with public money as if 'it's their money'
Starmer says Labour will be “ruthless when it comes to spending every pound wisely”. He says:
There are millions of people in this country right now, who wake up in the morning and know the day will bring a fresh fight for every penny. Just like the last day.
My sister is one of them. I will say to her – let’s go to the pub for lunch.
And she will say, straight away – “I’ll make sandwiches”.
So I have said to every member of my shadow cabinet, when they are drawing up their plans for our manifesto, think carefully about how precious every pound is for the people we must serve.
Hold them in your minds’ eye. And approach the public finances – spending decisions – like it’s their money. Because at the end of the day: it is.
Updated
Starmer says Labour won't be able to 'quickly turn on spending taps'
Starmer says Labour won’t be able to “quickly turn on the spending taps”. He says:
The path to public service investment and keeping taxes competitive.
It will be a hard road to walk – no doubt about it.
Anyone who expects an incoming Labour government to quickly turn on the spending taps, is going to be disappointed.
Starmer say he won’t announce Labour’s spending plans now. But he says the decisions taken by the Tories will constrain what he can do. He says:
While I welcome some of the individual measures in the autumn statement – tax cuts for working people are a good thing – it was also a budget for growth that ended up downgrading growth.
And a budget for tax cuts that confirmed the highest tax burden since the war.
A fiscal sleight of hand. That showed the government is quite prepared to salt the earth of British prosperity, in pursuit of its political strategy.
Now – I don’t think any of you expect me to announce Labour’s spending envelope on this stage, today.
And I won’t.
Nonetheless, it’s already clear that the decisions the government are taking, not to mention their record over the past 13 years, will constrain what a future Labour government can do.
Updated
Starmer says Labour’s approach will be dominated by what Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, calls securonomics.
In a single word it captures all the insights that will shape this era – and our approach.
First, that the stability we enjoyed during “the great moderation” – that period of calm before the financial crash, and the conditions it provided for hyper-globalisation – that era is over.
Cooperation and trade must now respect a mutual need for security.
Second, that broad-based growth – economic security for every community – is now the only way to a stable politics and national unity.
In short, we have to deliver on levelling up. We have to provide a more secure foundation for working people to get on, with cheaper bills, more home ownership and stronger worker rights.
But most of all, we have to provide sustained economic stability.
Updated
Starmer says growth will be the priority for Labour if it wins the election.
The defining purpose of the next Labour government, the mission that stands above all others, will be raising Britain’s productivity growth.
A goal that for my Labour party will be an obsession. That’s a big change for us.
Having wealth creation as your number one priority, that’s not always been the Labour party’s comfort zone – trust me!
But that’s the change I knew was necessary, that’s the change I’ve delivered, and my party is united behind it.
Updated
Starmer says falling living standards means UK faces 'cultural trauma'
Starmer explains what a fall in living standards over the course of a parliament means in real terms.
What this does to a country, the cultural trauma, this needs to be understood.
I go back to the 1970s, growing up in an ordinary working class household.
A decade where we had our fair share of cost-of-living crises.
I know what this feels like.
I know, when you’re struggling to make ends meet, and we were, that the natural response of working people – to work harder and harder – can feel like you’re running faster and faster into a brick wall.
That rising prices create this kind of “what next” anxiety and a fear, and it really is that, of going to the shops because of the decisions you might have to make.
And yet that graph shows, unequivocally, that this is worse than the 1970s.
Worse than the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s.
Worse even than the global crash of 2008 …
What this feels like is a clouding over, a loss, of the future.
Because what my parents felt in the 1970s is that while day-to-day life was often very tough, the future would be a happier place, Britain would be better for your children and hard work, in the end, in the long run, would be rewarded.
And that was a comfort to them, a security blanket – if you like.
But one, which for working people in Britain now, sadly no longer exists.
Updated
Keir Starmer is in thinktank mode. He starts by referring to a graph – this one, from the Resolution Foundation’s report on the autumn statement, showing that living standards are falling this parliament, for the first time in modern history.
Keir Starmer is about to speak at the Resolution Foundation conference. Unlike Jeremy Hunt earlier, he will deliver a proper speech before participating in a Q&A.
Here is our preview story based on extracts from the speech released in advance.
Sir John Hayes, the rightwing Conservative MP who is a leading supporter of Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, told the World at One on Radio 4 that he welcomed the new government curbs on immigration. He said:
The government has finally, it seems to me, seen sense. You can’t have 1.3 million people entering the country over two years without catastrophic consequences.”
There’s been a naivety on the part of some of the people advising government but actually that’s now been put aside and we’re seeing sense, we’re doing the right thing by the British people.
Asked about the impact on social care, he said it was “not that complicated”.
Asked how the sector would manage with fewer foreign care workers, he replied: “The solution is to employ British workers for British jobs. It’s not that complicated.”
Braverman has said that when she was home secretary she favoured tougher controls on immigration but was blocked by No 10.
Updated
James Cleverly’s migration statement will now come before Oliver Dowden’s one on risk and resilience, not after as originally planned (see 12.29pm), we’ve been told. That means Clevelry will start around 4.15pm.
Reducing number of dependants foreign care workers can bring to UK will be 'utter disaster' for care sector, Unison leader says
Christina McAnea, the general secretary of Unison, which represents many workers in the care sector, has said that the tighter immigration rules being announced this afternoon will be an “utter disaster”. She made the point in an interview with Radio 4’s the World at One. Here are the key quotes.
McAnea said the new rules would be an “utter disaster” for the care sector because they would lead to more workers leaving, or failing to fill vacancies in the first place. Referring in particular to the plan to limit the number of dependants care workers can bring to the UK, she said:
Have they spoken to anyone in the sector about this? I suspect not.
This will be an utter disaster, because what they’re doing is basically sending a really strong message to those migrant workers who are propping up our care sector, and indeed in many cases the health sector, and saying: you’re not welcome here, because we don’t want you to bring your families here.
She described the plan to restrict dependants as “cruel”. She said:
I think it is cruel. Remember, this is a predominantly female workforce. So we’re saying: ‘You’re allowed to come here, but you can’t bring any children, or a child, if you’ve got them.’ And to those who are already here, who do have dependants, when they come to renew their visa, presumably they will be told you have to send your children back again. What do you think is going to happen? I suspect most of them will leave.
She called for a major improvements in the way care workers are treated, including better pay. People were leaving because they could earn £2/3/4 an hour more working in a supermarket, she said. She said a national care service was needed.
Here is Rajeev Syal’s story about what James Cleverly is set to announce.
Updated
Yesterday the Sunday Times splashed on a story saying that Rwanda would get at least £15m from the UK as part of a move to clinch the new treaty being signed between the two countries. Rishi Sunak believes that upgrading the deportation agreement into a full treaty will help to address some of the concerns that led to the supreme court saying the policy was unlawful.
Sunday TIMES: “Rwanda’s extra £15m to seal migration deal” #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/omB00nNF2R
— Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) December 2, 2023
At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokesperson played down the story, but without ruling out extra money going to Rwanda. Asked about the £15m figure, he said:
Certainly I don’t recognise that figure of £15m, there’s been no request for additional funding for the treaty made by Rwanda, or not offered by the UK government.
At the Commons home affairs committee last week Sir Matthew Rycroft, the permanent secretary at the Home Office, said the deportation deal did envisage further payments going to Rwanda every year, on top of the £140m already paid.
The government is expected to publish the new treaty, and also details of the legislation it wants to pass to enable Rwanda deportations to go ahead despite the supreme court ruling, later this week. The spokesperson would not say when, but he told journalists: “We are still working urgently on both the treaty and emergency legislation and we will set out more information in due course.”
Updated
No 10 says immigration laws being tightened to tackle 'abuse in system'
At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokesperson would not answer questions in detail about the immigration announcement, saying that James Cleverly would be setting out the plans in parliament later.
But the spokesperson said that net migration figures were too highly partly as a result of “abuse in the system” and that “that’s what we will clamp down on”.
He said, by abuse, he was referring to “changes that were introduced over successive years”. Asked if he was referring to the rules about the number of dependants that people with visas can bring to the UK, he replied: “That’s a specific area I think the home secretary will talk to.”
In its report last month which said that net migration reached a record 745,000 in the 12 months to the end of 2022, the Office for National Statistics said:
There have also been changes in the number of dependants coming to the UK; in YE [year ending] June 2019, dependants accounted for 6% of non-EU student immigration and 37% of non-EU work immigration, which increased to 25% and 48%, respectively in YE June 2023.
Updated
The Commons authorities have announced that there will be two statements in the chamber this afternoon, and an urgent question. The schedule means James Cleverly won’t deliver his migration statement until around 5.15pm, or possibly later. Here are the estimated timings.
3.30pm: Urgent question from Lisa Nandy, the shadow development minister, on Gaza.
Around 4.15pm: Oliver Dowden, the deputy PM, makes the government’s annual statement on risk and resilience.
Around 5.15pm: Cleverly makes a statement on legal migration.
Updated
Cleverly to announce big hike in salary requirement for migrants as part of measures to cut immigration
James Cleverly, the home secretary, will unveil a package of measures intended to bring down net migration after figures hit a record high, PA Media reports. PA says:
He is expected to tell the Commons this afternoon that the minimum salary requirement for a skilled worker from overseas will be significantly hiked to around £38,000, a Whitehall official said.
The increase from £26,200 a year for migrants coming to Britain was said to feature in a wider package to be announced as Rishi Sunak comes under huge pressure.
The prime minister has vowed to “do what is necessary” to bring down net migration in the wake of an official estimate saying it had reached a record of 745,000 in 2022.
Updated
Here are tweets from two experts sceptical of the JL Partners polling highlighted earlier (see 10.19am) about how Reform UK is eating into the Conservative party vote.
From Keiran Pedley, a pollster at Ipsos
Reform UK by election performance 2019-23 parliament
— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) December 4, 2023
Average performance
2023: 3.65%
2022: 2.18%
2021: 2.58% (inc. 6.6% where Richard Tice stood in Bexley & Sidcup)
Obviously 'where' by elections are is important.
But they've broken 5% twice this parliament. Food for… pic.twitter.com/Ly6FhQHxlX
From the FT’s Stephen Bush
That isn't the biggest reason to be highly sceptical of this JL Partners' study: that's (completely unexplained) decision to exclude at least five regular UK pollsters, including one (Ipsos) which has the lowest Reform score, but it is one reason: https://t.co/ztt8RZH99F
— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) December 4, 2023
Hunt rejects claim UK economy suffering from 'broken leg', saying it's more of sprained ankle
During his Q&A at the Resolution Foundation conference, it was put to Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, that the Resolution Foundation report showed economy was suffering the equivalent of a “broken leg”. He said he did not accept that description. It was more of a sprained ankle, he said:
Sometimes we forget that other countries also have the things that they need to improve.
I think we shouldn’t lose confidence that we do some things absolutely amazingly. I know he’s controversial in other ways but when Elon Musk was here three weeks ago, he said there were only two centres in the world for AI, San Francisco and London.
We’ve got a lot going for us, so if we’re going to go into dealing with the sprain, rather than the broken leg, then let’s do so from a perspective of positivity.
Updated
MPs have launched an inquiry into the state of children’s social care in England amid growing warnings children are suffering from a lack of foster carers, and that private companies are profiting from the taxpayer by charging up to £63,000 a week for single social care placements.
The House of Commons education select committee launched the inquiry with figures showing the number of children supported by social services is up 30% since 2010 and the number of care leavers facing homelessness is on the rise.
The committee chair, Robin Walker, said the MPs would ask “whether the government needs to go further and faster” with changes to how the country’s most vulnerable children are cared for.
Last week, the Guardian reported a warning from councils that they are being “held to ransom” by private care providers, as it emerged the taxpayer has been paying as much as £3.3m a year for single children’s social care placements. The Department for Education has identified “looked-after children market failure” as a key risk.
And today, child protection experts called for an urgent nationwide hunt for thousands of new foster carers after a net loss of 1,000 families in the past year and a record number of children being placed far from home.
The inquiry will get under way in earnest in 2024 and evidence can be submitted until 15 January.
Updated
This is what Jack Elsom and Ryan Sabey say in their Sun story about the announcement that is coming this afternoon on measures to cut immigration.
The PM is expected to dramatically hike the salary requirement for overseas workers to £38,000 alongside further limits on them bringing family.
He has been under enormous pressure to get tough after figures showed 745,000 came to Britain last year …
The current minimum salary for foreign workers is just above £26,000.
And this is what Charles Hyman and Ben Riley-Smith report in their Telegraph story.
It is understood that the number of dependants that social care workers are allowed to bring into Britain will also be scaled back.
Home Office figures showed that visas granted to foreign health and social care workers more than doubled to 143,990 in the year to September. Those migrants brought in a total of 173,896 dependants.
The total number of NHS and social care visas may also be limited, as proposed by Mr Jenrick under a five-point plan to reduce net migration.
The fifth proposal is expected to increase the minimum £18,600 income required for a British citizen to bring a spouse or dependant into the UK on a family visa.
There will also be an overhaul of the shortage occupation list, under which companies can pay foreign workers in shortage areas 20 per cent below the going rate.
Sources said it would be “widely scrubbed” with a high bar set for any exceptions. There had been concerns that ending the exemption for care workers could worsen severe shortages in the care sector.
These proposals are largely in line with measures that Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, has reportedly been pushing No 10 to adopt. But Jenrick reportedly favoured raising the minimum salary threshold for a work visa to £35,000. Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, and Boris Johnson, the former PM, have both been pushing for £40,000 to be the minimum salary threshold.
Updated
Sunak to announce major package of measures to cut immigration later today
Rishi Sunak is going to announce plans to cut immigration today, it is being reported.
The Sun says he will announce that the salary threshold for people wanting to got a work visa to come to the UK will rise to £38,000. The Daily Telegraph is reporting something similar, quoting a Whitehall source as saying: “People will be surprised at how strong a package it is.” This is from the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith.
🚨EXCLUSIVE
— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) December 4, 2023
Major package of policies to reduce net migration being unveiled *today*
- Big rise in minimum salary threshold for skilled worker visas
- Scaling back of health+social care visas
- Overhaul of shortage occupation list
With @charleshymas https://t.co/fJogFgKWZO
It has been confirmed to the Guardian that the announcement is coming later today.
Updated
Q: Why do you think the UK still has a productivity problem when it is good at innovation?
Hunt says productivity is driven by a combination of human capital, businesss investment, regional factors, and “total factor producivity”, which includes the ability to innovate.
The UK has been good on the latter, he says. It has been less good at investment. And, on human capital, it has been good at university-level skills, but not so good at vocational skills, he says.
Q: What will you do to support people in debt?
Hunt says he has promoted the mortgage charter to help people struggling to pay their mortgage.
Minton Beddoes is now taking questions from people in the audience.
Q: Are you worried about the impact of spending cuts on the creative industries?
Hunt says he sees the creative industries as an area of national advantage.
He says there has been an increase in film-making in the UK. The film industry is an offshoot of the technology industry, because special effects are so important.
And he says public service broadcasting is central to what makes the UK attractive.
Q: How can you claim to be the party of planning reform when your MPs keep blocking planning reform measures?
Hunt says all parties have to manage their MPs.
But he claims that, for the last year for which full figures are available, housebuilding numbers were higher than under Labour.
Hunt claims UK has potential to become 'most prosperous 21st century economy' because of innovation record
Jeremy Hunt said the UK could be the “most prosperous” economy this century because of its “untapped potential”.
Speaking at the Resolution Foundation conference, he said the industrial sectors that would grow the fastest were the ones “where we are doing really well”. He said:
If I was going to choose one country in the world that had the most untapped potential to become the most prosperous 21st century economy, it would be Britain.
UPDATE: Hunt said:
If I was going to choose one country in the world that had the most untapped potential to become the most prosperous 21st century economy, it would be Britain.
And why is that? … Most of all because the sectors that are going to grow the fastest this century are the sectors where we are doing really well. Technology is the obvious one. We have a technology sector that’s double the size of Germany, three times the size of France.
If you ask why it is that we’ve grown faster than Germany since 2010, despite their higher productivity, it is because we are actually stronger in innovation. So if we could solve the productivity bit, there would be no stopping us.
And the reason I think that is an omission [from the Resolution Foundation’s report] is because, you spend a lot of time rightly talking about our strength in the service sectors, if you’ve done an equivalent report in the 1980s and not mentioned Big Bang in the City of London, which has gone on to be an area of global leadership for the UK, you’d be ignoring the sector that whose taxes now fund half the cost of the NHS.
So I think you have to think about technology, AI, life sciences, clean energy, creative industries, because those are the sectors that are going to be really important for us going forward.
Updated
Q: Ministers keep changing posts very often. Do you accept that volatility is a problem?
Hunt says that volatility is not a good thing, but he says it was a consequence of Brexit and the parliamentary problems that followed that.
He says he wants to see more stability going forward.
Q: What about institutional reform. The Economist recently published an article saying it was too short-termist.
Hunt says he normally agrees with the Economist, but he suggests he did not agree with that article. He says the argument might be right historically. But he says since he has been at the Treasury he has found it very pro-growth.
Hunt says the government wants to speed up the time it takes to get a connection to the national grid by 90%.
Zanny Minton Beddoes, the editor of the Economist, is interviewing Hunt. She says he has mentioned the 110 policies, but she wants to know what the growth strategy is.
Hunt says he wants to improve productivity. And he says he takes a very clear view as to where the UK’s competitive advantage lies. Outside the US, it has the best higher education sector, and the best financial sector, he says. He says it needs to focus on innovation.
Updated
From Peter Walker
After all that gloom, Jeremy Hunt is now arguing that the UK is *not* doing worse on incomes, equality and growth than equivalent nations, contrary to the evidence we have just seen. Asked if he would do anything differently economically since 2010, he dodges the question. pic.twitter.com/4QNzWI6494
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) December 4, 2023
Jeremy Hunt speaks at Resolution Foundation conference
Jeremy Hunt is speaking now at the Resolution Foundation conference.
He says its Ending Stagnation report is interesting, and asks the right questions.
But he says Torsten Bell’s summary ignored the context – that Britain was affected by the worst financial crisis since the second world war about 15 years ago.
He also says the report was written before the autumn statement – which contained 110 growth measures – was delivered.
Updated
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is about to speak at the Resolution Foundation’s conference. Torsten Bell, the thintktank’s chief executive, has just been presenting the main findings from its 300-page Ending Stagnation report.
Here are two extracts. This one has 10 facts about the economy.
And this one has 10 proposals.
BBC likely to receive below-inflation rise in licence fee
The BBC will receive a below-inflation increase to the licence fee, the culture secretary, Lucy Frazer, has in effect confirmed after Rishi Sunak said he welcomed cuts made by the corporation to its spending and services. Peter Walker has the story.
According to a poll by JL Partners, Rishi Sunak now has even less support from people who voted Conservative in 2019 than Liz Truss did when she was PM. Alex Wickham has written up the findings for Bloomberg and he says it is the rise of Reform UK that is hurting the Conservatives most now. Wickham says:
Just 59% of voters who backed the Conservatives under Boris Johnson at the 2019 election are sticking with the party under Sunak, the report found. That’s down from 74% in August 2022, and from 63% in the aftermath of Truss’s disastrous “mini-budget” in September 2022, which roiled markets and brought about the abrupt end of her premiership. That event had been seen as the polling nadir for the governing Tory party.
It’s the rise of Reform UK, a right-wing anti-immigration party founded with the support of former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, that’s most hurting the polling performance of the Conservatives under Sunak, JL Partners said.
While some 5% of 2019 Tory voters have switched to the centrist Liberal Democrat party, 15% are now backing Reform. That’s around 1.5 million people. Reform has overtaken the Lib Dems as the third party in the North of England, Midlands and Wales, the report found, with the latter party now polling worse than its 2019 result. Around 18% of 2019 Tory votes have gone to Labour.
And this is from James Johnson, the pollster who co-founded JL Partners and who used to work for Theresa May in No 10, on how the Tories should respond to these findings.
Only one option for the Conservatives now: go big on immigration or go home
Only one option for the Conservatives now: go big on immigration or go home https://t.co/usuyyL6jlM
— James Johnson (@jamesjohnson252) December 4, 2023
Tory members view Sunak as worst-performing cabinet minister, survey suggests
Rishi Sunak is seen as the worst-performing cabinet minister by Conservative party members, a survey suggests. The ConservativeHome website has a panel of Tory members that it consults every month and its latest survey results show Sunak at a new low.
ConservativeHome measures net satisfaction ratings and this month Sunak’s ratings are the lowest for any member of cabinet. In their write-up Paul Goodman and Henry Hill say:
The biggest news is that Rishi Sunak, whose ratings have yo-yoed around during the past few months, hits his lowest trough yet in the table. Last month, in our first survey since the Conservative party conference, he was on 7.1 points and ninth from bottom. The month before, in the wake of his net zero speech, he was up to 26 points and eighth. Three months ago, he was in the red on -2.7.
Minus 25.4 is a dire rating – though not as lamentable as the tooth-grindingly terrible -51.2 and -53.1 scores racked up by Theresa May and Philip Hammond in April 2019, let alone Chris Grayling’s record -71.6 score in the same poll. The fact is that during the last month every good piece of news for the government has been followed by bad.
The survey also suggests that James Cleverly, the new home secretary, has seen his popularity with party members dive. Last month his satisfaction rating (+72) put him at the top of the table. But now he is 11th from the bottom, which is probably a consequence of his stance on the Rwanda deal (he does not deny calling it “batshit”) and the claim that he dismissed Stockton as a shit-hole.
Updated
UK would be a climate leader again under Labour, says Starmer
The UK will come back strongly to the world stage to “lead from the front” in tackling the climate crisis under a Labour government, Keir Starmer has pledged, after meeting world leaders at the Cop28 summit in Dubai. Fiona Harvey has the story.
Updated
Starmer was praising Thatcher's effectiveness, not her policies, says Labour's elections chief Pat McFadden
Good morning. Keir Starmer is speaking at a Resolution Foundation conference later where, as Kiran Stacey and Pippa Crerar report, he will say that Labour will not “turn on the spending taps” if it wins the next election. It is a message that firms up what he and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, have been saying for at least a year, best understood as an attempt to neutralise what is currently the Conservative party’s main attack line against the party, but one with colossal implications for how a future Labour government might govern.
Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign coordinator, has been giving interviews this morning, but he has been preoccupied by having to clarify remarks made by Starmer over the weekend praising Margaret Thatcher. McFadden insisted that Starmer was paying tribute to her effectiveness, not her policies. McFadden told LBC:
I remember when Gordon Brown was prime minister, he invited Mrs Thatcher to tea at No 10 and he described her as a conviction politician who saw the need for change, and we had some of the same fuss at that time.
There’s a long history to these things, and what Keir was doing in the speech yesterday was making the same point – that there are conviction prime ministers who changed the country and he wants to be one of those, not a prime minister who drifts along and is buffeted by events.
I agree that she was a conviction politician, but it’s not an endorsement of her policy, and the truth is Gordon Brown praised her, Tony Blair said she was a towering figure, now Keir’s said what he said. Every time a Labour leader acknowledges this, there’s a bit of fuss about it.
On Sky News, asked if he admired Thatcher himself, McFadden said that was “not the word I’d use”. He explained:
I recognise she won [the general election] three times. I would hope if we were going to win elections, we would make change with the same determination but not in the same direction.
Starmer made two interventions at the weekend and in the second, an interview on Radio 4’s Broadcasting House where he was asked about his pro-Thatcher Sunday Telegraph article, Starmer stressed that he admired her sense of purpose. He said:
Thatcher did have a plan for entrepreneurialism; [she] had a mission. It doesn’t mean I agree with what she did, but I don’t think anybody could suggest that she didn’t have a driving sense of purpose.
But in the Sunday Telegraph article, which the paper wrote up as Starmer heaping praise on the former Tory PM, Starmer went a bit further. He wrote:
Every moment of meaningful change in modern British politics begins with the realisation that politics must act in service of the British people, rather than dictating to them. Margaret Thatcher sought to drag Britain out of its stupor by setting loose our natural entrepreneurialism. Tony Blair reimagined a stale, outdated Labour Party into one that could seize the optimism of the late 90s. A century ago, Clement Attlee wrote that Labour must be a party of duty and patriotism, not abstract theory. To build a “New Jerusalem” meant first casting off the mind-forged manacles. That lesson is as true today as it was then.
It is in this sense of public service that Labour has changed dramatically in the last three years. The course of shock therapy we gave our party had one purpose: to ensure that we were once again rooted in the priorities, the concerns and the dreams of ordinary British people. To put country before party.
This implies admiration not just for Thatcher’s skill at using the levers of the government to implement change (which only a fool would deny), but also for her desire to unleash “natural entrepreneurialsm”. And if Starmer accepts the UK was stuck in a “stupor” in 1979, he is implicitly criticising Labour, which by then had been in power for most of the previous decade and a half. These views are still contested in Labour, although even Jeremy Corbyn when he was party leader did not propose trying to reverse the entire Thatcher economic reform agenda.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.15am: Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, holds a Q&A at a Resolution Foundation conference to launch its Ending Stagnation report. He will be interviewed by Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor of the Economist. The full conference agenda is here.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
2pm: Keir Starmer speaks at the Resolution Foundation event.
2.30pm: Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
Updated
