Since the recent rise of One Nation, pollsters have had to deduce not just a Labor-Coalition two-party-preferred tally but also a Labor-One Nation two-party preferred tally. In recent polls, Labor has come in front in both tallies and the pollsters have therefore predicted that Labor will "win" the next election.
By "win", they mean getting a majority in the House of Representatives. The Senate is hardly mentioned. But without getting legislation through the Senate, an Australian government is merely managing, not governing.
Former prime minister Paul Keating called the Senate "unrepresentative swill". Nonetheless, it holds the power to make Labor legislatively impotent after 2028 and that is looking increasingly likely.
