The government announced drastic changes to the national disability insurance scheme (NDIS) on Wednesday that could see up to 160,000 Australians removed from the program by the end of the decade.
Many of the details are yet to be ironed out, which the government says it will do in consultation with the sector. Here is some of what we do know, and some of the questions Labor will need to answer.
How is eligibility for the NDIS changing?
The fundamental change to a person’s eligibility for the NDIS will shift from a diagnosis to “standardised evidence-based assessments of a person’s functional capacity”. But what that means, and who will no longer be eligible for the scheme is unclear.
On Wednesday, the health and NDIS minister, Mark Butler, said the scheme will be brought back to its “original purpose” of supporting people with “significant and permanent disability”.
“Access will be based upon a significant reduction in a person’s functional capacity that impacts their day-to-day living. It will also remove the use of the lists that currently decide a participant’s eligibility based on diagnosis alone,” Butler said.
Martin Laverty, chief executive of disability service provider Aruma and former NDIS board director, said people on the NDIS scheme won’t know for some months whether they will still be eligible for support, because the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) will need to take some time to decide on the “parameters” of what functional capacity means.
“The World Health Organization now has a functional capacity assessment tool. The Australian government, the National Disability Insurance Agency over coming months will need to settle on the parameters for that. And for people uncertain today, we’re going to have to ask for some patience,” Laverty told ABC radio.
What support will I have if I’m removed from the NDIS?
There are two programs which will be administered by the states to support people with a disability who are not eligible for the NDIS – the Thriving Kids program and Foundational Supports.
Both programs were agreed upon at national cabinet meetings between the commonwealth, states and territories. Thriving Kids will support children aged under nine with additional support needs.
It is still unclear what exactly the Foundational Supports will look like, with discussions between states and the commonwealth ongoing.
Australian federation of disability organisations chief executive, Ross Joyce, said there is “scant detail” on foundational supports, but his primary concern with the two programs is ensuring service quality does not differ across the country.
“Worst-case scenario is as things are rolled out there’s gaps, people miss out, and we don’t want to see that happen before anyone is effectively taken off the NDIS … We want to see a consistent model right across the country, or we’ll end up with a postcode lottery,” Joyce said.
Will I be able to review a decision about my assessment?
The government has not announced whether there will be review mechanisms over NDIS package decisions.
On Thursday, Butler told Guardian Australia’s Australian Politics podcast he did not hold a “firm view” and “would understand if the community wanted to come in with that being a key factor they wanted to work through”. Currently, a participant can request the NDIS review a decision or go to the administrative review tribunal for an appeal.
National disability advocacy organisation, People with Disability Australia, said the system already gets decisions wrong “every day”.
“People must be able to challenge decisions … Without that, there is no effective safeguard,” acting chief executive, Megan Spindler-Smith, said.
When will the changes come into effect?
Butler said the eligibility changes would take effect on 1 January 2028, giving the government 18 months to design the functional capability assessment tool. Labor will introduce legislation for the eligibility changes in May.
Joyce said the sector is asking the government for the detail of the legislation to ensure adequate time to review the changes.
The Thriving Kids program is due to begin rollout across the states from 1 October 2026, and will be also be running at scale from 1 January 2028.
There is currently no set timeline on when the foundational supports will take effect, but it will need to be rolled out in tandem with Thriving Kids and the NDIS eligibility changes.
How will the government crack down on NDIS fraud?
Butler announced two key changes to weed out some of the fraud in the system, including the introduction of digital payments and risk-based registration.
It is currently not mandatory to register as an NDIS provider, but from 1 July, more providers who work in personal care, daily living supports and supports provided in closed settings will be required to register.
The government will establish a digital payments system for providers, meaning the National Disability Insurance Agency will “be able to see evidence from every single provider and ensure that they’re paid directly”.
