Prediction market traders on are increasingly betting that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will be out of President Donald Trump's administration before the end of 2026, a surge that comes as she faces intense blowback over her and her department's handling of the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, the second U.S. citizen to be killed by federal agents in the first month of the year.
Kalshi, a federally regulated event-contracts exchange, lists a slate of "yes or no" questions on political outcomes, including whether specific officials will leave their posts by a certain deadline. Kalshi's own "Trump Administration" widget for departures before 2027 shows Noem among the top names by implied probability, alongside Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel.
