Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions and tossed the Atlanta Falcons’ playoff plans into disarray. Brock Purdy couldn’t handle the snow or the Buffalo Bills’ defense on Sunday night. Justin Herbert funneled nearly 80 percent of his passing offense through a single player.
Those were all bad performances. Were any bad enough to make them the most disappointing quarterback of Week 13?
Fortunately, we’ve got a metric that can help figure that out.
Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player. By comparing each passer’s Week 13 EPA against their 2024 average to date we get a better picture of just how frustrating their performances were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com.
This is a metric that gauges disappointment based on what we’d typically expect. Drew Lock was a disaster on Thanksgiving, but he was filling in for Tommy DeVito and, let’s be honest, who really expected much from a guy who couldn’t beat Tommy Cutlets for a starting job?
So who was actually the worst? There were several candidates but only one man can truly call himself the grossest quarterback of Week 13.
Please bear with me for any Twitter embed issues. Our editing software has become a whole problem on that front the past few weeks. Rest assured, if there’s a play alluded to in the text it’s worth clicking through to see if it didn’t make it into the article itself.
6. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.8
Week 13 EPA: -4.5
Difference: 2.7 points worse
Lawrence gets a special dispensation to the gross quarterback list thanks to his ability to be very, very bad in a limited amount of time. A late, post-scramble hit from Azeez Al-Shaiir took him out of Sunday’s loss to the Houston Texans in the second quarter. That was still enough time to account for nearly a touchdown’s worth of negative value.
That may still be gilding the lily. Lawrence had an open Brian Thomas Jr. for what could have been a walk-in Jacksonville touchdown. Instead, it gifted the Texans the field position that would turn into three points in a 23-20 win.
GO UP AND GET IT THEN, STING 😤
📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/Hto75GGg0w
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 1, 2024
Lawrence lobbed five deep balls in 10 attempts and completed as many to his wideouts as he did to Houston defenders. He completed just four of 10 passes for 41 yards and was soundly outplayed by Mac Jones Sunday, which is a very sad statement to write.
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Week 13 EPA: -4.4
Difference: 5.7 points worse
EPA hasn’t been kind to Herbert, greatly underselling his prowess in the pocket for an undermanned Chargers team. He’s spent the bulk of 2024 elevating a Ladd McConkey/Quentin Johnston/Joshua Palmer offense into an 8-4 record and the inside track to a playoff berth.
In Week 13, however, he was mostly forgettable. His victory over the Atlanta Falcons was more a product of the No. 3 quarterback on this list failing more than anything Herbert did in particular. Between passes, sacks and scrambles Herbert dropped back with the ball 33 times and gained 129 yards — fewer than four yards per play.
Somehow, McConkey was responsible for 117 of Herbert’s 147 passing yards (almost 80 percent) and it still wasn’t enough for the Falcons to earn a home victory because of this guy:
4. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.7
Week 13 EPA: -7
Difference: 8.7 points worse
The bloom has slowly been receding from Cousins’s onion as his tenure in Atlanta has worn . Week 13 may have lacked the embarrassment of getting swapped out for Michael Penix in a blowout loss, but it likely felt just as bad for the Falcons.
I mean, just look at this nonsense:
welcome to la, marcus maye
📺 | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/Azos8sSToq
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 1, 2024
The onus is on Cousins to make something happen here, but he’s only down four points with more than nine minutes to play. There’s no great shame in settling for a field goal. Instead, Cousins steps up and lobs the ball to a space where three different Chargers defenders can get to it. They fail to Three Stooges their way to a drop, and Atlanta remains stuck in its hole.
In deference to Cousins, two of his four interceptions came in fourth down situations that would have been a turnover on downs anyway. That doesn’t excuse this Tarheeb Still pick-six that generated 47 percent of Los Angeles’s total points, however.
TO THE 🏡
📺 | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/9EjMGmntzr
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 1, 2024
Cousins has zero touchdown passes and six interceptions in his last three games. All three were Falcons losses.
3. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: -2.4
Week 13 EPA: -11.8
Difference: 9.4 points worse
Rodgers’s awful Week 11 can be summed up in back to back plays. First, this brutal miss of a wide open Garrett Wilson on what should have been a touchdown to make the score 28-7.
You don't often see like 7 yards of separation in the red zone pic.twitter.com/OzJJdaycRi
— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) December 1, 2024
Then, this stunning 91-yard pick six to a 300-pound lineman.
LEO TAKES IT HOME. pic.twitter.com/BzcOiWAM5g
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 1, 2024
There were several Jets chasing down Leonard Williams on that play. Rodgers was not one of them. There was little chance he’d be able to get to the absolutely motoring defensive tackle in the first place, but as a metaphor the whole play feels a bit too on the nose for the Jets’ 2024 season.
2. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: 4.0
Week 13 EPA: -7.3
Difference: 11.3 points worse
Mayfield did the work when it mattered most. With the game on the line, he marched each of the Bucs’ final five offensive drives into scoring position. This turned a 16-10 Carolina Panthers fourth quarter lead into a 23-20 Tampa Bay victory.
For a large chunk between the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the fourth, however, he looked a lot like the quarterback who’d been the NFL’s least efficient passer in 2022.
we see you CHAU
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/5QTdhzshmn
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) December 1, 2024
Mayfield spent 41 touchdown-less minutes letting his former team build a lead before snapping back to life late. In that stretch he threw two interceptions and had one drive (out of seven) that lasted more than five offensive plays. He was 0-for-5 with a sack and a pick in third down situations while the Panthers rallied.
When he came back online, he thrashed the intermediate range (six completions on eight throws between 10 and 19 yards downfield for 118 yards) and led Tampa Bay into a tie with the Atlanta Falcons atop the NFC South at 6-6. But for a while it looked like he might blow it in Charlotte. That was enough for him to nearly top Week 13’s disappointment ranks.
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
2024 expected points added (EPA) per game: 5.4
Week 13 EPA: -6.3
Difference: 11.7 points worse
Turns out, Purdy can’t play in a blizzard.
never let the 49ers play in the snow again pic.twitter.com/ThcmsqazEK
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 2, 2024
Josh Allen found a way to throw a touchdown pass to himself and the Niners’ quarterback couldn’t even hold on to the ball. Ah well, it was a snow game where pretty much everyone on the San Francisco roster stunk. He’s got five games left to rally the 49ers and try to make good on what could be a rapidly closing championship window.
