The Jacksonville Jaguars enter their final game in London hoping to end their overseas trip on a high note as they take on the New England Patriots. Both teams sit at 1-5 looking for their second win of the season and some glimmer of hope as the campaign approaches halfway.
The Jaguars have another opportunity to pick up a win against a lowly opponent and can do so with the resurgent Trevor Lawrence under center. The biggest questions Jacksonville faces now are if the coaching staff can develop a steady game plan and if the offense can display better ball security.
Jaguars Wire takes a closer look at a few key matchups in the Jaguars “home” bout against the Patriots as they look to return to the United States encouragement and intrigue.
Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby vs. Patriots run defense
One of the few bright spots from Jacksonville’s 1-5 campaign to this point has to be the emergence of Bigsby. The second-year tailback from Auburn leads the NFL with 7.2 yards per carry (minimum of 20 carries) and his explosiveness has not gone unnoticed with plus-143 yards over expected, the third-most in football, according to Next Gen Stats.
Bigsby is the total package as he is a shifty runner who generates yards after contact thanks to his low center of gravity and contact balance. Furthermore, he’s become another explosive element for the Jaguars offense that is near the top of the league in big plays.
Bigsby enters Sunday with a favorable matchup against the Patriots’ defense, which ranks in the bottom 10 in RYOE allowed and a below-average run defense in most categories. The Jaguars should stay committed to the ground game this week, especially with an offensive line that has improved in run blocking and overall play in recent weeks.
If Bigsby were to receive at least 15 touches Sunday, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see the young running back have another explosive day and carry Jacksonville to a win.
Jaguars defense vs. Patriots QB Drake Maye
It has become clear that Jacksonville defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen does not have the personnel capable of consistently operating a man coverage-heavy defense. His unit is next to last in points allowed and in the bottom five in most statistical pass-defense categories, including allowing over 225 yards passing in all but one game this season.
If Jacksonville wants to right the ship, Nielsen must change the way he is calling this defense. There needs to be a more balanced approach in man and zone coverage calls. The Jaguars have the personnel defensively to field a sound zone defense, but the players are not often placed in a position to succeed in coverage.
That could excite Patriots rookie signal-caller Drake Maye. However, his outlook could be dampened considering the Jaguars have been adequate in terms of applying pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Jacksonville is one of six teams to have multiple defenders with more than 20 pressures this season, per Next Gen Stats. Pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker have been terrific this season and have shown why they are core defensive pieces for the foreseeable future.
New England leads the league in pressure rate allowed, meanwhile, which might spell trouble for the young Maye.
The No. 3 overall selection from North Carolina may be an escape artist of sorts, but the NFL is a different beast and attempting to evade the likes of Walker and Hines-Allen is never an easy task.
Jacksonville’s path to success begins with getting consistent pressure on a rookie quarterback behind New England’s subpar offensive line.
Jaguars TE Evan Engram vs. Patriots defensive secondary
Jacksonville was without its No. 1 tight end since Week 2 when he injured his hamstring in pregame warmups before their loss to Cleveland. In his return last Sunday, Engram showed why he’s a crucial piece to the team’s offense, hauling in 10 catches for 102 yards.
Engram is a versatile tight end who has yet to lose an ounce of his athleticism and play-making ability as he has gotten older. Since 2022, he has aligned in the slot at the sixth-highest rate among players at his position with at least 800 snaps, per Next Gen Stats. The Jaguars have also shown they are willing to move him all over the formation as an H-back, fullback, and big slot.
This will pose an issue for the Patriots, who have allowed the seventh most yards per attempt to tight ends in the slot this season. The days when New England was an above-average defensive unit are over and its secondary has been struggling for most of the season, another reason why this looks to be a favorable game for Jacksonville overall.
Engram will once again be a focal point of the offense as long as he stays healthy. Lawrence’s play has improved in the past two weeks, flashing promise that Jacksonville can continue to be a productive offense so long as the unit can protect the ball and catch it cleanly.
