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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Priti Patel repeats call for Tory members to have more say in running party after defeat in leadership race – as it happened

Sir Keir Starmer PMQS Faisal Islam ​​Rishi Sunak Inflation

Patel restates call for members to have greater say in running Tory party after being eliminated from leadership contest

Priti Patel has released a statement on X following her elimination from the Tory leadership contest. In it she renews her call for party members to have “ a greater role in the running our party”. She has not endorsed any of her rivals.

Not all Conservatives agree the members should have more power. William Hague was the leader who changed the party rules to ensure the leader is elected by members, not MPs, but now he believes that was not such a good idea. Writing in the Times this week, he said:

Some [leadership candidates] are promising more power for party members, but let me advise them — from the person who set off down that road long ago — this will not be the change for which the wider electorate is looking. Voters have a justified sense that the Tories were unable to govern well because of their internal politics, which inhibited decision-making on matters from Brexit policy to prisons. More internal politics will not be the answer.

Back to the Tory leadership contest, and Mel Stride has posted this on social media.

Delighted to be going through to the next round of the leadership contest and very grateful to those colleagues who supported me.

There is all to play for and it’s clear where the ‘Melmentum’ is! I will restore trust and competence and lead us back into government.

Scottish government appears to drop pledge to provide free school meals for all primary pupils

The Scottish government appears to have dropped its pledge to provide universal free school meals to primary pupils, despite the first minister claiming he aims to “lift every child out of poverty”, PA Media reports. PA says:

In his first programme for government since taking on the job, John Swinney announced plans for “significant reform” to public services in order to provide “whole-family support” in the fight against child poverty – which he has said is his overriding goal in government.

But Swinney did not mention in his 30-minute speech in Holyrood a rolling back on his government’s commitment to free school meals.

According to the 47-page document published alongside the speech, the government will “Work towards further expanding free school meals to those in receipt of the Scottish child payment in primary 6 and primary 7”.

The document also said nearly £22m would be made available for “free school meal alternatives in all school holidays for eligible families”.

While the SNP’s 2021 manifesto said: “We will provide free school breakfasts and lunches to every primary school pupil in Scotland, all year round, and for all children in state-funded special schools in Scotland.”

Back to the Tory leadership contests, and at least two of the candidates still in the race have posted messages on X praising Priti Patel, who is now out of the contest. Presumably they are angling for her support.

This is from James Cleverly.

A great colleague, formidable campaigner & a brilliant Conservative Home Secretary.@pritipatel has run a fantastic campaign and deserves huge credit for her hard work. She will be an integral part of the future of our Party.

And this is from Tom Tugendhat.

Priti, you ran a campaign to be proud of.

You are a brilliant conservative and it is a privilege to call you a friend, I look forward to working with you to rebuild trust and win the next election.

Swinney promises 'significant reform' of public services in Scotland to support families and fight child poverty

John Swinney has pledged “significant reform” of public services to provide “whole family support” in an effort to eradicate child poverty, PA Media reports. PA says:

Scotland’s first minister delivered his first programme for government this afternoon, just 24 hours after his finance secretary announced about £500m of cuts.

The announcement, which was clearly hamstrung by the fraught financial situation in Scotland, included little in terms of concrete new action.

But Swinney did pledge to revamp how poverty is tackled.

The SNP leader has already made clear that tackling child poverty is “first and foremost” in his priorities.

“Our goal is to lift every child in Scotland who is in poverty out of it, so, we must do more,” he said.

Here, the first minister stressed the need to ensure a “system of whole-family support” is available – adding this must be “easy to access, well-connected and responsive to families’ needs”.

He added: “Over the coming year, we will work with partners to enable greater local flexibility, so that services can be more easily tailored to the needs of the families they support.”

He said the Scottish government would “consider where greater investment is needed”.

But he stated: “The key objective of the approach we will take forward will be to deliver significant reform of the work of public services to deliver whole-family support extensively across the country.”

Along with changes to public services, the first minister also pledged to introduce rent controls in new legislation, invest £1bn in “affordable, high-quality and funded early learning and childcare” and provide funding for Creative Scotland to restart its open fund, which provides grants to creative artists.

Swinney also pledged to overhaul the rules which govern the conduct of ministers.

The ministerial code, which will be published by the end of the year, will allow independent advisers to initiate investigations into the conduct of ministers, as opposed to requiring the first minister to call for a probe.

Tory leadership contest - verdict from commentariat

And here is some more on the implications of the results in the first round of the Tory leadership contest from journalists and commentators.

From Robert Shrimsley, the FT’s chief political commentator

That feels like it for Tom Tugendhat - expect Jenrick, Badenoch and Cleverly to pull away - TT now battling Stride just to stay in contest

From Chris Smyth from the Times

Tory votes much more widely spread than many thought

Mel Stride outperforming expectations and seriously challenging Tom Tugendhat for One Nation vote

Badenoch the big loser as Jenrick comes top, and presumably picks up a fair number of Patel’s backers

Badenoch’s allies now pitching her as everyone’ second choice with the “broadest base of support across the party” But as often with Tory elections, it may come down who who MPs dislike most - Kemi, Cleverly or Tugendhat

From the Guardian’s Pippa Crerar

Patel’s ejection shows how far her standing among MPs has slipped since she was home sec under Boris Johnson.

Jenrick well ahead given small pool of voters. Badenoch may be disappointed, while Cleverly likely relieved to come close third.

From Adam Payne from PoliticsHome

Some takeaways:

- Jenrick v Cleverly looking a decent bet at this stage *but* there’s a lot to play for

- With that in mind, how they perform at conference could be v significant

- A much smaller parliamentary Tory party means how just one or two MP vote can easily be crucial

From Ben Riley-Smith from the Daily Telegraph

What jumps out

- Chatter Patel was struggling to get the numbers proves true

- Jenrick significantly ahead. 28 votes, six ahead of Badenoch -

Mel Stride’s repeated confidence he had the backing proved true

- Tugendhat only just scrapes into fourth spot.

Battle to make final4 now

From Sam Freedman, writer, Substacker and Prospect columnist

The main takeaway from that first ballot is MPs are not particularly enthused about anyone, don’t know who will win, but do know all the candidates have obvious weaknesses.

From Sunder Katwala, head of the British Future thinktank

Nb, 25 votes for the final four and 41 votes guarantees the top two. There is now as much chance as Jenrick-Cleverly or Badenoch-Cleverly as there is of Jenrick-Badenoch in my view

Tory leadership contest, first round results - snap analysis

You can’t draw many firm conclusions from these numbers. (See 3.32pm.) There are 14 Priti Patel votes now up for grabs, and you might assume that they would go to a rightwinger. But a) it is not always clear who the rightwingers are (see 3.58pm), and b) MPs vote as much or more on character and personality as on ideology. And what happens after that? We can’t tell for sure who will be in the final four, let alone where the votes of the person who comes last on Tuesday will go.

But here are three conclusions that do stand up, and that weren’t obvious until the results came in (or at least as obvious as they are now).

1) Kemi Badenoch is significantly more popular with party members than with her colleagues. And that could end up being very important, in the final round of voting by MPs, when they have to decide the two candidates to put on the ballot for members. She is seen as divisive and abrasive, and if there are enough MPs voting deliberately to keep her off the ballot, she will be in trouble. The key number is 41, because any MP with at least 41 votes will make it onto the final ballot. (That seems very low, but there are only 121 Tory MPs and so it is mathematically impossible for more than two of them to have at least 41 votes.) Can Badenoch get to 41? Probably, but it does not seem certain.

2) Robert Jenrick has won the summer phase of the contest. A year ago hardly anyone would have bet on him to be the next Tory leader, but he has got the momentum, and today’s ConservativeHome survey (see 11.50am) suggests Badenoch is the only person who would beat him in a head-to-head of members. And if he has a clear lead going into the final ballot for MPs, his campaign could try “lending” votes to someone else to keep Badenoch out. The Boris Johnson camp did this in 2019, when they reassigned some votes to ensure Jeremy Hunt made the final two because Johnson thought Hunt would be easier to beat than Michael Gove.

3) Mel Stride deserves the unlikely survivor award. Commentators have never taken him seriously as a candidate, and it was assumed by many that he would be knocked out of the contest today. But now it does not seem impossible that he could beat Tom Tugendhat to get through to the final four (although it still looks unlikely.)

Updated

My colleague Kiran Stacey has posted this on social media about the Tory leadership contest.

Interestingly, supporters of both Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch are painting their candidate as the more centrist one. They clearly feel that’s where the parliamentary votes lie.

Government will consider 'all options' to put university funding on secure footing (but not quickly), says minister

The government will consider “all options” to put university funding on a secure footing, Jacqui Smith, the minister for skills, told a conference today.

But, in a speech today at the annual conference of Universities UK, Smith did not set out any specific proposals for the reform of higher education funding. And she also hinted that the government might take quite a long time before it does put firm ideas on the table.

She told the conference:

Higher education providers are rightly independent from government and have a responsibility to plan prudently to ensure their long-term sustainability.

However, I am well aware that providers are under financial strain, and that’s why we took immediate action.

Sir David Behan, who carried out the recent independent review of The Office for Students, has now been appointed as its interim chair, and Sir David will oversee the important work of refocusing the Office for Students’ role to concentrate on a number of key priorities, including prioritising the sector’s financial stability. And I will be working closely with the OfS to understand the sector’s changing financial landscape.

And I am committed to making sure that there are robust plans in place to mitigate risks as far as is possible. And we’re determined in government that the higher education funding system should deliver for our economy, for universities and for students, and we are carefully considering all options to deliver a more robust higher education sector, working on it now, but this isn’t something that’s going to happen overnight. It will take time to get it right, and we’re doing it – as I started by outlining – in an era of enormously difficult and tough fiscal choices that we need to make.

This result looks a tad disappointing for Kemi Badenoch, given her clear lead over other candidates in the membership polling. (See 11.50am.) She has posted this on social media.

Thank you to every one of my colleagues who voted for me. This, coupled with all the independent members polls, show that there is huge support for @renewal2030.

It’s time to deal with hard truths today, rather than big problems tomorrow. I look forward to making the case for renewal around the country, with colleagues and members.

Priti Patel out of Tory leadership contest, as Robert Jenrick comes top in first round

Blackman is reading out the results now

Robert Jenrick: 28

Kemi Badenoch: 22

James Cleverly: 21

Tom Tugendhat: 17

Mel Stride: 16

Priti Patel: 14

That means Patel is out of the contest.

The next round of voting will take place on Tuesday next week, when another candidate will be eliminated.

Updated

Bob Blackman, the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, is about to announce the results of voting in the first round of the Tory leadership contest.

Aubrey Allegretti from the Times has posted this on social media about voting in the Tory leadership contest.

Tory leadership camps are seeking to downplay expectations ahead of the first vote.

Allies of Badenoch say there’s a good chance she won’t come top - and that Robert Jenrick has a better chance, due to more consolidated support on the right. But they argue it’s a marathon not a sprint, and about who has the broadest support across the party, so she will still win.

Jenrick’s team are hopeful they’ll get around two dozen votes in the first round, and believe they have more MPs’ second preference pledges for later rounds. His supporters also think Badenoch is divisive and will struggle to get more second preferences.

John Swinney makes statement to MSPs on his programme for government

John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, is making a statement at Holyrood presenting his programme for government for the next year. He starts by saying that it’s 25 years since the parliament opened, that he has witnessed every other programme for government, but that this is the first time he is presenting his own.

There is a live feed on the Scottish parliament’s website.

According to the Sun’s Harry Cole, Rishi Sunak won’t be voting in the Tory leadership contest. That may be one less vote for Mel Stride.

We’re less than an hour away from the declaration of the results in the first round of voting in the Tory leadership contest. No one is pretending that Westminster is on tenterhooks. But there is quite a lot of uncertainty as to what the results will be because only around half of Conservative MPs have publicly declared who they are supporting. The Spectator has a good tally. It has Robert Jenrick on 17 endorsements, Kemi Badenoch on 14, Mel Stride on 7, Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly both on 6 and Priti Patel on 5.

As for what other Tory MPs will do, it is very hard to see. Sometimes it is possible to work out who an MP will vote for in a leadership contest because of aligned political values. But just as often voting behaviour is motivated by friendship, the promise of a job, a long-forgotten grievance, or some other obscure factor unknown to outsiders.

And this is only the first round; not a lot hangs on the result. Some MPs will vote for a candidate they know has no chance of winning, just as a favour.

Patrick Flynn, a data specialist with the polling company Focaldata, has bravely produced a forecast for what the results might. Here it is. If he is right, Mel Stride will come third, and Priti Patel will drop out.

Keir Starmer repeatedly called Rishi Sunak prime minister at PMQs by accident, Times Radio reports.

Asked about the slip at the post-PMQs lobby briefing, a No 10 aide said: “Old habits die hard.”

This is from Lewis Goodall from the News Agents podcast on PMQs.

Nice encapsulation of the real fissures of British politics in 2024 at PMQs today. Labour (the non-pensioner party) arguing for means testing of a benefit (unusual). The Conservatives (as the pensioner party) arguing for universality (unusual), because it involves pensioners (bulk of their voter base).

Here is the PA Media report from PMQs.

Keir Starmer faced shouts of “shame” in the House of Commons as he defended moves to cut winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners.

Conservative party leader Rishi Sunak asked why the prime minister had decided to boost the pay of train drivers earning £65,000 a year while a pensioner living on £13,000 annually would lose their winter fuel payment.

Starmer said “no prime minister wants to do what we have to do” as he argued the “tough decision” was required to “stabilise our economy”.

Tory MPs heckled Starmer with shouts of “shame” throughout his answers to the Commons during Prime Minister’s Questions.

People in England and Wales not in receipt of pension credit or other means-tested benefits will lose out under the policy, which MPs are expected to vote on next week.

It is expected to reduce the number of pensioners in receipt of the up to £300 payment by 10m, from 11.4m to 1.5m, saving around £1.4bn this year.

Sunak told PMQs: “Government is about making choices, and the new prime minister has made a choice. [Starmer] has chosen to take the winter fuel allowance away from low-income pensioners and give that money to certain unionised workforces in inflation-busting pay rises. So can I just ask the prime minister, why did he choose train drivers over Britain’s vulnerable pensioners?”

Starmer replied: “This government was elected to clear up the mess left by the party opposite, to bring about the change that the country desperately needs. Our first job was to audit the books, and what we found was a £22bn black hole.

“So we’ve had to take tough decisions to stabilise the economy and repair the damage, including targeting winter fuel payments whilst protecting pensioners – 800,000 pensioners are not taking up pension credit. We intend to turn that around. We’re going to align housing benefit and pension credit, something the previous government deferred year after year after year.”

Sunak defended his record in government before adding that the prime minister has to “start taking responsibility for his own decisions”.

He said: “If, as he says, the public finances are a priority, it was his decision and his decision alone to award a train driver on £65,000 a pay rise of almost £10,000, and it was also his decision that a pensioner living on just £13,000 will have their winter fuel allowance removed. So can the prime minister explain to Britain’s low-income pensioners why he has taken money away from them whilst at the same time given more money to highly paid train drivers?”

Starmer said Labour has a “massive mandate to change the country”, adding to Sunak: “If he carries on pretending everything is fine for ordinary people across the country, they’re going to be there [on the opposition benches] for a very, very long time.”

He defended the government’s pay offers to end strike action as he said: “You cannot fix the economy if the trains don’t work and you can’t fix the economy if the NHS isn’t working.”

Four things we learned from PMQs

Keir Starmer is delivering his Grenfell Tower statement as I write this, and his tone seems to be spot-on: serious, respectful, sombre, and above all focused on what the report says about the responsibility that government (and the people who serve in government) have for the welfare of the citizens who depend on them. Starmer is committed to government as service, and Grenfell illustrates why that’s an important ideal.

As a result what happened earlier, at PMQs, will get over-looked. It did not really generate any news. But some points are worth noting.

First, the Tories did not cause Starmer any trouble at all. Rishi Sunak asked about the winter fuel allowance, and arms sales to Israel, but he did not sound like someone whose heart was in it, and Starmer rebutted what he was saying quite easily. Tory backbenchers have more to prove, but none of them said anything that made Starmer look uncomfortable either.

And that is partly because, second, Starmer already sounds like someone who has been in the job for years. He may not be blessed with great popularity, but he’s got authority, which in this job matters almost as much – or perhaps more.

Third, it is interesting to note how the dynamics have changed in the chamber, compared with the last parliament. When Sunak was PM, almost all the opposition parties were competing with each other to be the most anti-Tory. But now the Liberal Democrats are the third party, and the government-Lib Dem exchanges (here, and in other sessions in the new parliament) are a lot more cordial than the equivalent Tory-Lib Dem ones. Even the DUP were being quite polite (see 12.24pm), although that probably won’t last.

And, fourth, when Starmer did face a proper, aggressive rhetorical attack, he fended it off very easily. It came from the SNP’s Pete Wishart, who asked him:

After 14 miserable years of the worst Tory government in modern times, the best this prime minister can offer the British people is ‘Things can only get worse’. Well, for him and his calamitous opinion ratings, that is probably true. But why does he think he has had such an unprecedented fall in his popularity? Is it his attacks on the pensioners? Is it leaving children in poverty? Is it the re-emergence of Labour cronyism? Or is it because his austerity is even worse than the Conservative variety?

Starmer replied:

I remember when I used to sit here. It’s a long way up, and there’s very few of them. So I don’t think we need lectures on popularity from the SNP.

That did not answer any of Wishart’s policy points at all, but it it put him down decisively. In the chamber, that’s all you need. Starmer does not seem to like the yah-boo yobbery of PMQs, but he can do it when he has to.

Updated

Starmer apologises to families of Grenfell Tower victims, saying country failed in its 'fundamental duty' to protect them

Keir Starmer is now making a statement about the Grenfell Tower inquiry report. He says:

I want to speak directly to the bereaved families, the survivors and those in the immediate Grenfell community, some of whom are with us in the gallery today. Sir Martin [Moore-Bick] concluded this morning … the simple truth is that the deaths that occurred were all avoidable. Those who lived in the tower were badly failed over a number of years and in a number of different ways …

So I want to start with an apology on behalf of the British state, to each and every one of you, and indeed to all of the families affected by this tragedy. It should never have happened. The country failed to discharge its most fundamental duty to protect you and your loved ones, the people that we are here to serve. And I am deeply sorry.

There is much more coverage on our Grenfell live blog, where Martin Belam is doing the main report from this statement.

Updated

Karen Bradley (Con) asks for an assurance that Staffordshire Moorlands won’t be forced into a devolution deal against its will.

Starmer says local people should be considered. But he implies reform is needed, saying he wants to ensure areas have '“skin in the game” when decisions are taken.

Gurinder Josan (Labour) asks about a stabbing in his constituency.

Starmer says the government is determined to tackle knife crime. Zombie-style knives are being banned.

Tim Farron (Lib Dem) asks about fatal accidents on the A66 in his Westmorland constituency. He says his constituents are worried about the announcement to put an upgrade on hold. Will the government review that?

Starmer says this is a serious issue. The government will conclude its review as soon as it can.

Deidre Costigan (Lab) asks what the government will do to ensure people in places like Ealing feel safe.

Starmer says this is a serious issue. He goes on:

I have heard too many people say that antisocial behavior is some sort of low level issue. It really impacts lives across the country. We have to tackle it, and that is why we will put more police on the streets, we will have more effective powers to deal with antisocial behavior and produce a Young Futures programs to divert young people who are getting into trouble.

Rebecca Paul (Con) says she is a new MP, but all MPs want pensioners to live with dignity. Will the PM consider broadening the eligibility for the winter fuel payment, so more low-income pensioners can get it?

Starmer says this decision has been taken because of the £22bn black hole in the economy. The Tories “broke the economy”, he says. He says Labour was elected to clear up the mess.

Pete Wishart (SNP) says all Starmer is offering people is ‘things can only get worse”. He asks why Starmer is so unpopular.

Starmer says he remembers when the SNP used to sit somewhere else in the chamber (the seating for the third biggest party). So he won’t take lectures from them on popularity, he says.

Alistair Carmichael (Lib Dem) asks why a windfarm in Shetland was recently paid not to produce energy.

Starmer says producers are sometimes asked not to produce energy to balance the grid. There is not enough capacity. But that is not good enough. It is a problem the last government did not fix. He says he will arrange a meeting for Carmichael with a minister to discuss this.

Luke Charters (Lab) asks Starmer to confirm the government will speed up planning.

Starmer says he will do this, “a tough decision [the Tories] were not prepared to make”.

Harriet Cross (Con) criticises the government for the increase in the windfall tax on energy firms, suggesting it will cost jobs in the north-east of Scotland (where she is an MP).

Starmer says he expects oil and gas to play a part in Britain’s energy for years to come.

Emma Foody (Lab) asks about Oasis tickets being resold at a mark-up, and asks if the government will act to stop this.

Starmer says he is pleased Oasis have got back together. But it is “depressing’ to hear of price hikes, and the government is reviewing what it can do to stop this.

Gavin Robinson, the DUP leader, thanks Starmer for visiting Northern Ireland last month and for meeting injured police officers. He asks if the government will increase funding for security in Northern Ireland.

Starmer says it was important for him to go to Northern Ireland, meet injured police officers and thank them. He says this is mainly a matter for the NI executive, but he has been talking to the Police Service of Northern Ireland about this.

Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, asks about an elderly carer who will lose the winter fuel allowance.

Starmer says the government has had to take difficult decisions because of the legacy it was left.

Davey says the number of pensions who cannot afford to heat their homes has doubled since 2019. Will the government help them?

Starmer says the government will do this. It is encouraging more people to claim pension credit. And aligning it with housing benefit (something Rachel Reeves announced yesterday) “will make a massive difference”.

Starmer accuses Tories of ignoring international law on arms exports to Israel

Sunak says the Board of Deputies of British Jews said it was terrible to announce this on the day of the funeral of hostages who were killed. Will the PM reassure the Jewish community that the government stands by Israel?

Starmer says he stands by Israel’s right to self-defence. But the government applied the law in relations to arms exports. He suggests Sunak is inviting him to ignore the law. He goes on:

We either comply with international law or we don’t, but we only have strength in our arguments because we comply with international law. I appreciate the party opposite didn’t think that international law matters.

Updated

Sunak asks what consultation there was with the US about this.

Starmer says the government talked this through with its allies. He says the US has a different legal system.

Starmer says suspending some arms sales to Israel 'legal decision, not policy decision'

Sunak says Starmer won’t tell pensioners how much they would lose.

Turning to Israel, he asks how the decision to suspend some arms exports to Israel will help the release of hostages.

Starmer says he wants to see the hostages released.

Turning to the arms exports, he says Sunak knows full well how this decision was taken. The government is acting on legal advice. Israel should have the right to self-defence, he says. But he says the UK must stand by international law. The opposition know that the guidance is, he says. He says this is “a legal decision, not a policy decision”.

UPDATE: Starmer said:

[Sunak] asks how we arrived at this decision – he knows very well, because the legal framework is clear – the latest guidance was issued in 2021, under his government, and that means that licences have to be kept under review, as they were by his government.

And I think he probably knows the advice that was given to his government, he understands the framework.

We’ve carried out the review in the same way, and come to a clear legal conclusion, and shared that conclusion, the assessment, with parliament.

We will, of course, continue to stand by Israel’s right to self-defence, but it is important that we are a country committed to the international rule of law, that gives us the strength of argument with our allies on important issues.

This is a difficult issue, I recognise that, but it’s a legal decision, not a policy decision.

Updated

Sunak asks Starmer to say how much less a pensioner will get this winter.

Starmer says he will not ignore the need for tough decisions. He goes on:

They’d have walked past [the black hole in the budget], put it in the long grass. We’re not going to do that because we were elected to change this country for the better and stabilize our economy.

Starmer says Tories will be out of office for a 'very, very long time' if they pretend everything fine with economy

Sunak says a train driver on £65,000 will get a pay rise of almost £10,000. But a pensioner on £13,000 will lose money. Why?

Starmer says at the election he did not pretend everything is fine. If the Tories carry on pretending that, they will be on the opposition benches for a “very, very long time”.

We lost an average of 3 million working days a year to strikes under his watch. But you cannot fix the economy if the trains don’t work and you can’t fix the economy.

He quotes Kemi Badenoch on means-testing, saying she is favourite in the Tory leadership contest.

Updated

Rishi Sunak says leadership is about choices. The PM has chosen to take the winter fuel allowance away from low-income pensioners, and to pay public sector workers more. Why has he chosen train drivers over pensioners?

Starmer says the government inherited a mess. It will encourage more pensioners to claim pension credit. And it will align housing benefit with penison credit, to encourage take – something the last government put off for years.

Bill Esterson (Lab) asks about deaths by suicide, and says mental health should get the same priority as physical health.

Starmer says he agrees. He says the government will hire 8,500 mental health workers, and will update the Mental Health Act.

Keir Starmer starts by offering congratulations to British athletes at the Paralympics. He says the deaths in the Channel yesterday were “shocking and deeply tragic”. And he says he will make a statement about the Grenfell report after PMQs.

Martin Belam has covered the first statement Keir Starmer released about the Grenfell Tower inquiry report on his Grenfell blog.

Starmer faces Sunak at PMQs

PMQs is starting soon. Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

Updated

Kemi Badenoch is the clear favourite of Conservative members for next leader, and will be very hard to beat if she makes it into the final ballot of two, according to a survey by ConservativeHome.

The website regularly surveys Tory members, and the latest findings show Badenoch 16 points ahead of her nearest rival, Robert Jenrick. That is up from the 14-point lead she had in the ConHome survey in August, and from the 13-point lead she had in its survey in July.

ConservativeHome also asked members how they would vote in all possible combinations for the final ballot, when the two lead candidates chosen by MPs are put to the members for the final say. Badenoch would beat all her rivals quite easily, the survey suggests. Jenrick has the best chance of beating her, but she is still ahead of him by 51% to 34%, the survey suggests.

Last month a YouGov poll of Tory members also found Badenoch in the lead, with her on course to beat all five potential rivals in the final head-to-head ballots. But YouGov had Cleverly as the candidate who would do best against her, with its poll suggesting she would get 47% and he would get 38% if they ended up in the final two.

The ConservativeHome panel of Tory members is self-selecting. ConHome checks that respondents are actual party members, but it does not weight the results to try to ensure they are representative of the party membership as a whole.

In a recent article on his Substack blog, Mark Pack analysed how accurate the ConHome leadership surveys have been in the past. He said they had accurately forecast the winner in the last three contest where there was a ballot of members and that they were “only a bit less accurate than proper polls”. But he said, in the last two contests, they overstated the level of membership support for the candidate who eventually won. The final ConHome survey had Boris Johnson 7 points ahead of the total he eventually got, and three years later its final survey had Liz Truss 11 points ahead of her actual total. “So if there is another ballot of party members comprised of a ‘populist’ versus ‘technocratic’ contest, and especially if it is looking closer than those above, that is an important caveat to bear in mind,” Pack wrote.

Around 200 migrants tried to leave French shores for the UK this morning – the day after 12 people died trying to make the journey, PA Media reports. PA says:

Angele Vettorello, co-ordinator at Utopia 56, told the PA: “The crossings, it’s not going to stop. Even this morning we saw more than 200 people trying to cross and have been stopped [by police].

On Tuesday some 317 migrants arrived in the UK after crossing the English Channel, according to provisional figures from the Home Office.

The cumulative number of arrivals by small boats in 2024 now stands at a provisional total of 21,720.

This is 3% higher than at this point last year, when the total stood at 21,086, but 19% lower than at this stage in 2022, when the total was 26,692.

Five boats arrived on Tuesday, which suggests an average of around 63 people per boat.

There were 29,437 arrivals across the whole of 2023, down 36% on a record 45,774 in 2022.

Grenfell report blames decades of government failure and companies’ ‘systematic dishonesty’

The embargo on the Grenfell Tower inquiry report has been lifted. Here is our story on what it says, from Robert Booth and Emine Sinmaz.

There is further coverage on our Grenfell live blog.

The Scottish government has put in “as much money as we can” to try to avoid strikes by council staff, Shona Robison, the finance secretary, has said.

Robison said, while it was “disappointing” that Unison, Scotland’s largest local government union, had voted against the latest pay deal, the issue was one for the council body Cosla to resolve. As PA Media reports, her comments came after Unison members voted by 86% to reject an offer which would have given staff either an hourly pay increase of 67p or a 3.6% salary rise, whichever is higher.

That vote means that waste and recycling staff in some areas could walk out on strike, while in some areas non-teaching staff in schools could take action, potentially leading to school closures.

In an interview with BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland, Robison said:

We have put as much money as we can into these envelopes, to try to avoid what is costly industrial action.

Stressing it was a “fair offer” which was above the rate of inflation that had been made to council workers, Robison said the Scottish government and Cosla would “continue to work with the unions to make sure we can avoid costly industrial action where we can”.

But she added:

What is important now is that the employer, local government, continues to discuss with Unison to see if that costly industrial action can be avoided.

A reader is asking for more data on the income of pensioner households, to help understand the reasoning behind the government’s decision to means-test the winter fuel allowance.

@Andrew The debate about the fuel allowance has been too simplistic. We need real data to understand it properly. For example, 80% of pensioners do not qualify for additional benefits - that isn’t a scandal - it’s because they earn enough not to. There are 8.5m who earned above the personal tax threshold so were taxed last year. This isn’t about taking money from the poor, it’s about redistributing money where it is needed!

That is a good excuse to quote a passage from Torsten Bell’s excellent new book, Great Britain? Bell used to be head of the Resolution Foundation thinktank, but he was selected at the last minute as a Labour election candidate and he is now parliamentary private secretary to Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister and one of the most powerful figures in the cabinet.

Bell says:

On 25 November 1997, just months after the New Labour government was formed, Gordon Brown introduced the annual winter fuel payment for all pensioners. He was reflecting the concerns not just of 1990s Labour politicians but of anti-poverty campaigners too: the two great and equal evils to be alleviated were pensioner poverty and child poverty. The inequality surge of the 1980s had left both sky high: in 1990 almost 40 per cent of pensioners and over 30 per cent of children were in poverty. It was no country to grow up or grow old in.

Today, pensioner poverty levels have been halved to stand at 18 per cent. (In contrast, child poverty has stayed stubbornly high.) There are still too many poor pensioners, with increases in recent years, but this is a major improvement that British politics is still struggling to wake up to. For the first time in history, pensioners are now less likely to be in poverty than the rest of the population and, since 2010, the typical pensioner’s income is similar to or even higher than the typical non-pensioner’s. Policy has supported this trend, most recently with the triple lock on the state pension ensuring it rises in line with whichever is higher: inflation, wage growth or 2.5 per cent. But the trend also reflects that those in their sixties and seventies today are more likely to be doing some work, owning their own home and retiring on more generous private pensions than their predecessors. The retired have bucked the income stagnation trend with 24 per cent income growth between 2004/05 and 2021/22, in contrast with 11 per cent growth for the rest of the population.The good news is that economic outcomes for older age groups are far rosier than they used to be.

And here is the chart that illustrates this.

Great Britain? is an exceptionally clear, intelligent, pragmatic and forward-looking analysis of what’s gone wrong with the British economy, and other factors impacting on living standards. And, in terms of what it proposes on policy, it’s markedly more meaty and inspiring than the Labour manifesto. It’s well worth reading. Gaby Hinsliff reviewed it for us here.

Martin Belam is writing our live blog covering the final report from the inquiry into the Grenfell Tower fire, which is being published at 11am. It’s here.

How Kemi Badenoch defended removing winter fuel payments from wealthy pensioners

If Keir Starmer does get asked about Labour’s plan to means-test the winter fuel allowance at PMQs, he may enjoying quoting Kemi Badenoch, the favourite in the Tory leadership contest, in his defence.

As the Telegraph’s Ben Riley-Smith reports, Badenoch proposed means-testing the benefit when she was first running for the Tory leadership in the summer of 2022.

Badenoch said:

There is a lot of dead weight in how we run government,” said the shadow communities secretary in the clip from 2022. “I have people in my constituency telling me that they don’t need the winter fuel payments that we give them because they can afford it. Why do we not have a more sophisticated mechanism for means-testing?

The Badenoch campaign now says she was only proposing removing the winter fuel allowance from the most wealthy pensioners, not from the majority of pensioners (the Labour government’s proposal).

Starmer is vulnerable on this issue because means-testing the winter fuel payment was not included in Labour’s manifesto. But it was in another recent election manifesto – the Conservative party’s in 2017, when Theresa May was PM. Her manifesto said:

We will look at winter fuel payments, the largest benefit paid to pensioners, in this context. The benefit is paid regardless of need, giving money to wealthier pensioners when working people on lower incomes do not get similar support. So we will meanstest winter fuel payments, focusing assistance on the least well-off pensioners, who are most at risk of fuel poverty.

Updated

Keir Starmer faces PMQs as leaked Treasury figures suggest state pension to rise by more than £400 next year

Good morning. Keir Starmer is taking PMQs today. It is only his second PMQs as prime minister, but don’t expect fireworks, high drama and a defining party politial encounter. That is more likely when Starmer gets to face a permanent opposition leader, not Rishi Sunak, who is just working his notice period. And parliamentary business in the Commons today will be dominated by the publication of the final report from the inquiry into the Grenfell Tower fire. Starmer will be making a statement on this to MPs straight after PMQs, but most of our Grenfell coverage will be on a separate live blog.

At his first PMQs, before the summer recess, Starmer came under pressure over the two-child benefit cap. Today the PM is likely to face questions about the government’s decision to means-test the winter fuel allowance for pensioners, and claims that millions of pensions who are not poor enough to qualify for pension credit will struggle to heat their homes this winter when they lose the payment (worth up to £300). As Pippa Crerar reports, MPs will vote on this next week.

Just ahead of PMQs, internal Treasury figures that will help Starmer defend means-testing the winter fuel allowance have conveniently ended up in the hands of the BBC. Ministers have justified removing the benefit from most pensioners on the grounds that pensioners are generally much better off, compared to the population as a whole, than they were when Gordon Brown introduced the winter fuel allowance in 1997. That is largely because of the pension triple lock (introduced by the coalition). The triple lock ensures that state pension rises every year either in line with prices, earnings or 2.5% – whichever is higher.

Next year the state pension will rise in line with earnings, which are currently rising faster than inflation (2.2% in July, although the Septembe figure is the benchmark) or 2.5%. The latest earnings figures are not due out until next week. But Faisal Islam, the BBC’s economics editor, says he has seen internal Treasury figures showing that, on the basis of those earning figures, the state pension will rise by more than £400 next year. In his report Islam says:

The Treasury expects the new full state pension to be boosted above inflation by over £400 a year in cash terms, as a result of the triple lock next April.

The internal working calculations, seen by the BBC, reflect the near certainty that the state pension will be increased by average earnings figures released next week.

This will take the full state pension for men who were born after 1951 and women born after 1953 to around £12,000 in 2025/26, after the £900 increase last year.

Pre-2016 retirees, who may have been eligible for the secondary state pension, are likely to see at least a £300 a year increase in the basic state pension to £9,000 in 2025/26 under the old system.

The Treasury will be hoping that, because £400 is more than £300, MPs will conclude that this will more than compensate for the loss of the winter fuel allowance. It is not that simple, of course, because the rise in the state pension is meant to help with all the multiple extra costs and price rises pensioners face over 12 months, not just the loss of a single payment. But it might take the edge off some of the concern about the winter fuel allowance policy.

Here is the agenda for the day.

11am: The final report from the inquiry into the Grenfell Tower fire is published.

Noon: Keir Starmer faces Rishi Sunak at PMQs.

12.30pm: Starmer makes a statement to MPs about the Grenfell inquiry report.

1.30pm: Conservative MPs start voting in the first ballot for the leadership contest. The ballot closes at 3pm and the results will be announced at 3.30pm.

2.50pm: John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, announces his programme for government in a statement to MSPs.

If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line (BTL) or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.

If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. I’m still using X and I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly. I’m also trying Bluesky (@andrewsparrowgdn) and Threads (@andrewsparrowtheguardian).

I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is too small to correct). And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.

Updated

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