Summary
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Keir Starmer announced that he is resigning as prime minister following days of intense pressure from Labour MPS, paving the way for the newly elected Andy Burnham to take over at Downing Street.
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A new prime minister is set to take over by mid July if Burham runs unopposed, or by the end of August if there’s an election.
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Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, has called for a general election, claiming that it is “ridiculous to pretend that Andy Burnham has any kind of meaningful mandate to lead the country.”
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Wes Streeting has confirmed that he won’t stand as a candidate for the Labour leadership, saying that a contest where candidates spend the summer “exaggerating small differences” would not be good for the party or the country. Having spoken to Burnham, he said he was confident that that there is “a place” for the policies he has been advocating under a Burnham premiership.
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Andy Burnham traveled from Manchester to London to be sworn in as MP of Makerfield. Labour MPs turned up en masse in Westminster Hall to pose for photographs. Chancellor Rachel Reeves was there as well to greet Burnham, though she was not present outside No 10 for Keir Starmer’s resignation as prime minister this morning.
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The UK-EU summit scheduled for 22 July has been postponed to allow new PM more time to prepare. Tributes to Starmer and his premiership have been coming in from European leaders all day, with Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, posting that “European and Ukrainian security is stronger because of you” and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, thanking Starmer for “always being in touch, always engaged, and always striving to do what is needed and what will truly help”.
Lord Neil Kinnock, former leader of the Labour party, was on LBC’s Tonight With Andrew Marr to say that he believes Keir Starmer resigned due to his “really seriously bad judgments, some of which had a real effect on people’s lives”,
“His greatest flaw is his inability to appoint really effective, honest, independently minded advisors,” Kinnock said.
However, Kinnock commended Starmer on his “absolutely irrepressible sense of duty”.
“With the tawdriness of politics, it’s difficult for people to grasp, and I understand why, that there is honour, there is duty, there is commitment, there is integrity, and he showed a lot today,” he said.
Andy Burnham called for a general election during the Conservatives’ leadership crisis in 2022 after Boris Johnson resigned, BBC Verify has revealed.
The new MP for Makerfield declined to answer a question today over whether there should be a general election if he becomes prime minister.
But the fact-checking team at the BBC has found several Tweets by Burnham where he said a general election was needed after Conservative leader Johnson resigned, plunging the Tories into chaos.
“We need to start demanding a General Election at the end of this Tory leadership election”, Burnham said on July 13 2022. “They were all elected on a manifesto promise to level up the North and are all abandoning it.”
Britain will soon have its fifth prime minister in four years. How did we get here and what challenges await Keir Starmer’s successor?
Ben Quinn, our political correspondent, explains what will happen next in UK politics after the prime minister’s resignation.
Former home secretary Alan Johnson was on BBC Radio 5 Live with some advice for Andy Burnham: “Be brave Andy, be brave.”
Johnson’s idea of being brave is for Burnham to “go to the country”.
“It’ll be a very bold thing to do,” Johnson said. “It might set a precedent that others in the future will have to follow, but it will help restore trust in politics, and that is Andy’s big plus. He can’t do that and say, oh, but I’m going to do what every other previous leader who waltzed into Downing Street without any consultation with the public... “…Because if he doesn’t go to the country, he has got to follow the mandate and the manifesto of Keir Starmer and he’s criticised big chunks of that.”
The former home secretary applauded Burnham for standing in Makerfield, calling it “bold stuff”.
“You have to continue that boldness,” Johnson said.
YouGov poll: 62% of Britons say Keir Starmer right to resign
Six in 10 Britons (62%) think Keir Starmer was right to quit, while one in five (19%) think he was wrong, according to new YouGov polling conducted after Starmer announced his resignation.
Of those who voted Labour in 2024, 52% thought he was right to resign while 28% wish he had stayed in office.
When asked how Starmer performed as prime minister, 21% thought he did a poor job while 29% thought he did a terrible job. However, 28% thought he was an “average” prime minister, while 13% thought he was good and 2% thought he was great.
Among Labour voters, 33% thought Starmer did a good or great job while 28% considered him average.
Meanwhile, 39% of those polled believe that Labour MPs will look back in a few years and be glad Starmer was forced to resign but 26% expect they will come to regret the situation.
Among Labour voters, 31% said they think Labour MPs will be glad Starmer was forced to resign, while 34% think they’ll regret it.
The Guardian’s Lucy Hough speaks to senior political correspondent Peter Walker on the latest Today In Focus about today’s happenings:
The latest edition of the Guardian’s Politics Weekly UK podcast is out. It features Pippa Crerar and Kiran Stacey talking about Keir Starmer’s resignation.
That’s all from me for today. Vivian Ho is taking over now.
Keir Starmer gave a private speech to No 10, after his public resignation announcement, thanking them for their work, Emilio Casalicchio and Noah Keate report in their London Playbook PM briefing. They say:
Once the door was closed, Starmer made another speech thanking staff — in particular those who have been there from the start. He said the super-human effort, moments of kindness and extra hours worked were all for the good of the nation and had been noted and appreciated. “It will make a difference to people who you will never meet, who will never know what you did,” he told them, according to one paraphrased account that others confirmed. “That’s what really matters.” He also thanked those who worked in the building to look after his wife and kids, and spent time talking to people one-on-one in the garden over teas and coffees.
Farage condemns Burnham as 'another professional politician'
The JL Partners polling explains why Reform UK is so alarmed about the prospect of Andy Burnham becoming PM. (See 5.01pm.) In a statement issued earlier, Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, said:
I’ve had enough of waiting around. Britain needs change - real change, not another washed-up has-been shoved into place by the uniparty.
If Labour thinks it can shove another professional politician into No 10, it has another thing coming. Reform is ready for an election, and we are ready to deliver radical change.
It’s a bit rich for Farage to criticise Burnham as a “professional politician”. Farage himself was first elected as a parliamentarian (an MEP) in 1999, two years before Burnham was first elected as an MP. And “bit rich” is an understatement when it comes to describing how much Farage himself now earns from second jobs linked to the celebrity he has achieved as politician.
Last week Deltapoll published some polling suggesting that, with Labour led by Keir Starmer, Reform UK would be 8 points ahead of Labour in an election, but with Andy Burnham leading the government instead, Reform’s lead would be just 1 point.
Today another polling company, JL Partners, has released polling suggesting that people think Reform UK would win an election with an 18-point lead if Starmer were leader, but that with Burnham as leader they think Labour would be on course for a 2-point win.
UPDATE: The JL Partners figures are not from a voting intention poll (how people would vote); they are from a poll of what people would expect the result to be, which is different. I have changed the language in the second paragraph to make that clear.
Updated
Jonathan Freedland has an excellent account of where it all went wrong for Keir Starmer. Here is an extract.
Perhaps there was a time when voters would have given a newly elected PM a few years to turn things around, but those days are long gone. The electorate is impatient now, demanding almost instant results. That process has been intensified and accelerated by social media, which does not merely put the worst possible gloss on the actions and motives of those in its sights, but distorts public figures out of all recognition. Labour canvassers for the May elections were shocked to find voters who were not just disappointed in Starmer but harboured a visceral loathing for him – who saw him in almost demonic terms. They were reacting to an invention untethered to reality, but one pushed and promoted by Elon Musk and his X platform especially.
Given all that he faced, historians might be impressed with what Starmer achieved. In his resignation speech, he highlighted his transformation of the Labour party, the fall in NHS waiting lists and the lifting of half a million children out of poverty, along with a raft of workers’ and renters’ rights that, say Starmer’s advocates, sits at the centre of a record of progressive accomplishment that bears comparison to the first two years of the 1945 government. They also credit Starmer with boosting Britain’s standing on the world stage, the canny statecraft that kept Donald Trump’s US engaged on Ukraine and which kept the UK out of Trump’s doomed war with Iran – a decision that takes its place alongside that of Starmer’s hero, Harold Wilson, to abstain from the war in Vietnam. At all this, say Starmer’s friends, he was brilliantly adept. But, sighs one, “This is not an age of substance, it’s an age of sheen – and he was just not very good at that.”
And here is the full article.
A reader asks:
Is there any realistic possibility that Keir Starmer might be offered a ministerial post in an Andy Burnham government? There was some speculation a while back that Burnham might ask him to be Foreign Secretary, for example. His legal background might also make him a good Attorney General, or perhaps even Justice Secretary.
Short answer: No.
There is precedent for a former PM coming back to serve as foreign secretary. Alec Douglas-Home did that, as did David Cameron.
But I can’t think of any precedent, at least in modern history, for someone stepping down as PM one week and then turning up to cabinet the following week in a more junior role. There is far too much bitterness between Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham to imagine that happening; even if there wasn’t, you might imagine that an ex-PM would want time to adjust to their reduced status before rejoining the cabinet.
Cameron resigned in 2016 and did not become foreign secretary until 2023. Douglas-Home lost an election in 1964 and did not become foreign secretary until 1970. He did become shadow foreign secretary in 1965, when Ted Heath replaced him as leader. But there was no particular animus between them; Douglas-Home had not been forced out. And, in those days, a shadow cabinet job was more part-time than it is now.
Badenoch claims Starmer having to resign because he 'failed on national security'
In the Commons Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, has been responding to David Lammy’s statement about last week’s G7 summit. She criticised Andy Burnham for not being present himself, claiming he was “more interested in his leadership bid than Britain’s national security”.
She went on:
If [Burnham] becomes prime minister, he will be briefed by the heads of our military about Britain’s reducing ability to defend herself, let alone Ukraine.
In order to fund defence, we need more money, not more speeches at summits. He will find that Britain is not able to borrow any more money. He will find that it has all been spent on welfare. He will realise that this government is providing export finance to rebuild Ukraine’s energy system while crippling our own, reducing sanctions on Russian oil while sanctioning oil from Aberdeen.
She accused Labour MPs of “living in La-La Land” on defence. And she went on:
The prime minister is resigning because he failed on national security. He appointed a known security risk as our ambassador to Washington. He is destroying our energy security, which is national security, and he is refusing to fund the defence investment plan needed to keep our country safe.
Responding to Badenoch, David Lammy, the deputy PM, sarcastically thanked the Tory leader for her “generosity and constructive suggestions” and said Starmer had left the UK “stronger and fairer” than it was before.
A reader asks:
@Andrew: Can Lucy Powell remain deputy leader if Burnham becomes leader?
I presume not, which probably means she will be given a cabinet role in exchange, right?
She can. In fact, she must. Lucy Powell is the only Labour MP with a senior post who is elected to her role, and that means she cannot be sacked. She is also a fellow north-west MP who is a friend of Andy Burnham’s, and so her prospects are looking good. One theory is that she could be appointed deputy PM – or co-deputy PM, if Burnham decides to keep David Lammy in post.
Momentum, the leftwing Labour group set up to promote Jeremy Corbyn’s agenda when he was leader, has welcomed Keir Starmer’s resignation. Its co-chair Alex Charilaou said:
We welcome Keir Starmer’s resignation as prime minister. His government has failed to deliver real change, attacked party democracy, failed to shift power in the economy to working people and refused to unequivocally condemn the genocide in Gaza.
Mark Carney says 'world is safer and allies more united' because of work done by Starmer
Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, has offered this tribute to Keir Starmer.
It has been a privilege to work alongside Sir Keir Starmer as he has led international efforts to support Ukraine through the Coalition of the Willing, strengthen Nato, improve Arctic cooperation, and deepen the historic partnership between Canada and the United Kingdom.
Throughout, and in the face of exceptional challenges, Keir has acted with principle, determination, and collaboration. The world is safer and allies are more united because of his efforts.
Keir, thank you for your lifetime of public service. I am grateful for your friendship, and I wish you all the best as you concentrate on your “most important job.”
Anas Sarwar says Labour in 'fight of our lives' to beat Reform UK, as he declines to openly back Burnham for leader
Severin Carrell is the Guardian’s Scotland editor.
Anas Sarwar has refused to openly endorse Andy Burnham as the next leader of the UK Labour party and said the party’s greatest challenge is to comprehensively defeat Nigel Farage and Reform.
The Scottish Labour leader rebuffed questions about whether he is angry that Keir Starmer had taken until now to resign as prime minister, given his calls for Starmer to quit in February after the Scottish party’s polling support plummeted.
Many senior party figures in Scotland, including Sarwar, blame Starmer for consigning Scottish Labour to its worst result since devolution, winning only 17 of Holyrood’s 129 seats and tying for second with Reform UK.
Speaking to reporters in Glasgow, Sarwar said Labour was “in the fight of our lives” to defeat the “poison of Reform”; that was the “biggest challenge” facing the next prime minister, he said.
Do I wish we had a different outcome at the Scottish elections? Of course, I do, but we live with the reality of that election result, and we’ve got to hold the Scottish government to account over the course of the next five years.
He insisted Starmer should now be recognised as “a man of integrity” who had changed the Labour party, defeated the Tories in a landslide election, ended austerity and secured shipbuilding on the Clyde for a generation.
After confirming he would like Glasgow to replicate Manchester’s successes with regeneration under Burnham, he refused to endorse Burnham’s candidacy and said he would challenge anyone who stood to be UK leader to deliver “meaningful outcomes” for Scotland and the UK.
We all feel it. There is a lack of hope in this country, and there is a disengagement and a disenfranchisement across the country, and I think that is actually quite a dangerous and difficult point I think for our democracy and also for our country.
And I think fundamentally what we need to see over the next period is a politics that gives hope back to people, brings heart back into our politics, and ultimately takes on that big fight.
I can’t emphasize this enough, I honestly believe that we are in the fight of our lives, and I think this is bigger than just the existential reason for the Labour party. I think this is going to be a period where we are fighting for the heart and soul of our country, and Labour has to make sure it’s making that fight with heart and with soul.
Jessica Elgot is the Guardian’s deputy political editor.
The chancellor Rachel Reeves was in Westminster Hall to greet Andy Burnham - though she was not present outside No 10 for Keir Starmer’s resignation as prime minister this morning.
Greeting Burnham after he was sworn in as an MP were a slew of cabinet ministers - including the chief whip Jonathan Reynolds and the energy secretary Ed Miliband - who came in flanked by two Treasury ministers, Torsten Bell and Dan Tomlinson.
Around 200 MPs were in the hall to greet Burnham, now officially the MP for Makerfield. He arrived with Lucy Powell, the deputy Labour leader and the MP Jo Platt - who holds Burnham’s old constituency of Leigh.
But there were Starmer loyalists there too - including the communities secretary Steve Reed - as well Wes Streeting who has newly endorsed Burnham for leader.
Starmer played 'significant role' resetting Irish-British relationship, says Irish PM Micheál Martin
Micheál Martin, the taoiseach (Irish PM), has paid this tribute to Keir Starmer.
I want to acknowledge the significant role Keir played in resetting the Irish-British relationship as well as relations between the UK and the European Union during his time as prime minister.
Since Keir took office two years ago, he has worked with us to set a new direction and depth in the relationship between Ireland and the UK, for the benefit of all our citizens, north-south and east-west.
Our two governments also took an important step forward in dealing with the legacy of the past in Northern Ireland publishing a joint framework on addressing the legacy of the Troubles.
Labour MPs turn out en masse for photocall with Burnham in Westminster Hall
Labour MPs turned up en masse in Westminster Hall to pose for photographs with Andy Burnham. Nick Eardley from the BBC reckons there were about 200 Labour MPs there – that is about half the PLP – including ministers and the chief whip.
Given that anyone wanting to stand against Burnham would need the support of 81 MPs, we have probably got to the point where we can say for certain that Burnham is going to be elected unopposed.
Updated
Here is video of Andy Burnham being sworn in.
UK-EU summit scheduled for 22 July postponed to allow new PM more time to prepare
Jennifer Rankin is the Guardian’s Brusssels correspondent.
European leaders have paid tribute to Keir Starmer after he announced his resignation as prime minister, triggering the postponement of an upcoming EU-UK summit.
European Council president António Costa said “for sure we need to postpone it, but we are reassessing the opportunity to hold this new summit.”
He added: “My wish is that his successor will give continuity on this path to reset our relationship with the UK.”
Soon after Starmer’s resignation speech at Number 10, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted: “It can take many leaders years to grow into the statesman you became in just two years. European and Ukrainian security is stronger because of you. Thank you, dear Keir.”
The annual EU-UK summit was announced for 22 July only last week, after weeks of uncertainty and delay. With the most likely next UK prime minister, Andy Burnham, unlikely to face a contest, Starmer’s last outing on the world stage could be the Nato summit in Ankara on 7-8 July.
Updated
And while we are talking about miracles and Andy Burnham taking the oath, Tom Peck from the Times has spotted another.
BREAKING: Andy Burnham owns a tie.
Desmond Swayne shouted “Rome is saved” as Andy Burnham was sworn in.
Someone else then shouted “he’s not the messiah”.
After a brief pause, Burnham replied jokingly suggesting he was a “naughty boy” instead. Someone else repeated the line.
And then another MP joked about Burnham “turning water into wine”.
UPDATE: Another reporter who saw this thought Burnham was referring to the MP who heckled him as the “naughty boy”, not himself.
Updated
Andy Burnham sworn in as MP for Makerfield
Lindsay Hoyle says, in a particularly loud voice, ‘we now come to Andy Burnham, member for Makerfield.”
There is a heckle from Desmond Swayne.
And Burnham takes the oath.
Updated
Douglas Lumsden, the new Tory MP for Aberdeen South, goes next. He reads out the normal version of the oath.
The Commons is sitting. And new MPs are taking their seats.
The first MP to do so is Lara Bird, the new SNP MP for Abroath and Broughty Ferry. She said she was only taking the oath so she could serve as an MP. Her loyalty was to the people of Scotland, she said.
UPDATE: Bird said:
I take this oath only so that I can serve the people of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. My first allegiance is, and always will be, the sovereign people of Scotland.
Updated
How Burnham dodged most of the press pack as he arrived at Euston
Matthew Weaver is a Guardian reporter.
Dozens of photographers, broadcasters and reporters jostled for position at the end of platform 13 waiting for the delayed 10.55am from Manchester.
“Who’s coming?” asked Naresh, a baffled tourist from New Delhi. When it was explained that Andy Burnham, the man set to be the UK next prime minister, was about to arrive in London Naresh was open mouthed. He said: “I’m amazed, in India the prime minister would be surrounded by security and he would never travel by train. It’s good to see because he’s a public servant.”
Burnham’s train finally got in at 1.31pm, 22 minutes late. Station staff tried to persuade the press pack to make room for hundreds of other passengers getting off the train. Some passengers jokingly posed for pictures as if it was them who were being greeted off the train by the world’s media. Burnham ally and Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell was one of the first off the train. She said nothing to a barrage of questions.
But there was no sign of Burham. The waiting press pack began to get restless as it became clear that the prime minister in waiting would not walking off the train with his fellow passengers. Instead he was ushered to an underpass below the station to a waiting cab.
The press pack then stampeded out of the station to the gated entrance of the underpass. Broadcasters from all over the world were doing pieces to camera as Burnham’s taxi edged out of the station. A helicopter hovered above.
Burnham was filmed at Manchester’s Piccadilly station getting on the train in a black T-shirt and jeans. Somewhere on the journey he made change of clothes. Through the windows of his cab he was seen wearing a jacket and white shirt on his way to the House of Commons to be sworn in as the new MP for Makerfield.
Here is John Crace’s sketch of Keir Starmer’s resignation speech this morning.
Andy Burnham posted a picture earlier of the leaving present he was given by staff at the Greater Manchester combined authority when he visited the office this morning before setting off for London.
The quote, ‘This is Manchester, we do things differently here’, is attributed to the Haçienda founder and record boss Tony Wilson, but doesn’t seem to have been said by him in real life. Instead, the actor Steve Coogan, playing Wilson in a biopic, delivered the line in a script written by Frank Cottrell-Boyce.
Zelenskyy thanks Starmer for his support, and says he will always be 'welcome guest in Ukraine'
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, has paid tribute to Keir Starmer. In a message on social media, he said:
Keir, thank you for all our cooperation, your support, and the joint decisions that have helped make our Europe and our protection of life stronger.
The United Kingdom has been, is, and will remain among the world’s leaders. Here in Ukraine, we deeply value Britain, and every meeting and every conversation we have had has always been filled with real substance.
Thank you for always being in touch, always engaged, and always striving to do what is needed and what will truly help.
I wish the United Kingdom and all British people every success as well as realisation of your national goals. We have confidence in Britain.
Keir, you are always a welcome guest in Ukraine.
Burnham brushes aside question about his call for general election when Boris Johnson replaced as PM in 2022
Andy Burnham has been speaking to reporters on the platform at Euston.
He said he had made his statement earlier praising the PM’s dedication and service, and confirming that he would be a candidate.
When it was put to him that he called for an immediate general election when Rishi Sunak took over as PM, Burnham said: “I think you’re talking several hurdles ahead there.”
He said it had been sad to leave Greater Manchester. The people had been brilliant to him, he said, and he loved every minute of it. “I hope I leave Manchester in a better place.”
The reporter was referring to this tweet from Burnham posted during the 2022 Tory leadership contest.
We need to start demanding a General Election at the end of this Tory leadership election.
They were all elected on a manifesto promise to level up the North and are all abandoning it.
At the time, when someone responded to Burnham saying Labour did not call an election when Tony Blair was replaced by Gordon Brown, Burnham replied:
No, but then we didn’t have a major change of political direction nor ditch the core mission on which we were elected - as the Tories are poised to do with levelling up.
Ben Riley-Smith from the Telegraph says the lack of cabinet support for Keir Starmer was evident from how few ministers were in No 10 to hear his resignation speech this morning. (See 12pm.)
If you want to understand why Starmer resigned glancing left during his speech at the group of supporters gathered explains the reason.
There were less than half a dozen cabinet ministers visible and present for their boss’s resignation - David Lammy, David Jones, Jenny Chapman, Richard Hermer, (possibly Steve Reed too, his aides were there.)
That is just a fraction of the 27 ministers who sit round his Cabinet table.
Starmer had lost support from too many around his cabinet (and the wider parliamentary party) to carry on.
Anna Turley, the Labour chair, thinks Riley-Smith is being unfair. She posted this in response.
Hi there Ben you don’t seem to recognise that MPs live in constituencies and travel in on Monday mornings. I had to watch this speech on a train with bad wifi.
Andy Burnham’s train has arrived at Euston, according to the BBC. The new MP for Makerfield is letting all the other passengers off the train first before he alights to meet all the journalists waiting for him.
This is from Gordon Brown, the last Labour PM, on Keir Starmer.
Keir Starmer’s place in history is assured. We owe Keir a debt of gratitude for taking Labour from its worst electoral defeat in 2019, bringing Labour back into government with a huge majority in 2024 and then guiding Britain through difficult times nationally and globally.
Andy Burnham’s train from Manchester to London is running late, but due to arrive shortly. It is being followed by a Sky News helicopter.
Starmer wrong to claim credit in resignation speech for ending austerity, says NEU teachers' union leader
Sally Weale is the Guardian’s education correspondent.
The leader of the country’s biggest teaching union has criticised Keir Starmer for suggesting that his government has ended austerity.
Commenting on Starmer’s resignation speech (see 9.59am), Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Education Union, said:
Keir Starmer was wrong to claim credit today for ending austerity.
Part of the reason why his government is so deeply unpopular is that they have failed to fix the funding crisis in schools, which risks condemning another generation of children to bear the brunt of austerity-level school budgets.
NEU polling this weekend showed only 5% of members think the Labour government has performed well on education over the last two years.
Starmer’s resignation has also triggered fears about possible delays to the government’s planned education reforms for children with special educational needs and disabilities (Send), which has been a priority for Starmer’s administration, though the proposals remain controversial.
Jane Harris, chief executive of Speech and Language UK, said:
Today’s political uncertainty must not be allowed to delay the urgent reform children with Send have been promised.
Too many children with speech and language challenges are already waiting too long for support, being misunderstood in classrooms or missing out on the help they need to learn, make friends and thrive.
The agenda for the day posted earlier (see 7.11am) turned out to be a bit duff. Downing Street cancelled the regular lobby briefing, and we have now been told that Keir Starmer will not, as expected, be making a Commons statement about the G7. Instead it will be made by David Lammy, the deputy PM, (who wasn’t at the summit).
After that there will be two more ministerial statements: Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, on the Bedford train crash, and James Murray, the health secretary, on the Pathways clinical trial, which is investigating the efficacy of puberty-suppressing drugs with trans children.
And here is a video of Londoners reacting to the news that Keir Starmer is resigning.
Here is Peter Walker’s assessment of Keir Starmer’s career.
And here is an assessment by Alexandra Topping of five of Starmer’s successses, and five of his failures.
Updated
Will Starmer stay on as MP for Holborn and St Pancras?
A reader asks:
Question for Andrew (or anyone who knows): Will Starmer be staying on in the HoC as the MP for Holborn & St Pancras, or is he stepping back from that position too? If the latter, how soon would there be a by-election?
Keir Starmer has given no indication that he intends to stand down as an MP.
When Tony Blair resigned after he stood down as PM, he quit parliament immediately. David Cameron said that he would stay on when he resigned, but he quickly changed his mind, particularly when it became clear Theresa May was going to pursue policies he could not support (she wanted to lift the ban on new grammar schools). Boris Johnson resigned as an MP too, but that was a few months after he left No 10, and because the privileges committee was about to publish a report saying he lied to MPs over Partygate.
Starmer would probably find it as awkward sitting on the back benches listening to Andy Burnham take PMQs as Blair would have done listening to Gordon Brown. Starmer is not going to be sanctioned by the privileges committee, but like Cameron he may also not want be in a position where he is expected to vote for policies championed by his successor that he does not support. For Starmer, the idea of moving on may appeal.
But there is a big difference; Blair and Cameron could both leave parliament safe in the knowledge that their party would hold the seat in the forthcoming byelection. Johnson couldn’t, but he probably didn’t care.
At the last election Starmer had a majority of 11,572. At the 2019 election his majority was more than 27,000. An independent candidate campaigning largely on Gaza came second in the seat in 2024 and Electoral Calculus has the Green party currently on course to win Holborn and St Pancras under its modelling. For Starmer to trigger a byelection in those circumstances would be deeply hostile act towards his successor.
Having spoken about the need for an “orderly handover of power” in his speech today (see 9.43am), it is hard to see why he would be minded to sabotage Burnham in this way.
That does not mean, if Starmer remains an MP, he will have to be in the Commons every night. Party whips tend to be quite accommodating towards former prime ministers and, if he finds other duties that take him away from parliament, he is not likely to get into trouble for missing votes.
The PM normally does a session with the liaison committee before the start of the summer recess. The veteran broadcaster Michael Crick has a good proposal.
If it is a “coronation” the for scrutiny purposes, Andy Burnham should volunteer to be grilled very soon and at length by the Commons Liaison Committee which comprises all the select committee chairs.
From the Times’ Tom Peck
Little bit of history made as Harry Kane, John Stones and Jordan Henderson look set to become the first England internationals to go through a change of prime minister during a major international tournament for a record breaking third time.
Cabinet ministers and others in the Labour party have been paying tribute to Keir Starmer. Here are some of their comments.
David Lammy, the deputy PM, said:
With Keir’s leadership, this Labour government brought stability back to our economy, cut NHS waiting lists, improved renters’ rights, began to fix the crisis we inherited in our courts and prisons, reduced small boat crossings, protected young people online, lifted half a million children out of poverty and restored Britain’s standing in the world. He put Britain back at the heart of Europe, stood firmly with Ukraine and rebuilt relationships with our allies.
Change promised, change fought for and change delivered. That is Keir Starmer’s legacy, and I am incredibly proud to have played my part in it.
Rachel Reeeves, the chancellor, said:
From taking our party from the worst defeat in modern history, Keir Starmer turned it around and delivered a landslide majority just four years later.
That was thanks to the public trusting us on the economy and on security, and thanks to our commitment to investing in every part of our country, in our public services and rebalancing the economy so it works for working people.
Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, said:
Keir Starmer led our party from the brink, back to power. He won a landslide victory, which few in our party’s history have done before.That achievement will never be forgotten. In office, he put us on the path to the change we promised at the last election. A devoted and dedicated public servant, we owe him our deepest thanks.
Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, said:
Keir Starmer led the Labour Party from one of our worst defeats in history in 2019 to one of our most decisive election victories five years later. All the things this Labour Government has done and will do in the future to build a fairer, stronger country are only possible because of what Keir has done over the last six years
Angela Rayner, the former deputy PM, said:
I know just how hard it is to both hold and leave office, not just on those who held it but all those close to them too, as Keir rightly acknowledged today. He spoke with dignity and duty, and my thoughts are with him and his family.
I was proud to serve as Deputy as he led our party into government. History will remember not just the challenges he faced but the achievements he oversaw. I pay tribute to his record of dedicated public service.
Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, said:
Keir Starmer can be immensely proud of his achievements in bringing Labour back to power and leading two years in Government to make Britain a fairer, stronger country.
Today’s statement showed the great dignity and integrity that is the mark of the man.
John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, paid tribute to Keir Starmer. In a statement, he said:
On a personal level, I wish the prime minister and his family well.
Leadership is tough, and can make extraordinary demands both on the leader and their families. Sir Keir Starmer has made the right decision. It was past time for him to face reality and the fact he now has allows some hope that things can change.
But Swinney also said the government needed not just “a change of personnel”, but “a fundamental change of direction”.
Corbyn's Your Party says Starmer 'failed to stand up for working people, criminalised protest and aided Israel's crimes in Gaza'
Your Party, the leftwing party set up by Jeremy Corbyn and others after Corbyn was expelled from Labour, has issued this statement about Keir Starmer.
Keir Starmer’s resignation is the inevitable result of a leadership that abandoned the people Labour was founded to represent.
He failed to stand up for working people, criminalised the right to protest, and aided Israel’s crimes in Gaza.
But this is about more than one leader. Whether Labour turns to Andy Burnham or anyone else, Westminster politics remains broken.
Replacing one leader with another will not fix a political establishment that is increasingly disconnected from the lives of ordinary people. Britain needs a new political movement to put power in the hands of people and offer a genuine alternative to a system that has failed the working class for far too long.
UPDATE: Jeremy Corbyn has issued his own statement. He said:
Keir Starmer could have ended child poverty, homelessness and the grotesque levels of inequality in this country.
Instead, he abandoned those in need, destroyed our civil liberties and facilitated genocide in Gaza.
That is how this Prime Minister will be remembered - and that is the legacy of moral and political bankruptcy he leaves behind.
The crises in our society are not going away. Neither are we - and we will keep fighting for a more equal, peaceful and dignified society for all.
Updated
Al Carns, who only became a Labour MP in 2024 and who resigned as armed forces minister recently over his opposition to the defence investment plan, posted this on social media this morning.
Keir has done the right thing. It took courage to make that decision and I respect him for it.
The Labour party now has an important job to do. The country is watching to see if we can get our act together and focus on the work we were elected to do. That’s where my focus is now.
In recent weeks Carns has been, not very subtly, promoting his credentials as a potential Labour leader – even though this was not seen as a serious bid and there seemed to be no chance of his getting the 81 backers he would need to be a candidate. The line in his statement saying “that’s where my focus is now” implies those ambitions have now been shelved.
Von der Leyen thanks Starmer, saying 'European and Ukrainian security stronger because of you'
Jakub Krupa writes the Guardian’s Europe live blog.
Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, has thanked Keir Starmer for his work with the EU on strengthening the European and Ukrainian security. In a post responding to his resignation announcement, she said:
It can take many leaders years to grow into the statesman you became in just two years.
European and Ukrainian security is stronger because of you.
Thank you, dear Keir.
Former Czech prime minister Petr Fiala also paid tribute to Starmer for his “clear and principled support for Ukraine”, helping to unlock “the new level of cooperation between the UK and the EU”. He said:
Today, rational and decent politicians face an increasingly difficult environment. Starmer moved the Labour Party towards the political centre and strengthened the United Kingdom’s position abroad. In the end, it was not enough.
Streeting says Burnham committed to 'inclusive party that draws on best of our political traditions'
Here is the key extract from Wes Streeting’s statement this morning. (See 11.21am.)
I left the government because we were losing the fight to nationalists in every corner of the country. I have spent the weeks since speaking to our former councillors, activists and voters in place we lost - to listen and learn from them.
I’ve also been setting out ideas to change our country: a plan for Britain to grow again and grow together, with a progressive capitalism focused on wealth creation as much as wealth distribution; to lead the world in the fourth industrial revolution and protect people from its risks; to modernise our public services; to give Britain energy security; to build stronger alliances with democracies around the world and a new special relationship with Europe; and to change the culture of our party so that it is more inclusive and open to ideas.
Having spoken at length with Andy in recent days, I’m convinced that there is a place for those ideas under his leadership; that he is committed to building an inclusive party that draws on the best of our political traditions; and that he can win the fight of our lives against the forces of nationalism.
We could spend the summer exaggerating small differences, or we can roll up our sleeves and help him to deliver the change our Party and our country needs. That is the choice that I am making and I hope that everyone else will back Andy, too.
We were elected change our country, to show that politics can be a force for good, and to spread opportunity for everyone. With Andy, we still can.
Andy Burnham has been getting on his train for the journey to London. He is getting a lot of support from wellwishers.
Streeting says he won't challenge for leadership, suggesting Burnham on course to become PM without contest
Wes Streeting has posted this on social media. He confirms that he won’t stand as a candidate for the Labour leadership. He says that he a contest where candidates spent the summer “exaggerating small differences” would not be good for the party or the country, and he says that, having spoken to Burnham, he is confident that that there is “a place” for the policies he has been advocating under a Burnham premiership.
This means it is now very, very likely that Burnham will be PM by mid July. It is conceivable that another candidate may come forward. But, apart from Streeting, no one else has publicly signalled an intention to stand, and with Burnham now a shoo-in, it is hard to imagine any other MP getting the support they would need to be a candidate.
Updated
Burnham confirms he will be candidate to replace Starmer, saying transition should be 'positive process of renewal'
Andy Burnham has confirmed that he will stand as a candidate to replace Keir Starmer. He says he will give Britain “stability, seriousness and a continued focus on the issues that matter most”. And he says he wants the transition to be “a positive process of renewal”.
Keir has given huge service to our country and I want to thank him for his leadership and dedication during such a challenging period.
His decision marks the beginning of a transition and it is important that this process is conducted in an orderly and responsible way. I will put myself forward as part of this process.
The country expects stability, seriousness and a continued focus on the issues that matter most and that is what it will get.
As we move forward, our priority must be to work together to get the country back to where we all want it to be. People want to see progress on economic growth, cost of living, public services, housing and opportunities for the next generation. Political change should never distract from the responsibility to improve people’s lives.
The Labour movement has always been at its strongest when it looks forward with confidence and purpose. This is what we will do from here and we will make sure this transition is a positive process of renewal for our party and our country.
Burnham does not make any reference to a leadership election happening, and his reference to the “transition” implies he does not expect a contest to happen.
There was one notable absence in Downing Street today, Jessica Elgot reports.
Interesting that Rachel Reeves was not outside Number 10 today
Reeves and Keir Starmer used to be very close, and until now their political fates have been entwined. One of the decisions that did most to make Starmer unpopular with voters was Reeves cutting the winter fuel payment early after she took office.
But Reeves is now reportedly hoping that Andy Burnham can be persuaded to keep her on as chancellor.
'Turmoil in Westminster' making it harder for Welsh government to engage with UK PM, says Rhun ap Iorwerth
Steven Morris is a Guardian correspondent covering Wales.
The Welsh first minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth, said the turmoil around the UK prime minister was making it difficult for him to work with Westminster.
He said:
I am disappointed that the Welsh government’s ability to engage with the UK prime minister on issues which matter to the people of Wales is being hampered by the turmoil in Westminster.
Ap Iorwerth, whose Plaid Cymru party took advantage of Labour’s troubles to secure a famous win at the Senedd – Welsh parliament – elections in May, added:
I wish Sir Keir Starmer well as he prepares to leave office. I would like to see his successor recognising that Wales needs a new relationship with Westminster, with a focus on greater powers, fair funding, and respect for the democratic mandate delivered by the people of Wales.
Ken Skates, the Welsh Labour interim leader, said:
Keir brought our party back from oblivion and delivered one of the greatest victories the Labour Party has seen. Under his leadership we’ve seen an increase to the minimum wage, a boost to the state pension and stronger employment rights. We also received a record devolution settlement and generational plans for £14bn for rail in Wales. He has led the country through exceptionally tough times with dignity and authenticity.
This is what Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, is saying about Keir Starmer’s resignation.
The British people are sick of being let down by an endless merry-go-round of prime ministers while nothing really changes for them.
This time must be different. It can’t just be about changing who’s in Number 10, it has to be about changing our broken politics so we can fix our country.
That means tackling the cost of living with a bold new deal with Europe, fixing social care at long last to end the NHS crisis; and giving power back to people by voting reform and giving communities more control.
Whoever becomes prime minister needs to drop the caution and complacency and show the ambition our country deserves.
Some of this sounds like an Andy Burnham endorsement. Burnham also thinks politics is not working for people in the UK, he is also promising change, he is strongly committed to voting reform and devolution and he is arguably the last Labour politician to produce a serious plan for social care reform (when he was health secretary before the 2010 election).
Burnham is also on record as saying he would like to the UK to rejoin the EU – although in recent weeks he has played down the prospect of implementing a radical EU reset.
Attorney general Lord Hermer says he does not think Starmer angry about his situation
Lord Hermer, the attorney general and one of Keir Starmer’s closest friends in politics, told Sky News that he did not think Starmer was angry about being forced to resign.
There have been reports saying that, behind the scenes, he is more bitter about events than his public comments suggest. (See 9.27am.) But, when asked if Starmer was angry about having to resign, Hermer said:
I would be, but I don’t think he is. I think he is someone who is genuinely focused on the country and doing the right thing, and you saw that on the podium today …
He is someone who has always, always put country first, and I think he made the decision that fighting on would not serve the party, would not serve, more importantly, the country.
Starmer’s speech was notable for his statement saying that he accepted that he had to go “with good grace”. (See 9.37am.) This marked a contrast from Boris Johnson, who could not really conceal his outrage at Tory MPs forcing him out “when we have such a vast mandate and when we’re actually only a handful of points behind in the polls” in his equivalent speech four years ago.
The only hint that Starmer does feel hard done by was the long passage commenting on his achievements as PM. (See 9.59am.)
Starmer’s speech was more dignified that Johnson’s, but Johnson’s contained a quote for the history books: “As we’ve seen at Westminster, the herd instinct is powerful and when the herd moves, it moves.” Starmer would almost certainly agree.
Australian PM Anthony Albanese pays tribute to Starmer saying he can be 'proud' of his contribution to UK
Anthony Albanese, the Australian PM, has issued this statement about Keir Starmer’s resignation. He said:
I consider Keir Starmer a friend and I’m thinking of him on what must be a very tough day.
Serving in public life is a tremendous privilege but politics can also be a harsh business.
When the time comes for Keir to leave Downing Street, he can be proud of the contribution he has made to the country he loves and to the Labour party that he led back to government in 2024.
I’m grateful for the opportunities we had to work together to strengthen our Aukus defence and security partnership, support the brave people of Ukraine and keep children safe from the damage that social media can do.
I wish Keir, Victoria and their children well with everything the future holds.
Zack Polanski says Burnham's recent policy talk 'not encouraging', and that as PM he 'must be bold'
Peter Walker is a senior Guardian political correspondent.
Zack Polanski, the leader of the Greens in England and Wales, has said that Starmer’s departure should be the moment for “a bold change of direction” for the nation.
He said:
We are still waiting to see which version of Andy Burnham might going to show up in Downing Street. While he has talked about a change of course, the early indications are not encouraging and suggest more of the same with better communication skills.
The time for half measures and sticking plasters is long gone - if he becomes the next PM, Burnham must be bold or he will be bust.
Jessica Elgot points out that, if Andy Burnham does become PM around 17 July (see 10.04am), Keir Starmer will attend the Nato summit – but Burnham would be in post for the UK-EU summit.
Two very big dates around this period:
- 7th July is Nato summit which Starmer looks likely to attend - and by which we need the Defence Investment Plan
- 22 July is the EU reset summit in Brussels. Will this be PM Andy Burnham?
Farage calls for general election
Ben Quinn is a Guardian political correspondent.
The Conservatives may not be arguing that having a new PM requires an election (see 7.52am) but Nigel Farage has called for an election. He claims that it is “ridiculous to pretend that Andy Burnham has any kind of meaningful mandate to lead the country.”
The Reform UK leader, who is himself licking his wounds after his party was beaten in last week’s Makerfield by-election, referred to that result in an “essay to Britain” in which he said that Burnham now presumed to be prime minister “based on less than 25,000 votes”.
“I’m not frightened of Andy Burnham or any of the other Labour Party stooges,” wrote Farage who claimed that the “uniparty” of Labour and Conservatives were frightened of Reform. He added:
That’s why they band together at every byelection to attempt to block us from victory, why they tried to cancel the local elections and why they’ll try their very hardest to hold off on a general election for as long as possible.
Andy Burnham has good reason to be afraid of us. Reform is the only party that listens to the desires of working people and offers them solutions, rather than flattery and patronisation.
Updated
How Burnham could become PM around 17 July
Jessica Elgot is the Guardian’s deputy political editor.
If there are no challengers then you can expect Andy Burnham to be prime minister on or around 17 July.
Keir Starmer said that Labour’s governing body - the national executive committee - will open nominations on 9 July and that the process will be concluded by the summer recess which is expected on 16 July.
Two members of NEC confirm to the Guardian that Burnham can be prime minister by the following day - 17 July - though it could be the following Monday when parliament is in recess.
If there is a contest, all bets are off - but Starmer said he expects that to conclude by September.
Here is video of Keir Starmer announcing his resignation.
What Starmer said about his achievements as PM
In his speech, just before he got to the passage where he announced his resignation, Keir Starmer talked about his achievements in government. Here is that passage.
And look at what we’ve achieved in just two years.
An economy that is stronger, going faster than our peers, wages rising faster than inflation in every single month since we came to power.
Investment secured, infrastructure being built, an end to austerity with the fastest fall in NHS waiting lists for 17 years, the biggest improvement in rights for workers and renters in a generation.
The biggest uplift in defence spending since the cold war.
Small boat crossings falling, asylum hotels closing, protecting young people from social media and half a million children being lifted out of poverty because of the choices that I made.
Our reputation in the world restored, with Britain once again standing up for decency, respect and the rule of law, securing trade deals, standing with Ukraine, standing up for our values and rebuilding our relationship with our allies in Europe.
Change promised by a Labour government. Change fought for by a Labour government. Change delivered by a Labour government.
In the end it was rapid and efficient, but nonetheless emotional.
The particular part of Downing Street where I was standing meant I was watching Keir Starmer directly in from of me but I could also see his cabinet and advisers - and his wife, Victoria - behind him. Many, particularly Victoria, were very obviously emotional as the soon-to-depart PM spoke.
The earlier part of the speech, where Starmer set out his achievements in office, was almost drowned out by Ode to Joy blasting from the vast speaker owned by the professional protester Steve Bray just outside the speech.
But suddenly - perhaps a kindly passer-by pulled out a lead - it went quiet. Starmer set out his plans to leave and how, and became emotional himself as he thanked his colleagues, then also Victoria and his two teenage children.
Anyone who has spoken to Starmer in private knows how much he talks about his family, and with such clear pride. They will be a comfort in the most difficult moment of his political career.
Starmer ends speech saying he will leave 'biggest job in country' to spend more time on 'most important job', as dad and husband
The end of Keir Starmer’s speech was particularly moving, and he sounded close to tears at the end.
I will also give my successor my full and unequivocal support, knowing that they will inherit a Britain that is far stronger and fairer than the one I inherited two years ago, better prepared for the challenges ahead and better able to ensure the Labour party secures a second term in office.
I want to thank all of those friends and colleagues who have been at my side for these past six years or so for their incredible commitment, service and support.
I want to thank the brilliant No 10 staff and our country’s extraordinary civil service, who dedicate their lives to public service.
And when I leave the biggest job in the country, I shall spend more time on the most important job, being the best husband I can to my fantastic wife Vic, who has been a rock by my side through good times and bad, and being the best dad I can to my beautiful children who are my pride and my joy.
Thank you very much.
Starmer says new PM to take over mid July if Burnham unopposed, or by end of August if there's election
Starmer sets out the timetable for his departure.
I will ask the national executive committee of the Labour party to set out a timetable, with nominations opening on the 9th of July and completed by the summer recess.
In the case of a contest, this will ensure a new leader is in place before parliament returns in September.
I will remain in post as prime minister until the contest is complete, and I will do everything I can to ensure an orderly handover of power.
The Commons summer recess is due to start on 16 July and so, if Andy Burnham is unopposed (as seems increasingly likely – despite Wes Streeting previously saying he would definitely stand as a candidate), he will become PM in the middle of next month.
If there is a contest, the new PM will be in post by the end of August. The Commons returns after the summer recess on 1 September.
Starmer says he accepts 'with good grace' that he is not best person to lead Labour into next election
Starmer says he accepts the decision he has to go with good grace.
The question being asked now is not who was best placed to change the Labour party, to take us into power and to begin the vital work of improving lives for millions of people. Those questions have been answered.
The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election.
I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace.
Every decision I’ve taken has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour party.
I have spoken to His Majesty the King this morning to inform him of my decision.
Updated
Starmer confirms he is resigning
Starmer confirms he is resigning. He has spoken to the king, he says.
Updated
Starmer says he proved his critics wrong
Starmer says he proved his critics wrong.
We proved those people wrong because we changed our party, ripping out the poison of antisemitism, restoring trust on the economy, defence and national security, and becoming a party that once again stood proudly with, not against, our national flag.
The hard work of change was with a singular purpose, not power for power’s sake, but to change Britain for the better, to build a fairer country with dignity and respect, where everyone is seen, everyone is valued, wealth and opportunity for all, not just the privileged few.
Updated
Starmer says becoming PM two years ago proudest moment of his life
Starmer says walking up this street two years ago was the proudest moment of his life.
A new Labour government, the first in 14 years.
A page in our country’s history turned after years of disappointment and despair, the chance to change the lives of millions of people for the better.
That’s what I came into politics for.
The journey to that point was not easy.
Six years ago, I inherited a Labour party that was politically, financially and morally bankrupt.
I was told time and time again that my party was finished, that we were consigned to history, that a majority at the general election, let alone a landslide majority, was impossible.
Keir Starmer is coming out.
There is loud applause from his staff and supporters.
He looks miserable.
From my colleague Jessica Elgot
Starmer’s closest allies outside Number 10 now - his chief of staff Jill Cuthbertson, the attorney general Richard Hermer, cabinet office minister Chris Ward, Reeves’ chief of staff Ben Nunn, international aid minister Jenny Chapman. These will be the people he listened to.
These are from Steven Swinford from the Times on the conversations that led up to Keir Starmer’s announcement.
* Exchanges with Cabinet ministers were brutal on Friday, more so than previously reported. Starmer tried to convince ministers that Burnham needed to prove himself by helping Labour win Greater Manchester mayoralty. One Cabinet minister shot back that the PM was a ‘drag on the ticket’ and made it less likely they would win. ‘No one supports you any more,’ they said
* Starmer’s reticence in standing down - despite all evidence that it is over - stems from two things. First, animus towards Burnham. He believes, with some justification, that ever since he became Labour leader the mayor of Greater Manchester has tried to undermine him at his weakest moments. He also thinks Burnham is not a ‘substantive’ politician.
* Second, his wife Victoria has argued strongly that he should fight on. One ally said her counsel in Starmer’s final decision should not be underestimated. “She has been the one urging him to fight it,” the ally said. “And she’s the one who’s with him.”
From ITV’s Paul Brand
The podium has now been wheeled out in No10. Keir Starmer is expected to make a statement imminently - within 10 mins or so.
There are now some Downing Street staff beginning to assemble at the far end of the street.
Peter Walker is a senior Guardian political correspondent, who is in Downing Street.
Outside No 10 they have just tested some speakers …
There is a sense of activity stepping up in Downing Street, with officials making sure the media are behind barriers, and otherwise dashing around. It feels like it should be soon now …
And now the lectern is out.
Updated
The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has posted this on social media.
All the signs are there in Number 10 that Starmer statement is not far off
Jessica Elgot is the Guardian’s deputy political editor.
A July transition is the strong preference from many of the most influential figures around Andy Burnham - if there is no other candidate in a leadership contest.
There is a fear among some of his supporters that a longer transition would leave a vacuum for Burnham’s opponents - and online agitators - to start damaging the incoming prime minister before he took power. “There are pros and cons, but we have told the country we are ready to make him prime minister and we should make good on that,” said one.
The Guardian reported in May that the main aim of Burnham’s team was to ensure he was in place to give the leader’s speech by Labour party conference in mid-September - and to give him time to make preparations for entering government.
But there are growing fears of a scenario similar to when Boris Johnson was a “lame duck” prime minister during the summer of 2022 when there was an energy crisis and no government intervention.
No 10 is gearing up for an announcement. This is from the BBC’s Henry Zeffman.
The equipment for a lectern moment is being assembled in Downing Street
This is from Tom Baldwin, Keir Starmer’s biographer, and head of communications for Ed Miliband when he was Labour leader.
We seem to be in a strange place where Keir Starmer is being told he must quit to prevent more uncertainty and chaos (by those who have caused much of it) but then stay on for a couple of months because the guy who has been desperate to take his job is not yet ready to do so…
And these are from John Slinger MP, another Labour voice supportive of the PM.
Keir Starmer has a mandate from Labour members.
He stood on a manifesto and won a mandate from the British people
His challengers haven’t even bothered to challenge him.
What is their manifesto, their prospectus for [Britain].
What would their mandate be?
[Coronations] are for Kings not PMs
Modern politics:
Consumerisation
Rights not responsibilities
Instant gratification
Rolling news over analysis
Blame culture
Toxic social media
Charisma over character
Popularity over policy
Politics = my life over life experience
Disagreeing disagreeably
Short-termism
Out-dated
If you are curious as to why the Labour party is ditching Keir Starmer as PM after less than two years in office, when he clearly isn’t a total disaster like Liz Truss, or a complete scoundrel like Boris Johnson, you should have a look at a terrific series of essays by Chris Clarke on Substack about trust in politics. Starmer is being forced out in part because of mistakes he has made, and weaknesses he has as a communicator and a leader. But he is also in part being forced out because he is operating in an environment where the public are more hostile to politicians than ever before in the modern era.
This chart illustrates this best; it shows the average net satisfaction with all the main party leaders at all points since 1977. As with much in British public life, it’s got a lot worse since Brexit.
It is worth reading the Clarke essays in full, but in essence his argument is that “low trust is the result of a context where our leaders have less agency, but are subject to more exposure and higher expectations. In particular, the intense scrutiny of the information age has caused politicians to shrink from the light.”
In a passage that chimes with what Gus O’Donnell said on the Today programme this morning about manifesto pledges (see 8.29am), Clarke says:
Sections of the population are asking our leaders for things which cannot be done without self-harm to the economy, for reasons which are extremely technical and complex to explain. Steps that the right or the left see as basic common sense – such as sending boats back or banning eight figure salaries, respectively – require significant extrication from the international system to be achieved. This is not to say we could not do more on wealth inequality. But it’s to say that room for manoeuvre has narrowed, forcing the main parties closer together.
Updated
Jacqui Smith, the education minister, was also on the Today programme. When Nick Robinson, the presenter, put it to her that ‘it’s over, isn’t it?’, Smith replied: “No, I think you’re getting ahead of yourself.”
Gus O'Donnell questions whether political turmoil linked to PMs being constrained by manifesto promises
Gus O’Donnell, the former cabinet secretary, was interviewed on the Today programme this morning. Asked if he was worried about Britain becoming as unstable politically as Italy used to be (see 7.11am), O’Donnell replied:
It will be our seventh [PM] in a decade.
I do think we need to think about, if we’re having a prime minister change in mid-term, what’s the problem?
And it quite possibly could be that they’re elected on a manifesto that doesn’t work given the circumstances have changed.
So we’ve had a Middle East war, we’ve had a spike in inflation. Lots of things have changed.
So, maybe, maybe, you need to think some of those things in the manifesto that were perfectly legitimate at the time may not be appropriate given the circumstances we’re in now.
Updated
All the national newspapers are splashing on the fate of Keir Starmer. The BBC has a summary including pictures of all the front pages. Two papers, the Times and the Daily Telegraph, have headlines saying Burnham wants to be PM by September.
Alex Burghart, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, was on the Today programme this morning putting the Conservative party’s case on Keir Starmer being replaced. He said having a new PM would not make much difference because the government’s problems were down to the views of Labour MPs. He said:
Constitutionally there doesn’t have to be a general election, you can change prime ministers. What matters is whether the prime minister has the support of MPs in parliament.
But I have to say that there, it’s not just Keir Starmer’s legitimacy that is being called into question, it’s Labour’s.
You can change the person at the top, but if the MPs underneath still think and vote the same way, then nothing will change.
Burghart quoted Pat McFadden’s joke about Labour MPs wanting higher taxes to fund more welfare, revealed in the Mandelson files, as evidence to support his case.
Normally, when the governing party replaces the PM with the public being consulted, opposition parties demand an election. But given that the Tories changed their leader four times when they were in power without calling an immediate election, the party cannot credibly make that argument now.
But on BBC Breakfast Burghart did say that a period of instability would be “very bad for the United Kingdom” and that “we can’t be a country that changes PM every few years” – implying that he does accept that the Tories’ record in this respect left something to be desired.
Starmer will put 'interests of British people' first in any decision he takes, says education minister Jacqui Smith
Jacqui Smith, the education minister, is doing a broadcast round this morning. Speaking to Times Radio, she said she “would have been happy for [Keir Starmer] to continue” – which sounded like a confirmation that Starmer will announce his resignation, but may just be confirmation that Smith has read the papers.
She also said:
My understanding from those I’ve spoken to who are close to the prime minister yesterday is that the prime minister has spent the weekend thinking really carefully about the future of the country, about what’s the best thing to do for the British people.
He’s also, by the way, been of course engaged in government, responding to the terrible train crash, talking to the chief executive of the East Midlands ambulance service, responding to the attack in Edinburgh.
But he always thinks carefully about the future of this country and the interests of the British people – he puts them, by the way, ahead of the interests of the party – and he will make his own decisions in the light of what obviously everybody can see is a considerable amount of pressure and turbulence.
Peter Kyle, the business secretary, also stressed that Starmer’s priority was acting in the national interest when he gave an interview to the BBC yesterday.
Libby Brooks has written about Keir Starmer’s predicament in her First Edition briefing this morning. Here it is.
And here is an excerpt.
Since then, I’ve reported on people’s anger at successive prime ministers, but none have been so viscerally disliked across the spectrum as Starmer – so I called up Polly [Toynbee], who was busy working on her column, to ask what it is about him that stirs such passion. I’ve heard it myself on the doorsteps during the recent Holyrood election campaign: welfare reforms, Gaza, Mandelson … Weren’t no clothes peg big enough. And still Starmer didn’t take us into an illegal war or party while grieving relatives were kept away from their dying loved ones during Covid lockdowns.
Is it down to that enduring criticism of Starmer’s poor storytelling, or voters’ accumulated disappointments, or simply politics in the social media age?
“I’ve tried to analyse it a bit in the column,” Polly tells me, “which is a kind of warning to Andy Burnham too, that first impressions are so important. First there was Starmer’s very dismal speech in the Downing Street garden, then Rachel Reeves’s very dismal £22m black hole …” Polly’s list goes on: freebies, the winter fuel payment, the farmers’ tax.
“They did a whole string of things behind the scenes that were really important – Great British Energy, the wealth fund – but they’re not the sort of things people notice.
“What’s interesting is that the last four prime ministers have each been the most unpopular ever,” Polly adds. “That’s extraordinary. Maybe we’re in a time of such hatred of politics, after 20 years of stagnation and disappointed expectations.”
Here are some pictures from Downing Street this morning.
Keir Starmer expected to announce exit timetable
Good morning. Tomorrow is the 10th anniversary of the referendum to leave the EU, which means that Wednesday is the 10th anniversary of the day David Cameron announced he was resigning as PM. After Cameron was forced out by the result of his own referendum, another three Tory PMs were forced out by their own MPs (Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss) and another was forced out by the electorate (Rishi Sunak). Keir Starmer has been PM for less than two years, but he is about to become the sixth PM forced out within a decade, being replaced almost certainly by Andy Burnham.
In the past the British used to joke about Italy being a country where prime ministers kept changing all the time. These days Italy looks like a beacon of stability, and Britain has become the place never that far from another bout of political turmoil.
Starmer spent the weekend pondering his future at Chequers. He is back in London now and – although No 10 has not confirmed this – journalists are on standby for an announcement potentially this morning.
Here is our overnight story by Peter Walker and Pippa Crerar.
While a Starmer resignation looks inevitable, we don’t know whether there will be a leadership election or (more likely) an uncontested handover of power to Burnham. And we don’t know whether Starmer will propose staying on until September, or whether the handover will be accelerated. We will find out more as the day goes on.
The crucial event is not in the diary, because it has not been confirmed, but these are the timings we do have.
11.30am: Downing Street is expected to hold a lobby briefing.
2.30pm: Andy Burnham is due to take his seat in the Commons as the new MP for Makerfield.
After 3.30pm: Keir Starmer is expected to make a Commons statement about the G7 summit last week.
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