Prime Minister Narendra Modi headlined the Bharatiya Janata Party’s campaign in Karnataka, pitching for a “double engine sarkar”, with the same party in power at both the Centre and State. He held over 20 rallies and roadshows in the State after elections were declared. An analysis of the election results in these constituencies show that his rallies seem to have had little impact, except for his three roadshows in Bengaluru.
Out of the 17 other locations where the PM held rallies and roadshows, the BJP has won in only five seats. The Congress won in 13 places and the Janata Dal (Secular) won in two seats. However, the BJP insisted that Mr. Modi’s rallies were not targeted to the particular constituencies where they were held, but to adjoining constituencies. When adjoining seats are also considered, these rallies covered over 45 seats. When all 45 seats are considered and their results compared to the BJP’s seat tally in 2018, it has lost five seats. It won 23 seats out of the 45 in 2018, and now has only 18. Congress has gained three of these seats.
For instance, in seats like Shivamogga Rural, Kudachi in Belagavi, Kolar, Vijayanagar, Chitradurga, Sindhanur, Kalaburagi, Karwar, Kittur, Nanjangud, Channapatna, Badami and Haveri seats, where Mr. Modi held rallies, BJP lost out. Of the PM’s rally locations, the BJP won in Humnabad in Bidar, Bijapur City, Belur in Hassan, Mudabidri, and Tumakuru Rural. In Bengaluru, where he held three mega roadshows, the party has maintained status quo.
‘Mandate against PM’
Senior Congress leader Siddaramaiah said that the mandate was against the PM. “I have always maintained that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have no impact in the State. That has been borne out in the results,” he said.
“Even in surveys among people who had gathered at Mr. Modi’s rallies, a significant chunk of people were not openly saying they would vote BJP. Mr. Modi not speaking local issues, not projecting a local leader ensured he did not cut ice,” a senior government functionary said. The Prime Minister’s criticism of the Bajrang Dal ban and his slogans of “Jai Bajrang Bali” had some positive impact on the party’s prospects in coastal Karnataka, but may have not gone down well in other parts of the State, sources said.
A senior BJP leader, who did not wish to be named, also conceded that the campaign by the Prime Minister probably backfired for the party. “It is clear that people of Karnataka prefer a campaign focused on local State-level issues for Assembly elections,” said a BJP functionary, adding that the State has time and again shown that it votes differently in Parliament elections. In the general election campaign, Narendra Modi was a towering figure, borne out by the 25 Lok Sabha seats the party won from the State in 2019, the functionary said.
Long-term view
Another senior BJP leader said that the party had deployed the PM, along with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in several Old Mysuru districts, to make inroads into the region in view of the upcoming Lok Sabha election. The BJP has improved its vote share in the Old Mysuru region, though it has failed to convert those votes into seats. For instance, in the Mandya district, where all three Central leaders campaigned, the JD(S) lost three seats because the BJP’s vote share increased drastically, leading to a Congress victory. The BJP also picked up two seats in Hassan district.
Giving another example, a senior party leader said that the rally in Kolar was aimed at voters in next year’s general election. The BJP had won the seat for the first time in 2019, defeating Congress stalwart K.H. Muniyappa. “In the 2019 elections, we won almost all seats in the Old Mysore region, except two seats. This time, the increase in our vote share in the region and the shrinking of the JD(S) is an indication that we are making inroads with the help of Mr. Modi,” the senior leader said.
