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LiveScience
LiveScience
Patrick Pester

'Just the tip of the iceberg': Why risky asteroids like 2024 YR4 will pester Earth for decades to come

An illustration of three asteroids heading towards Earth. .

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has gone from a potential 'city-killer' to an almost certain near-misser this week as the odds that this large space rock will hit Earth in 2032 rose and then plummeted in a matter of days. Here's what happened and why it matters.

2024 YR4 is around 180 feet (55 meters) wide, with the potential to release 500 times more energy than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. A little concern was therefore understandable on Tuesday (Feb. 18), when the likelihood of YR4 hitting us crept up to 3.1% — the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for a space object of 2024 YR4's size or larger.

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