Sunday’s matchups in Week 10 started with a morning tilt between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots and ended with a prime time battle between the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders. Yes, it was every bit as bad as it sounds.
But in between we got a slew of walk-off field goals and a handful of routs; some expected (anyone vs. the New York Giants) and some not (what happened, Jacksonville Jaguars?). We got more extended excellence from C.J. Stroud and, at least a little bit, Joshua Dobbs. We got a triumphant return from Kyler Murray amidst a textbook Falcons-ing. And we got further proof the Detroit Lions could be a real problem in the NFC.
So what were the best, and worst, things to happen in Week 10?
1
Best: Josh Dobbs' continued, extremely unexpected brilliance
Dobbs has been a Viking for less than two weeks. He’s already got two wins as the team’s primary quarterback.
The journeyman, acquired for a late swap of Day 3 draft picks at the trade deadline, continued Minnesota’s comeback from a 1-3 start and the loss of starting quarterback Kirk Cousins by fending off the New Orleans Saints 27-19. Dobbs was responsible for two of those touchdowns, one of which came via confounding scramble.
Takeoff 🚀@josh_dobbs1
📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/lWu5Ic3a2z
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 12, 2023
Dobbs ran 45 yards to gain seven and it was magic.
Joshua Dobbs traveled 45.2 yards from snap to score on his 7-yard scramble TD run.
Dobbs has gained +130 rushing yards over expected on scramble runs this season, more than double the next closest QB (Mahomes, +58 RYOE on scrambles).#NOvsMIN | #Skol pic.twitter.com/DrbPCYvBy0
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 12, 2023
He also threw a touchdown pass to T.J. Hockenson, capping off a day with 300-plus total yards and keeping the Vikings very much in the NFC playoff hunt. He’s been historically good in his Minnesota debut, only further rubbing in the fact the New York Jets could have easily traded for him to replace Zach Wilson and just … didn’t.
#Vikings QB Josh Dobbs is the first player in NFL history to record 400 pass yards, 100 rush yards and 0 interceptions in a player’s first 2 games with a team.
Minnesota has won five games without Justin Jefferson and two without him and Kirk Cousins. pic.twitter.com/mpinb4lVbW— Ed Werder (@WerderEdESPN) November 12, 2023
2
Best: Mike Tomlin, the wizard we take for granted
Here’s how Kenny Pickett, starting quarterback of the Pittsburgh Steelers, ranks among the 33 qualified starters at his position through Week 10 when it comes to expected points added (EPA).
The only quarterback with worse advanced stats bonafides is Zach Wilson. Yet Pickett is 6-3 and has his Steelers in position to make a playoff appearance. Some of that is thanks to Pickett’s ability to rise to the occasion late in close games:
Kenny Pickett spends 40-50 minutes every Sunday playing like absolute garbage, then finds a way to hit George Pickens with a perfect back-shoulder laser and, suddenly, all is well again pic.twitter.com/9LIOhpTFG3
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 12, 2023
But much more credit belongs to Tomlin, who understands how to mitigate his own team’s flaws better than almost anyone in the NFL. Pittsburgh has a weak offensive line, untrustable quarterback and iffy cornerback rotation. But the Steelers are winning games despite being out-gained every week because Tomlin finds ways to maximize his opportunities.
On offense, he bides his time with short, low-risk passes and runs to hide Pickett’s struggles and create space for those big throws late. The defense gets a massive push up front from T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith to reduce the time opposing wideouts have to get open and the quality of throws that go their way. This is a team built around its flaws, and its winning because Tomlin knows exactly how much he needs to do to overcome them.
3
Worst: The Patriots' leadership, who are just as frustrated with Mac Jones as the rest of us.
Robert Kraft once got roasted online for reading lines alongside an aspiring actress. On Sunday morning stateside, he slipped into the most convincing role of his life; normal fan, forced to pin his hopes to Michael McCorkle Jones.
Third-down pass that probably should’ve been an end-zone interception from Mac Jones; owner Robert Kraft’s reaction. pic.twitter.com/chyckFw2oi
— Michael Hurley (@michaelFhurley) November 12, 2023
That’s the face of a man watching what should have been a go-ahead touchdown deflate into a disgusting red zone interception. Kraft, if his face is any indication, is nearing a breaking point as the franchise he owns — the one that has never bottomed out with him at the top — plumbs new depths of futility.
Jones was the architect of an offense that failed to find the end zone in a 10-6 loss. He was screamed at by his offensive coordinator and benched by Bill Belichick. He’s almost certainly in his last year as a key figure with the team — and so may be Belichick, who is staring down the first back-to-back losing seasons of his career as Patriots head coach.
4
Best: C.J. Stroud, the light at the end of the Texans' tunnel
The Houston Texans have won five games in 2023. This is important, because they haven’t done that yet this decade.
Houston topped out at four wins over the last four years, never even sniffing a winning record. But after a comeback win over the Cincinnati Bengals they’re 5-4 and, crucially, one game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South title race. This is in part to several changes from a franchise that finally cashed in its rebuilding chips last offseason — and none is more important than Stroud.
CJ Stroud creating something out of nothing here pic.twitter.com/ReknlLOQAC
— DJ Bien-Aime (@Djbienaime) November 12, 2023
Over the last two weeks — both wins sealed by game-winning drives in the final seconds — Stroud has thrown for 826 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception. With the game on the line he has continually and consistently risen to the occasion with a confidence that betrays his rookie status. He looks like he’s been doing this forever. He is only 22 years old.
This is not only incredible for a team in need of a franchise quarterback, but also adds value to last year’s draft day deal that brought Will Anderson Jr. to Houston at the cost of next year’s first round pick. Over the last four seasons that’s typically meant a top-five selection; this year it may not even be a top-20 pick. Anderson, meanwhile, had two quarterback hits Sunday and while that hasn’t translated into sacks (only two on the season so far) he looks like a difference maker in the pass rush.
What Stroud has done can’t be summed up in numbers. He’s in the midst of arguably the best stretch of football a rookie quarterback has ever played. He’s responsible for nearly 31 expected points added (EPA) over the last two weeks. He’s got 15 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. And, vitally, he has the Texans — the Texans! — in position for a playoff spot.
C.J. Stroud BALLED OUT 🚀
Only rookie in the last 40 years to lead consecutive game-winning drives in the final 2 minutes of regulation 🤯 pic.twitter.com/fSo9VTDLdt— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 12, 2023
Awesome.
5
Best: Kyler Murray, who is detrimental to the Cardinals' best tanking interests
Murray’s return from a torn ACL meant Clayton Tune, the fourth-round rookie responsible for -34 expected points added (EPA) in Week 9, was mercifully returned to the bench (for all but one play, a one-yard touchdown dive. Progress!). That left a rusty-but-talented young veteran to pick up the slack and prove he could still be his team’s franchise quarterback.
It’s just one week, but Murray is giving his front office something to think about.
Kyler Murray looking like his pre-injury self in his very first game back from ACLR. Put that in your database, nerds
pic.twitter.com/2FLFIiKo1W— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) November 13, 2023
That run, which led to a game-winning walkoff field goal, was exactly the kind of [expletive] that makes Murray so difficult to quantify when he’s on your team and defend against when he’s not. He ran nearly 70 yards to get to the sticks and you could argue not a single one was wasted:
Kyler Murray traveled 68.9 yards on his 13-yard scramble that kept the Cardinals game-winning drive alive. Murray reached a top speed of 20.17 mph, his fastest speed since Week 16, 2021.
🔹 Win Probability Added: +22.6%#ATLvsAZ | #BirdGang pic.twitter.com/zR2JKSw2sM
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 13, 2023
The downside is, Murray wasn’t great through the air. He was willing to take big shots downfield despite a depleted receiving corps, which is good. He completed just four of his 14 throws that traveled at least 10 yards downfield, which is bad. His downfield placement and vision isn’t back up to game condition yet. That could change and he could take the reins and prove the Cardinals right to give him a massive extension last offseason. Or it can be the weak point in his game and set a low ceiling on the team’s performance for years to come.
We know know what that outcome will be, but we know Murray remains a dangerous runner who can extend plays with his legs and bolt upfield for devastating gains. That’s worth something, even if it means a few more wins that could slide this team out of the top slot in next year’s draft. That’s a pick that could be used on Murray’s replacement or auctioned off to find the missing pieces to revitalize the franchise. How the next eight weeks unfold will determine which.
6
Worst: Trevor Lawrence, who the San Francisco 49ers stuffed into a locker
If we take away any games played under Urban Meyer — and we should, as it was Jacksonville’s effort to win a Formula One race in a Honda Civic — this was the worst game of Lawrence’s professional career. The 49ers used their first opportunity to show off a Chase Young-Nick Bosa edge rush that sacked the third-year quarterback five times in 34 dropbacks and hit him 10 more, limiting him to just five throws that traveled more than 15 yards downfield despite trailing early and, then, significantly at home.
Defense applying pressure in Pick City!
📺 #SFvsJAX on FOX
📱 NFL+ // https://t.co/KTh0i4nCVJ pic.twitter.com/Ppc3tIgqy3— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 12, 2023
Lawrence has done his best in a quick-fire offense and his 2.43 seconds from snap to throw was second-lowest in the NFL this fall. That number rose to just under 2.8 seconds vs. the Niners as he tried, unsuccessfully, to avoid the pressure that blocked off open windows before they could unveil themselves. That’s great news for San Francisco, who papered over an iffy secondary with a bruising pass rush. It’s much less so for the Jaguars, whose attempts at offensive line upgrades this offseason haven’t turned out as planned.
Lawrence finished his day with 157 net yards on 34 dropbacks, zero touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. This was supposed to be an opportunity to prove Jacksonville was a legitimate contender, especially coming off a bye week. Instead, the 34-3 loss kept the world doubting these Jags — and let the Houston Texans creep a game closer in the AFC South standings.
7
Worst: The New York Giants
Just, all of it. It’s all bad.
This team was a ridiculous 17-point underdog in Week 10 and was failing to cover before halftime. Daniel Jones is hurt. Tyrod Taylor is hurt. Tommy DeVito is Tommy DeVito. Andrew Thomas is, now, hurt.
Last sight Giants want to see: Andrew Thomas is down. Looks like his left leg got rolled up on that tackle.
— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) November 12, 2023
Thomas returned, but the sight of a once promising prospect zombily shuffling its way through a futile effort with nothing but heartache waiting on the other side felt a bit too on the nose for the Giants. The final aggregate score of New York’s two games against Dallas? Cowboys 88, Giants 17.
8
Best: The Cowboys' passing offense, making Brandin Cooks relevant again
Week 10 was a great experience for Cowboys WR2/3 types both past and present. Former Dallas wideout Noah Brown exploded for seven catches and 172 yards with the Houston Texans. But that may not have been the finest performance from one of Dak Prescott’s depth options on Sunday.
That belongs to Brandin Cooks, who had nine catches for 173 yards in three quarters of work carving the New York Giants into bite-sized morsels and serving them back to the football gods.
Involving Brandin Cooks >
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/Ck09qJSXlD
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) November 12, 2023
Cooks wasn’t the only receiving to thrive alongside Dak Prescott (and Cooper Rush). Prescott turned the Giants’ man coverage into mincemeat, pushing CeeDee Lamb to his third straight game with at least 10 catches and 150 receiving yards. Michael Gallup had 70 yards on two receptions, including a beautiful touchdown catch.
The @dallascowboys are putting on a show tonight! pic.twitter.com/0ReQPQCn4R
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) November 12, 2023
Jake Ferguson got into the action with four catches. So did Jalen Brooks, a rookie seventh-round pick who’d only played 20 snaps before Sunday. The Dallas offense was absolutely dealing in Week 10, and while it’ll be hard to take any of that too seriously because (/gestures broadly toward the smoking crater where the New York Giants used to be), it was impressive for at least one game.
9
Best: Geno Smith fights off regression
It was fair to worry about whether Geno Smith could continue to flirt with being a top-10 quarterback. He backslid through the end of his breakthrough 2022 season. He appeared to be backsliding again in 2023. Between Weeks 6 and 9, his -0.07 expected points added (EPA) per play ranked 28th out of 32 starting quarterbacks. Not coincidentally, the Seahawks turned the ball over multiple times in each of those games and went 2-2.
On Sunday, Smith was responsible for nine expected points on his own. In the fourth quarter of a tie game, he completed five of five passes for 50 yards and a touchdown to take a 26-19 lead over the Washington Commanders. One drive later, stuck once more with a knotted score and 52 seconds on the clock, Smith completed four of five passes for 50 more yards before spiking the ball to set up Jason Myers’ game-winning 43-yard field goal.
Geno to Lockett to give Seattle the lead with 3:45 to go!
📺: #WASvsSEA on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kECSNGc6Bj pic.twitter.com/GEKH6q5bpQ— NFL (@NFL) November 13, 2023
It was just the reassuring performance Smith needed to revive Seattle’s postseason hopes. While it came against a depleted Washington defense, the veteran displayed the poise and vision needed to make this team better than decent. The Seahawks still have several issues to fix — namely a defense that just gave up 26 points to Sam Howell — but getting Smith back to the best version of himself would make most of those issues a lot more tolerable.
typical geno pic.twitter.com/FhaUW4REnG
— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) November 13, 2023
