TAMPA, Fla. — The dismay is borne of expectations.
How can an offense with the NFL’s all-time leading passer be near the bottom of the league in scoring? How does an offense with multiple Pro Bowl receivers and tight ends falter? How does a running back, taken with the No. 4 pick in a draft, end up 46th in the NFL in yards per attempt?
This is why offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is under fire, and this is why headlines across the globe are questioning Tom Brady’s decision to un-retire.
But the reality, it turns out, is a little more complex. There is nuance. There are mitigating factors. There is a chain-reaction quality toward this train wreck of an offense.
It doesn’t excuse Leftwich’s performance — it’s his job to find solutions to the problems — but it helps explain how the Bucs have gone from averaging 30.3 points during Brady’s first 39 games in a Tampa bay uniform (including postseason) to 17.7 points through this season’s first seven games.
Start with a rebuilt offensive line that is seemingly incapable of run-blocking. Subtract a Hall of Fame tight end who was a matchup nightmare. And then add a quarterback who is effectively immobile and in a hurry to get rid of the ball.
The result? Brady’s first 3-4 start in 20 years.
“I just think we’re not hitting on all cylinders like we used to,” Leftwich said. “I think we’re used to being almost automatic, and we’re not right now. So how do we get ourselves back to being automatic?”
Coaches and players offer the same tired refrain about a lack of execution, but what if that’s not the solution? What if there are inherent flaws in this version of Tampa Bay’s offense that can only be solved by changing personnel or changing the way they approach game plans?
This is a completely different scenario than 2019, when Jameis Winston led the league in interceptions and was near the top in sacks. That Bucs offense could move the ball but was sabotaged by critical mistakes. What we’re seeing today is almost an alternate universe. Brady has the best interception rate and one of the best sack rates in the NFL, but these Bucs lack explosiveness.
The Bucs have thrown almost the same number of passes through seven games as they did last season, but roughly 69 percent have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, according to Pro Football Focus research. Last season, at the same point, that figure was 59 percent.
The difference, in raw numbers, is about 330 yards less offense in the downfield passing game. The difference in how defenses can play the Bucs is even greater.
With the threat of downfield passing so underwhelming, defenses can keep a safety or two in deep coverage and then flood the line of scrimmage with bodies. For a Bucs team that struggles to run the ball — and a team that doesn’t have a dominant, big-body tight end such as Rob Gronkowski — that can severely cut into Brady’s options and passing lanes.
“It’s just a different team than … in the past,” Leftwich said. “Some (people) thought we went down the field too much, right? Now we’re not getting there as much. I believe we’ll get there. We’ll see. But we’re playing to our team’s strengths.”
But that’s the problem. What is this offense’s strengths?
It’s certainly not running the ball. It is at the bottom of the NFL in rushing yards. It’s no longer downfield passing. A year ago, Brady led the NFL in completions of more than 20 yards. This season, he’s not even in the top 10.
The question is whether that’s a function of Leftwich’s game plans and play-calling or whether Brady is taking it upon himself to dump the ball quickly.
Brady’s average time in delivering a pass is 2.26 seconds, according to Pro Football Focus. In the past 10 years, only two quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger in 2020 and Peyton Manning in 2014) got rid of the football quicker.
By itself, the ability to deliver a pass swiftly is a huge advantage. It’s one of the reasons Brady has not been sacked much, and it’s one of the reasons he’s still in the pocket at age 45.
But if an offense is largely dependent on slants, swing passes and wide receiver screens, there’s not a defensive coordinator in the NFL who isn’t capable of shutting that down.
That’s not an execution problem. That’s a planning and personnel problem. Does that mean replacing left guard Luke Goedeke, who is one of the lowest-rated linemen in the league? Probably. Does it mean less carries for a bulldozing back such as Leonard Fournette and more carries for a slasher such as Rachaad White? Hopefully. Does it mean revamping the game plan? Oh, heck yeah.
The Bucs keep saying this is not the same team as 2020-21.
Yeah, we know. But what are they going to do about it?
