John Fetterman can still become the next senator from Pennsylvania, the Democrat who safeguards their fragile majority. He is effectively tied or leads in many reputable polls, and he’s been a prodigious fundraiser throughout the race. Few left-leaning Democrats, in such foreboding terrain, have engineered a coalition this formidable.
All of this must be stated outright because Fetterman’s lone televised debate performance was disastrous. In May, he suffered a stroke, and he could not speak consistently and coherently on Tuesday against his Republican opponent, Dr Mehmet Oz. While partisans online defended his speaking style and pleaded for empathy – all victims of health calamities certainly deserve it – it was inarguable that Fetterman struggled, and even sympathetic observers acknowledged a debate format was a steep challenge. Fetterman is simply not the candidate he was before his stroke.
But he can recover, and probably will – with a strong medical team, a well-heeled politician can regain the functions he lost. Fetterman’s speech and auditory processing are impaired, but not his cognition. Staff can certainly assist him with his Senate duties if he manages to get to Washington next year.
On the merits, Fetterman is far better prepared for the job than Oz, a celebrity doctor with no political experience. Fetterman was the mayor of Braddock, an ailing town outside of Pittsburgh, and he has spent years aiding and organizing disaffected working-class voters who have been fast leaving the Democratic party. His victory in the primary was commanding – he crushed a celebrated centrist congressman, Conor Lamb, winning all across the state – and demonstrated he was a candidate who could appeal to progressives and moderates alike, exciting both the activist grassroots and regular Democrats. Fetterman became the answer to the old Bernie v Hillary civil war – why not a candidate who can be both?
If Fetterman’s campaign erred, it was not being straightforward and honest about his health from the beginning. It was not clear, in retrospect, he should have performed in a televised debate at all, though Fetterman’s camp was placed in a difficult situation: reject all debates and endure media censure or run a candidate into the arena who simply wasn’t ready. They chose the latter and they’ll suffer the political consequences, whatever they may be.
It’s not clear, ultimately, how much the debate will matter. Pennsylvania, like many swing states, is incredibly polarized, and most voters have already made up their minds. Democrats are correct to look past Fetterman’s health and vote for him anyway: politics is zero-sum and control of the Senate is at stake. Republicans, conversely, will hold their nose for the New Jersey-residing Oz, who has run an ineffectual campaign. If issues like abortion rights and climate change matter to you, Fetterman is the clear choice, stroke or no.
If Fetterman is going to lose, it will be because the national environment has curdled too much for Democrats. There are the normal dynamics of a midterm year, the party in power enduring a backlash. And there’s stubbornly high inflation, which has become a Democratic problem because they control Congress and the White House. Oz, like other Republicans, has tried to disingenuously tie Fetterman to an elevated crime rate, attacking him for clemencies he recommended while he served as lieutenant governor. Crime, like inflation, has become a dominant theme in the final weeks of the campaign and it’s not hard to imagine these attacks undercutting Fetterman at the polls.
At question, too, is what will happen in the Pennsylvania governor’s race. Josh Shapiro, the Democratic attorney general, holds a stronger lead over Doug Mastriano, a far-right state senator who occupies the very fringes of Trumpworld. Oz has managed to position himself as more of a moderate, aiming to scoop up Shapiro voters who could end up splitting their ticket if they view Fetterman, hulking and tattooed, as too far out of the mainstream.
A dominant enough win from Shapiro, of course, could pull Fetterman to victory. With another presidential election looming in 2024 and Donald Trump threatening a third campaign, it’s vital for Democrats to sweep Pennsylvania: both to keep the Senate and head off another election-stealing plot from the Republican party. November 8 may very well be a pivot point of history.
Ross Barkan is a writer based in New York
