The moment Joe Biden walked off the debate stage last Thursday night, the clock started ticking. There was a small window of time after the president’s disastrous performance in which he could have made a dignified exit from the 2024 race. He could have called a press conference on Monday morning and said he had carefully assessed the calls made by the New York Times editorial board and high-profile pundits and political consultants urging him to step down. He could have said he had decided it was the best thing to do for the future of the US and democracy itself. Biden would have looked selfless; a man putting country before ego. The Democratic party could have gone swiftly to work, rallying behind a replacement.
I am not saying this scenario would have been simple. Of course not. It would have been a mess! But not as much of a mess as the situation we find ourselves in now. The window for a dignified exit has passed. Doubts about Biden’s cognitive fitness, meanwhile, are only increasing. According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, 72% of registered voters don’t think Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president; the same percentage don’t think he should be running for president. Among Democratic registered voters, 46% don’t think he should be running for president, up from 36% earlier this year.
Biden disagrees. The president, it seems, has dug in his heels and is determined to stay the course for a rematch with Donald Trump. The Democratic National Convention (DNC) is apparently on board with making this happen. Bloomberg reported on Monday afternoon that the DNC is considering formally nominating Biden as early as mid-July to “stamp out intraparty chatter of replacing him”.
The president’s family, a major influence on him, reportedly bear much responsibility for this decision. The Biden clan gathered at Camp David on Sunday and, according to multiple reports, urged him to “keep fighting”. The New York Times stated: “One of the strongest voices imploring Mr Biden to resist pressure to drop out was his son, Hunter Biden, whom the president has long leaned on for advice.” Which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence: Hunter has poor judgment and a well-documented history of scandals. (To be clear, I am not sneering at his drug use; addicts deserve empathy. Drugs aside, his questionable business dealings and chaotic personal life make it difficult to look at Hunter and think: “Yeah, that’s a guy I should take advice from.”)
Fingers are not just being pointed at Hunter. The conservative pundit Tucker Carlson reportedly told his audience that Jill Biden is keeping her husband away from people who would convince him to drop out. Meanwhile, the billionaire Bill Ackman ranted on X that Jill Biden doesn’t want to give up the perks of being first lady and is forcing her husband to stay on. This narrative may be in bad faith and of questionable veracity. Still, it doesn’t help that the first lady is on the cover of the July issue of Vogue, which dropped on Monday, with her nose in the air alongside the words: “We will decide our future.” It’s terrible timing and conservative commentators are gleefully using this to argue that the Biden family are power-hungry autocrats.
To be fair, it is not just Biden’s family who don’t think he should drop out. He still has plenty of cheerleaders including Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly forecast the results of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections through his 13 “keys” to the White House. Lichtman recently told CNN calls to replace Biden are “foolhardy nonsense”. Lichtman says debate performance isn’t a factor that determines the outcome of an election: “Debate performances can be overcome.”
Of course, one bad debate performance can be overcome. But Biden has been battling questions about his mental and physical fitness for a long time; it will take more than a few perky public performances to put people’s minds at rest. Then there are Biden’s other challenges. The president had already alienated progressives because of his unconscionable Gaza policy. Yes, many progressives will still hold their nose and vote for him in November, but will they campaign for him? Will they sacrifice spare hours to knock on doors and staff the phonelines for a man nicknamed Genocide Joe? Will they devote unpaid time to convincing the important undecided voting bloc that Biden is up to the job? I don’t think so. The Democratic party has treated activists and young progressives with disdain. Now, more than ever, they will need their energy and enthusiasm to win.
• Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian columnist
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