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Matthew Hobkinson

Javi Gracia seal of approval as supercomputer boosts survival forecast after Southampton win

Leeds United have been backed by data analysts FiveThirtyEight to finish 16th in the Premier League this season in their latest supercomputer predictions, after beating Southampton 1-0 on Saturday.

Junior Firpo's first goal for the club saw Leeds win their first top-flight match since November. His 77th minute strike got Javi Gracia's tenure off to the perfect start as scenes of wild celebration took place inside Elland Road.

Everton and Bournemouth also lost their respective matches to Aston Villa and Manchester City to cap off a near-perfect set of results in the Premier League for Leeds this weekend.

ALSO READ: Javi Gracia made Leeds United less 'predictable' during Southampton win insists Micah Richards

And after beating relegation rivals Southampton on Saturday, FiveThirtyEight's latest supercomputer prediction sees them move up a place to finish in 16th - two places and four points ahead of the Toffees in 18th come May.

They predict that Leeds now have a 24 per cent chance of going down this season, compared to Nottingham Forest (38%), Everton (54%), Bournemouth (65%) and Southampton (72%).

FiveThirtyEight simulate a team's remaining league matches 20,000 times using weighted probabilities for each result. Every week the table is updated based on a side's form and prior results, with those on winning streaks seeing improved forecasts and those on a poor run subsequently penalised.

Therefore if Leeds can back-up their victory against the Saints and do the double over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge next weekend, the forecast will only get better for the Whites.

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