Hitting coach Andy Haines has become a popular target for fan frustration amid plenty of Pirates struggles: losses in 12 of 13 after Sunday's shutout — their 10th, tied for an MLB high — plus ranking 28th in runs (72) and 29th in OPS (.626) this month.
None of this is meant to defend Haines — the results have not been good enough — but the problem could be larger in scope.
The adjustment in strategy actually traces back to this offseason, when general manager Ben Cherington said the Pirates wanted to improve their on-base numbers. In a vacuum, it's not dumb. Have to get on base to score. The issue has been how that strategy has played out for the Pirates, in a couple different ways.
After finishing 28th in on-base percentage at .291 last season, the Pirates added several players this past offseason who have a history of strong on-base numbers in Ji-Man Choi, Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe.
To a certain degree, it has worked. The Pirates were 27th in runs last season. They're 25th in 2023 (with 313). Their team OBP ranks 21st (.315) entering Monday's games, while their OPS has gone from 28th (.655) to 23rd (.700).
The Pirates are clearly trying to be extra selective in the box, theoretically knocking starters out of the game early or chewing through bullpens during the course of a series. More evidence: They chase pitches at a lower rate (24.8%) than anyone else and rank fifth in MLB with 274 walks.
However, their obsession with walking has been incomplete. Outside of McCutchen and Joe's first month, the new guys haven't done a ton. Young guys have been inconsistent and are now pressing. The power — an important component to doing something with all those free passes — has lacked.
Consider, six of the top 10 in chase rate ranked in the top 10 in runs scored ... but five of those also ranked in the top 10 in slugging percentage. Meanwhile, 13 of the top 15 in slugging ranked in the top half for runs.
The Pirates are 25th in slugging percentage at .385, a glaring outlier to their statistical profile. The byproduct seems to be hitters who've become entirely too passive, either by choice in trying to adopt the approach, or because the continued emphasis of working walks has them wrapped around the axle.
McCutchen (1.3 Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs) has been a worthwhile investment at $5 million, but Santana and Choi — $11,375,000 allocated to injecting some pop into the lineup — have largely been a disappointment, combining to produce 0.1 fWAR.
Whether the Pirates ultimately keep Haines — the odds on them firing him in-season are small — or not, they'd be wise to adjust their approach. They need to untangle hitters' brains and build confidence by emphasizing the need to swing more and develop a more aggressive mindset at the plate.
What's the worst that can happen? They don't score? We've seen that movie far too many times this season.
Why was Derek Shelton extended?
This isn't a new question, but it remains as relevant as ever during these tough times. His contract extension was announced on April 22, when the Pirates were 14-7. They've gone 21-35 since. Entering Sunday, Shelton had a 177-284 career record, which means he has the same winning percentage (.384) as John Russell, who was fired after going 186-299.
The craziest part is that it wasn't even attached to the team's hot start. Multiple sources told the Post-Gazette that the Pirates had made the decision weeks prior that Shelton would get an extension. It was only a matter of working out subsequent details and contract language.
None of this is to say Shelton is a terrible manager. Maybe they pull out of this thing, enjoy a great July and contend in the NL Central. But he was under contract through this season. Cherington also loves to talk about how the front office uses every available minute when making decision such as Rule 5 protection, non-tendering contracts, etc.
The rush to judgement here was strange, out of character, and it has unnecessarily caused a bunch of fan frustration, with people wondering why the heck this decision was made so early.
Who's next prospect-wise?
Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales made it a busy week in that department, both enjoying their MLB debuts, and they shouldn't be the last. Given the latest bit of futility — Ji Hwan Bae, Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro and Austin Hedges have combined for one (!) hit in their past 101 at-bats — it should be open season on Triple-A promotions.
Outside of potentially moving on from Haines, it's one of the only forms of change the Pirates can reasonably produce.
With 11 strikeouts over six scoreless frames on Saturday, Quinn Priester delivered exactly what the organization was looking for from him — a feel-good outing as his MLB debut nears. Should Priester continue to pitch at a high level, it's hard to imagine he doesn't get a call the next time the Pirates need a starter.
Jared Triolo is also making an intriguing push for playing time. Prior to Sunday, he was hitting .329 with 15 runs scored, five doubles, three triples, a home run, 11 RBIs and seven steals in 19 June games.
Endy Rodriguez started the day Sunday without a homer in 31 games, batting .244 during that time. He went yard against Columbus and collected a pair of hits to up his average .248. It's not quite what you'd want, but it's also better than any of the other available options.
Is catcher defense overrated?
The Hedges saga reached a boiling point last homestand, with fans booing the Pirates catcher, Shelton calling it "unfortunate" and Hedges lamenting the lack of education or appreciation for what a catcher does.
Let's set that discussion down for a minute and start another one: Does defense out of a catcher — specifically pitch-framing — actually matter?
It could ... but it's certainly not essential.
When looking at the top 10 teams in terms of ERA this season, only four (Yankees, Rangers, Braves and Giants) are also in the top 10 in framing runs, per FanGraphs. Furthermore, six of FanGraphs' top 10 in defensive outs above average (Def) last season missed the postseason.
So while the top 10 pitch-framing teams won at a .510 clip (828-795) in 2022, it's hard to consider this stuff irreplaceable, especially if you're able to somehow extract offense from that position.
Nine of the top 10 teams when it comes to OPS by catchers had a .500 winning percentage or better, and six of those also had a top-10 offense.
What's this mean for the trade deadline?
When the Pirates were flirting with .500 and within striking distance for the NL Central lead, it was an easy answer. Don't yank the carpet out from under yourselves by becoming sellers at the trade deadline.
Forget that if this slide continues for much longer.
Now, tradable commodities are certainly scarce. They can't trade McCutchen. It also could be tough to ship out one of the two first basemen: Choi because he's been hurt, Santana because he has a .675 OPS on a $6.725 million contract, though he could still help a team down the stretch like he did with Seattle last season.
The most intriguing effect this could have involves Rich Hill, who has helped a young pitching staff but is also 43 and on an expiring $8 million deal. If the Pirates could find a taker for Hill, they'd be silly to resist, even though it would bring about even more concerns regarding pitching depth.
