New Zealand’s ruling Labour Party lost a seat in a by-election, adding to signs that support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s administration is waning ahead of a nationwide vote next year.
The Hamilton West by-election was won by the main opposition National Party, provisional results showed Sunday. While voter turnout was low and the outcome is inconsequential for the balance power in the current parliament, it underscores a swing in sentiment away from Labour.
Ardern is facing an uphill battle to secure a third term in the 2023 general election, which is likely to be held toward the end of next year. The central bank is forecasting a recession starting in the second quarter as it aggressively raises interest rates to regain control of inflation, while opposition parties have been attacking the government over a recent spate of youth crime.
A 1News/Kantar poll published last week showed Labour falling 1 percentage point to 33% support, five points behind National on 38%. National’s likely coalition partner, the ACT Party, climbed two points to 11% support, which would give the pair a parliamentary majority if the results were replicated at the election.
It’s a rapid reversal of fortunes for Ardern, who stormed to a landslide victory just two years ago on the back of her early success at keeping COVID-19 out of the country. Now that the virus is here to stay, voters’ minds have turned to the state of the economy and law and order.
Recent headlines have been dominated by a wave of so-called ram raids, with youths using cars to bash their way into locked shops late at night to steal goods. That’s allowed opposition parties to accuse the government of going soft on crime and pledge stiffer penalties if elected. The fatal stabbing of a corner-store owner on Nov. 23 added to the furor.
The Hamilton West by-election was triggered by Labour’s expulsion of rebel MP Gaurav Sharma, who accused the party of bullying.
Sharma won the seat in 2020 with a 6,267 vote majority, ending National’s hold on it as Ardern led Labour to the first outright majority since the introduction of proportional representation in 1996.
National candidate Tama Potaka’s margin of victory in the by-election was 2,285 votes, the provisional results showed.
Labour has 64 votes in the 120-seat parliament. National now has 34.
