For a party that has developed a reputation for regicide over the past few years, Conservative MPs still have a habit of delaying the inevitable. Theresa May limped on for nearly two years after her authority was destroyed by the loss of the Tory majority. There was a slow ebbing of power – and various failed plots – before she was eventually forced to say she’d go. Boris Johnson was pushed out months after the Partygate scandal first broke. MPs kept stepping back from their anonymous threats to the point that Johnson’s team began to believe it was all a bluff. It was only after a scandal involving the deputy chief whip that they went in for the kill.
But with Liz Truss, could the party be about to buck the trend and opt for a swift finish? A combination of dismal polling, economic uncertainty and Labour’s call for a general election is leading to increased talk among MPs that matters must come to a head sooner rather than later. When might they try to force her out? “It feels like this week or next; MPs are struggling to find a reason as to why she should stay,” claims a former minister. “I think it will be imminent,” adds a senior backbencher. “But that may be my hope rather than the reality.”
Until last week, there was a sense among MPs that Truss still had time left to try to steady the ship. Most in the party were – and many still are – horrified by the idea of ousting a leader after just six weeks in the job. The next flashpoint was viewed as the Halloween fiscal event, when the government would attempt to fix the damage from the not-so-mini budget and reassure the markets that they had a plan to balance the books after all.
But Truss’s decision on Friday to sack her close political ally and chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, as well as a U-turn on the campaign pledge to halt the corporation tax hike, has led to a change in mood. OBR forecasts, seen by the government, that predict a black hole in the public finances as a result of the mini-budget focused minds in No 10. They led Truss to bring in Jeremy Hunt and more U-turns will shortly follow. Truss’s new chancellor has made clear over the weekend in various media interviews that he will preside over a new approach: taxes will be going up and spending cuts are coming.
In short, Trussonomics is dead, to be replaced – by necessity – with a very unappealing economic mix. The question that remains is whether Truss’s time in No 10 is about to come to an end, too.
Truss has tacitly admitted that her political project is no more, leaving even her supporters wondering: what exactly is the point of her government? They didn’t pick her for her communication skills. They did so for the promise of low taxes and delivery. MPs on the right of the party who have gone out to defend Truss and the plan for growth have been left red-faced.
Hunt’s appointment was intended to calm the markets, and when they reopen on Monday, it will quickly become clear whether this part of the plan has worked. But the second aspect of his appointment is political: to split Truss’s opponents.
Hunt was one of a handful of names, among them Nadhim Zahawi, considered for the role. Inside No 10, the left of the party is viewed as the greater threat to the prime minister for the time being. The idea of the return of Rishi Sunak – potentially backed up by Penny Mordaunt – has been gaining traction with One Nation MPs. By appointing Hunt, Truss supporters hope to not only signal to MPs on the left of the party that she is reaching out, but also to split MPs tempted to join efforts to bring Sunak in. With Hunt now in a senior role – and leading on fiscal policy – some of these MPs may pause for thought, even if it’s simply to give Hunt enough time to establish himself as a prime contender to be caretaker prime minister.
As for the right of the party, the thinking is that they don’t have many options right now. “Where do the right go? Suella?” asks one Truss ally, suggesting it is unlikely they would unite behind the home secretary. Sober MPs argue now is not the time for another gamble.
It’s why, as ever, the plan to oust Truss runs into problems as soon as MPs start to map out the alternatives. Most agree it would have to be a coronation whereby MPs would change the leadership rules to allow a challenge, then pick a candidate, rather than allowing the grassroots to have the final say. But the idea of skipping the membership is enough to make some MPs queasy. The defence secretary, Ben Wallace, has been floated as a candidate who could unite both the left and right, but even he has internal critics.
Sunak is being talked up by MPs as the best solution for the crisis, given he would be well placed to win back market confidence. “He is the only candidate who would save people 1% on their mortgages,” says a senior Tory. “That’s worth a lot right now.”
Yet Johnson loyalists will fight efforts to install Sunak, given many still blame him for Johnson’s downfall. Look how Nadine Dorries has warned that changing leader again would mean a general election.
It’s the fear of a general election that is focusing minds. Few believe the party will win a fifth term – whoever leads them. Instead, the aim is to limit losses; to make sure the party’s defeat is not one that puts it out of power for a generation or more.
And while it remains very unlikely that Tory MPs would vote for an election, there is a worry that the public mood could turn towards one unless things stabilise. A Tory strategist warns that the window is narrowing when it comes to the public mood: “There is a risk the public see the turmoil and turn in favour of one.”
“The more chaotic and mad it is, the more likely we head to election territory,” says a party old hand. “This is why something has to happen soon.”
Whether it’s Hunt surprising on Monday and bringing calm to the government or Truss being shown the door, the current situation is unsustainable. MPs know something has to give.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
