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Fortune
Fortune
Peter Vanham, Nicholas Gordon

Israel war could cause a recession, $150 oil, and a 20% stock drop

(Credit: Aris Messinis—AFP via Getty Images)

Good morning, Peter Vanham here in Geneva.

The Israel-Hamas war has deeply divided societies around the world, including many companies and institutions. But as the Israeli offensive in Gaza intensifies, companies will have to shift gears from talking about the conflict and its impact on employees to dealing with its economic ramifications.   

Those could be so severe that they could plunge the world back into a recession, cause oil prices to surge to $150, and depress stock prices by some 20%, EY-Parthenon’s chief economist Gregory Daco told me. Even companies that have no business in the Middle East would then be caught in its economic fallout.

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