Title: Washington's Leverage and Israel's Elusive Military Objectives in the Israeli-Hamas Conflict
In the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is engaging in talks in Istanbul to prevent the escalation of the conflict. Blinken is meeting with Turkey's foreign minister and is also slated to meet with President Erdogan. This visit marks the beginning of a regional tour, which will include stops in Israel and the West Bank, in an effort to de-escalate tensions. Additionally, the U.S. plans to communicate through back channels with Iran, emphasizing the desire to prevent the conflict from spiraling further.
Regarding the U.S. involvement, concerns have been raised about whether Israel is dragging the U.S. into another war. According to Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, there is a growing concern that Israel may seek a confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Although the Biden administration reportedly halted these plans, tensions are mounting, potentially igniting a broader conflict in the Middle East, and potentially entangling the U.S. as well.
Despite the fact that the U.S. has supplied 10,000 tons of weapons to Israel, expedited through channels without congressional oversight, and vetoed UN resolutions calling for a ceasefire, Parsi argues that the U.S. lacks the leverage necessary to compel Israel to put an end to the fighting. However, Parsi also notes that the U.S. possesses significant leverage, as an Israeli major general admitted that cutting off U.S. arms transfers and ammunition would force Israel to cease the hostilities.
Secretary Blinken's Middle East visit is aimed at managing the increasingly strained relationships with regional Arab states, who are deeply concerned about the situation in Gaza and the potential for escalation. However, Parsi suggests that this approach may not be sustainable in the long run, especially considering the simmering anger among Arab populations. If the Biden administration's primary objective is to prevent a regional war that could draw in the U.S., Parsi argues that leveraging that influence and pressuring Israel to end the fighting in Gaza would be the most effective approach.
Moreover, Parsi draws comparisons to former U.S. President Reagan's utilization of leverage through restrictions on arms transfers to pressure Israel to halt its bombardment of Lebanon. The key difference today, Parsi asserts, is the political unwillingness of the Biden administration to use the leverage at its disposal for undisclosed calculations. However, Parsi emphasizes that having leverage does not equate to using it, and highlights the necessity for the U.S. to prevent the conflict from escalating further and inflicting additional humanitarian costs.
Israel's military objective to eliminate Hamas seems elusive, as noted by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. After weeks of warfare, little progress has been made towards achieving that objective, while the humanitarian toll continues to soar. Parsi points to the United States' experience in Afghanistan, where after two decades of war, the Taliban is back in power. This draws attention to the importance of conveying this lesson to Israel, urging caution to prevent further damage to both Israel and the region as a whole.
As Secretary Blinken continues his diplomatic efforts, the region eagerly awaits the outcome, hoping for a resolution that will bring stability and prevent the further escalation of violence.
