In an alarming turn of events, just as Israel revealed its plan to withdraw thousands of troops from northern Gaza for the next phase of its ongoing war, the senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri was killed in a targeted assassination in Beirut. While Israel did not claim responsibility, Hezbollah held it directly accountable for the killing. The incident marks a significant escalation, as it represents Israel’s deepest incursion into Lebanese territory since 8 October and its most significant attack since July 2006. Moreover, it breaches established red lines and rules of engagement by expanding the war theatre to Beirut, disregarding a warning issued by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in August, when he cautioned Israel against engaging in assassinations on Lebanese soil.
Historically, Hezbollah has preferred to gradually build up its military capabilities over the long term rather than immediately responding to attacks in kind. But the current war, and this recent act of escalation, will compel the movement to act swiftly to deter further Israeli aggression. In its eyes, a clear response will be the only way to restore equilibrium.
