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The Conversation
The Conversation
Vanessa Newby, Assistant Professor, Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal promises a precarious peace in a region racked by conflict

After two months of ground war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, a negotiated ceasefire has been reached which for now should help to relieve civilian suffering. However, much will depend on both local and global politics.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has raged since October 1. In that time, more than 3,768 Lebanese civilians have reportedly been killed and 15,699 wounded. On the Israeli side, 44 soldiers and 48 civilians were reportedly killed in what was the sixth Israeli incursion into Lebanon in 50 years.

The new ceasefire agreement superficially resembles the previous arrangements in southern Lebanon. It includes a commitment to UN security council resolution 1701 (which in 2006 called for an end to hostilities, withdrawal of Israeli and Hezbollah forces from the region, and the disarmament of Hezbollah), as well as the continued presence of UN peacekeepers and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in southern Lebanon.

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