When Russia invaded Ukraine last week, it was the consequence of a decades-long grievance held by Vladimir Putin.
For a man who has long pined over the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Russian President now appears to be attempting to rewrite its very history.
Mr Putin wants to rectify what he sees as the blunders of former Communist leaders and redefine Russia's post-Soviet era borders.
In pursuit of this goal, he is attempting to coerce post-Soviet neighbours back into Russia's sphere of influence and away from the loving embrace of the West.
Russian forces have now besieged Ukraine as they continue their onward march from three separate fronts, albeit slowed down by a defiant population unwilling to give up without a fight.
What is clear now is that Mr Putin's pursuit of such a goal has come with incredible risk, perhaps on a scale not even realised by himself.
Ukraine was not a simple victory, and instead Russia is now engaged in what could be a prolonged war it may not have been fully prepared for.
Unprecedented and wide-reaching sanctions have put the economic future of his country at risk and sparked tensions at home.
And the West is now more unified than ever against Russia, itself on high alert for further escalation.
It has left many to ponder a single question — what is the long-term strategy of Mr Putin?
While we may never know what is going on in his mind, several analysts suggest the actions of the last week could provide clues into how the war may unfold.
Putin's 'high risk, high pay-off' gamble fails
The first phase of Russia's offensive was designed to make the Ukrainians collapse and ultimately its forces failed in their objective, according to Mark F Cancian, senior international security adviser for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"Within the first couple of days, they initiated this shock and awe campaign with missiles and aircraft attacking air bases and headquarters," he told the ABC.
"Then they launched attacks along three axes — north, north-east and south — and they pushed columns ahead with the idea that they would get to the city centres before the Ukrainian defences could coalesce."
Mr Cancian said Mr Putin was pursuing a "high risk, high pay-off gamble," given the relatively small number of troops Russia had at hand to invade such a large country.
It's likely the Russian President wanted to clinch a victory in the "first three or four days" before Western sanctions could take hold in Russia — and perhaps even before the Russian people realised they were in a war.
But eight years after the annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainians were better prepared for invasion. When the attack came, they assembled their defences, called their men and women to arms and were soon putting the Russians through their paces.
With no way to go back and the path forward blocked by a small yet determined force of unwavering Ukrainians, there are now a limited number of likely scenarios facing the Russian leader.
Whatever option Mr Putin chooses could determine whether Russia's incursion into Ukraine was a strategic blunder or a calculated victory in the eyes of the Kremlin.
A 'massive application of firepower'
Mr Putin has seemingly committed himself fully to war with Ukraine, and there is a strong possibility of a long war of attrition if he sticks to his current strategy.
But one option Mr Putin may pursue is a Russian doctrine of cold calculation.
"The Russians have a lot of artillery, a lot of missiles, and the notion is that when they meet resistance, they hammer it with shells [and] missiles," Mr Cancian says.
The pursuit of this "second phase" would involve a "massive application of firepower" as well as a scaling up of Russian troops.
The escalation would likely result in a devastating death toll for Ukraine.
"I'm quite concerned that we're going to see a lot of civilian casualties in this second phase," he said.
It appears as if such a strategy may already be underway, with Russian forces having stepped up their assaults on urban areas in recent days.
There has been heavy shelling of the country's second-largest city, Kharkiv, and the strategic seaports of Kherson and Mariupol in what experts say is a sign of a "redoubling" of Russia's military efforts.
"I fear it's going to become much more brutal, much harsher. And I guess what we're all watching is what's going to happen around here," said Tracey German, an expert on Russian foreign and security policies from King's College.
Such an attack could be designed to first terrorise the civilian population and then lead to the overthrow of the government.
But with such fierce resistance being mounted by the Ukrainian military and the broader population, it would be difficult to keep the country under Russian control.
Putin's ambitions rest on Kyiv
Russia's initial goal was to take over all of Ukraine, decapitate the government, and replace it with one more aligned with Russia, according to Mr Cancian.
While Mr Putin has claimed his "special military operation" is "going according to plan", experts have suggested otherwise.
"Now that they're in an extended military campaign it'll be interesting to see whether they just focus on the eastern part of Ukraine, or whether they try to take over the whole country," he said.
The outcome may depend on how the invasion unfolds and the battle over Kyiv. Even then, Ms German said that may not be the end of the war.
Mr Putin has denied he is seeking to occupy Ukraine and has rejected accusations he was plotting to install a pro-Kremlin puppet.
Ms German believes the Russians have underestimated the strength of Ukraine's resistance and overestimated their own capabilities.
In the absence of the quick and decisive victory they may have hoped for, it is unclear exactly what a "victory" looks like in the eyes of Mr Putin and the Kremlin.
A possible ceasefire with Russian demands
If Russia is unable to take control of Ukraine, but succeeds in seizing some areas, it may also attempt to pursue a deal.
One suggestion is that Mr Putin could offer to trade the territory he's taken in favour of some long-held goals — recognition of Russian rule over Crimea, neutral status for Ukraine and a repudiation of NATO membership, according to the New York Times.
Another plausible option could be that Ukraine accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. In turn, Mr Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe, according to BBC reporter James Landale.
Already observers have viewed Mr Putin's agreement to send a delegation to peace talks as a sign that he has not completely ruled out the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire.
But so far the list of Moscow's demands indicate an agreement may prove impossible.
It is unclear, for example, how Ukraine could go about the process of "de-Nazification", included in the Kremlin's requests.
Russian military has repeatedly sought to portray Ukraine as being aligned with Nazism without any evidence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself is Jewish.
Ultimately, however, that set of requests may change if Russia's war with its neighbour drags on.
"Bottom line, the Russians wanted to take over the entire country, [but] they might have to compromise on something less depending on the resistance," Mr Cancian said.
The stakes are certainly high for Russia's leader. If he doesn't secure a decisive win quickly, Mr Putin risks losing not just the support of his people, but Russia's military and its political elite.
Could this war backfire against Putin?
Isolated from the rest of the world, Russians from all walks of life are now grappling with the prospect of higher prices, banking woes, and restricted foreign travel.
And as the West moves to restrict Russia's use of its massive foreign currency reserves, the screws are tightening on Putin's leadership.
Leading Russian figures have already signed an open letter against the war. Celebrities have publicly denounced the invasion. And protests have taken place across the country.
While it may be some time before the full effects of the West's sanctions are felt, major companies are already pulling out of Russia and sports organisations have suspended Russian players.
These actions will no doubt be felt by ordinary Russians.
Opposition figures suggest a simmering resentment will continue to grow as the consequences of Mr Putin's war hit Russian hip pockets.
But Professor Tomila Lankina of the London School of Economics says it's difficult to say whether the sanctions have shifted public opinion of Mr Putin, given there has been a "very strong machinery of intimidation" and manipulation of public opinion.
"In a way, it's actually quite encouraging to see that despite this emasculation of the opposition leadership, we see hundreds of people taking to the streets. That's very significant," she said.
Professor Lankina believes public sentiment "isn't going to make any dent in terms of Putin's calculus of what to do and what not to do". Although it may signal danger ahead for Russia's inscrutable leader and his inner circle.
Mr Cancian says if the Russian military gets bogged down in a long war of attrition, there is a scenario where "Putin loses power in a way".
"The military steps in and says, ‘we can't continue this’, the protests get stronger, and there [is] an effort between the oligarchs and the military, and the political establishment that Putin has to go because he just can't continue like that," he said.
The internal division this war may sow in Russia could also have far-reaching implications for the country's distant future.
Some Russians are already signalling that the war is not being waged in their name and they are with the people of Ukraine, according to Professor Lankina.
It could be a sign that there is "a constituency for rebuilding a new Russia". One that is closer to a more democratic system.
