ANALYSIS — A secret of political handicapping is that how a district has voted in the past is a pretty good indicator of how it will vote in the future.
But while the most recent presidential election is typically a good measure of a House seat’s partisan performance, this month’s off-year election results showed that the 2020 presidential race might be a better baseline to evaluate what might happen in 2026.
Even though 2020 was a half-decade ago, there are similarities to the present time. Donald Trump is back in the White House, and his job approval rating is mediocre. And under those conditions, House Democrats are better positioned to win the majority in the midterm elections.
