The rupee’s steep slide to the 79-to-a-dollar range is bound to impact importers, widen the current account deficit (CAD) and increase the value of India’s external debt burden. But how much of a problem is this going to be for the Indian economy, given that the rest of the world is facing economic challenges as well? Zico Dasgupta and Indranil Pan discuss whether the declining rupee presents a crisis or an opportunity, in a conversation moderated by Bharat Kumar K. Edited excerpts:
The declining rupee has several consequences. In sum, is it a crisis or an opportunity?
Zico Dasgupta: This is a matter of concern because the question of opportunity arises when one talks about the positive impact of the declining rupee on trade balance and net exports. That seems to be limited for two reasons. First, despite depreciation in the nominal exchange rate, the real exchange rate has not really depreciated in recent times and that is what matters for questions of trade balance and exports. Second, in the last two-three decades, the sensitivity of exports has been weak as far as changes in the real exchange rate is concerned. The depreciation is concerning — not exactly on the lines of the instability we have seen in Sri Lanka or other developing countries, but because it adds to the inflationary pressure and squeezes the purchasing power of those whose incomes are not linked to the crisis.
