Just one month after Sergio Perez secured a two-year contract extension with Red Bull, his Formula 1 future seems to be unravelling.
Performance clauses are putting Perez at risk of losing his seat in a near future, as the grid becomes more and more competitive.
The Mexican has scored just 11 points in the four grands prix since his new deal was announced – fewer than Haas's Nico Hulkenberg or Aston Martin's Lance Stroll and far behind Max Verstappen's tally of 86. What's more, he is yet to outqualify his team-mate this season.
While Red Bull previously could afford for Perez to lag behind Verstappen, that is no longer the case with McLaren and Mercedes catching up in the constructors' championship. The Milton Keynes-based outfit currently deems its driver's form "unsustainable" and is reconsidering his position.
Key to Perez's odds might be a seemingly innocuous filming day which Red Bull ran this week at Silverstone with arguably its hottest young prospect, Liam Lawson, in the car.
Although the team had to use demonstration tyres, Lawson was allowed to drive the RB20 over a maximum of 200km, which corresponds to 33 laps of the Silverstone grand prix layout.
This gives the team an opportunity to assess his ability, as it did with Daniel Ricciardo in more favourable circumstances a year ago – it was then a Pirelli test, so mileage was not limited and tyre compounds were in line with what might be used on a grand prix weekend.
Ricciardo and Tsunoda are failing to make an impact
It might seem surprising that Lawson is viewed as a credible candidate for a Red Bull seat after he was overlooked for an RB drive this year, with Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda retaining their positions.
Red Bull was hoping that one of them would show their credentials by clearly gaining the upper hand over the other, but it hasn't happened so far – although Tsunoda has the advantage, having scored 20 points to Ricciardo's 11 (but only 13 to 11 since the Australian got a new chassis in China) and leading 10-5 in their qualifying head-to-head.
Red Bull is therefore turning its attention to Lawson. The 22-year-old New Zealander has enjoyed success at every level, with his early achievements comprising a runner-up spot in ADAC F4 ahead of Enzo Fittipaldi and Frederik Vesti, Toyota Racing Series championship from Marcus Armstrong, and second in Euroformula Open in a field which included Yuki Tsunoda.
Lawson went on to take fifth place in Formula 3, just 21 points behind champion Oscar Piastri, then narrowly beat Logan Sargeant to third position in the 2022 Formula 2 season, while only just missing out on the DTM and Super Formula titles in 2021 and 2023 respectively – showing his versatility to be a key asset.
However, if anything made Lawson's potential crystal-clear, it was his five-round stint standing in for Ricciardo at AlphaTauri when the veteran suffered a metacarpal fracture in free practice at the 2023 Dutch Grand Prix. The rookie wasn't out of his depth compared to team-mate Tsunoda in qualifying and had a remarkable showing in Singapore, where he reached Q3 and achieved the team's best result of the year until that point by finishing ninth in the race.
Since then, Lawson has been biding his time and focusing on his role as Red Bull and RB's reserve driver – which involves crucial set-up work on the simulator in Milton Keynes, as many young drivers performed for the team in the past before graduating to F1.
Stepping away from any kind of racing is never easy for a driver, but pressure has been increasing on Ricciardo. The Australian being replaced by Lawson as early as the summer break is plausible.
"The goal was that [Ricciardo] would be considered for Red Bull Racing with exceptional performances," Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko told Austrian newspaper Kleine Zeitung two weeks ago. "That seat now belongs to Sergio Perez, so that plan is no longer valid.
"We have to put a young driver in there soon. That would be Liam Lawson."
Lawson could then be evaluated with a view to fast-track him to the mother team in 2025. Or, Red Bull will perhaps pick him to replace Perez even earlier, which cannot be ruled out at this stage.
The New Zealander has admittedly not proven to be a once-in-a-generation talent yet, but his potential is plain to see and he has become a relatively safe pair of hands, having not retired in any of his latest 20 races, taking place in F2 and Super Formula.
Whether Lawson definitely is the best candidate for that Red Bull seat remains to be seen, but what is certain is the Milton Keynes squad will leave no stone unturned when it comes to assessing his skills.
