James Cameron doesn’t make small movies. That’s part of his brand. But with the recently released Avatar: Fire and Ash nearing the end of its theatrical run, at $1.4 billion globally, some industry observers are starting to ask: Is Pandora losing altitude? As we head full steam into the third month of the 2026 movie schedule, it's worth looking into whether or not it's time to 'pump the brakes' on more Avatar flicks.
According to a recent Variety report, the third Avatar installment will finish well below the "two metric f---tons" of money the director was aiming for, the staggering $2.9 billion earned by 2009’s Avatar and the $2.3 billion hauled in by 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water. While $1.4 billion would be a career-defining hit for most filmmakers, it’s a more complicated story here, given that the film stacks up with some of the most expensive movies ever made. Disney reportedly spent around $500 million to produce and market the threequel. As Wedbush Securities analyst Alicia Reese put it bluntly:
There’s a massive built-in fanbase. However, there wasn’t anything spectacularly different from the technology or storyline. If you saw the second and were pleased, you may have gone to see the third. But you might have heard from others that it wasn’t as necessary.
Disney, of course, has already committed to two more sequels, slated for 2029 and 2031. But analysts suggest the studio may be rethinking how much it’s willing to spend. As Stephen Galloway, dean of Chapman University’s film school, explained it:
I imagine Disney is doing a lot to put the brakes on budgets — and that may eventually lead to a breaking point. James Cameron makes expensive films.
From Terminator 2 to Titanic to every Avatar installment, Cameron has built a career on pushing budgets to historic highs. He’s also built a reputation for turning those risks into box office gold. He remains the only director with four consecutive billion-dollar hits, three of which crossed $2 billion.
But many viewers and critics alike felt that the third film was less essential. The original Avatar films dominated the box office for seven consecutive weekends. Fire and Ash relinquished its top spot after five. Some critics and analysts have also noted that the technological leap forward, once the franchise’s defining feature, didn’t feel as dramatic this time around.
There’s also the release timing. Unlike the 13-year gap between the first two films, Fire and Ash arrived three years after The Way of Water. That shorter window may have reduced the sense of event-level anticipation.
Still, Reese doesn’t think Cameron should be underestimated. The analyst added:
If Cameron can build upon the story, the fourth is going to be spectacular. And he is certainly capable of this. Look at ‘Titanic.’ Look at ‘Terminator.’
If history tells us anything, it’s that betting against James Cameron rarely works out. That said, with budgets climbing and returns dipping, Disney may be looking more closely at the math this time around. Pandora isn’t in crisis, but the pressure to justify another half-billion-dollar investment is very real.
It’s also important to remember that Avatar: Fire and Ash wasn’t just a box office player. The film earned a 2026 Academy Award nomination for Visual Effects and a nod for Costume Design. As we recently noted, Deborah L. Scott’s work combined traditional design techniques with advanced digital craftsmanship, reinforcing how the franchise continues to redefine large-scale filmmaking. So, even if it brought in less money, the Avatar series still carries prestige, which will undoubtedly be a factor in whether more movies are greenlit.
For now, Avatar: Fire and Ash remains in theaters and is expected to hit VOD sometime in March or April. Whether a fourth film moves forward remains to be seen. In the meantime, fans can revisit the first two chapters with their Disney+ subscription.
