Is Ceviche at Risk due to El Niño? Lime Farming in Northern Peru Could Face a Threefold Impact

Peruvian Chef Roberto Madrid prepares a traditional sea bass ceviche at his restaurant Aroma de Mar (Aroma of the Sea) in Lima on December 4, 2023. Peru's flagship delicacy dish of ceviche (also cebiche) was inscribed as intangible global heritage by UNESCO on December 6, 2023. People in each region use different ingredients to accompany the dish giving it its own local identity. In 2004, Peru declared ceviche as a National Cultural Heritage being the only country where it is recognized in this way. Currently, in Peru more than 40 million plates of ceviche are consumed per month, according to official figures. (Credit: Photo by Cris BOURONCLE / AFP) (Photo by CRIS BOURONCLE/AFP via Getty Images)

The Briefing

• A coastal El Niño is actively disrupting lemon-tree flowering cycles across Piura, Peru's dominant growing region — but the price shock won't reach consumers until the first half of 2027.
• In August 2017, a comparable El Niño-driven shortage drove a confirmed 133% lemon price surge, added 0.44 percentage points to Lima's consumer price index, and forced Peru's ceviche restaurants to absorb losses rather than pass costs to diners.
• Peru's central bank president has flagged lemon as the agricultural commodity most at risk in 2026–2027, with the sharpest damage expected in early 2027, once this season's disrupted harvest reaches market.