Irish voters have been casting their ballots in a general election in which the incumbent taoiseach, Simon Harris, is under pressure from the resurgent leftwing nationalist party Sinn Féin, the former political wing of the IRA, led by Mary Lou McDonald.
Counting in Friday’s ballot will not begin until 9am on Saturday, with close-to-final results expected by the end of Sunday.
The long count is a result of the transferable vote system which allows the electorate to rank their favourite candidates and provides proportional representation in the Dáil.
An exit poll commissioned by RTÉ, the Irish Times, the Irish language channel TG4 and Trinity College Dublin will give an indication of the first preference votes at 10pm on Friday with the release of second preference votes 20 minutes later.
Tallies by the parties, which operate a parallel informal counting operation in all 43 constituencies, are expected to reveal their projections of the election results at around lunchtime on Saturday.
Unless there is an outright majority for one party, which is highly improbable, it could be weeks before a government is formed as parties negotiate and horse-trade over the makeup of a new coalition government.
Opinion polls show a dead heat, with the two main parties in the current centre-right governing coalition – Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, led by the former prime minister Micheál Martin – plus Sinn Féin, all hovering at about 20% of the vote.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have refused to go into government with Sinn Féin because of its historic links to the IRA during Northern Ireland’s Troubles.
A surge in popularity for independent candidates is expected, partly because so many Fine Gael candidates are new – 18 of the 33 outgoing Teachta Dálas (TDs) did not stand for re-election. Others are hoping to make electoral gains on the back of anti-immigration policies. But an Irish Times poll earlier this week showed the status quo was most popular.
It found that the country’s preference was a second term for a partnership between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – with or without their third partner, the Green party.
The partnership took four months to form after the last election in 2020, when Sinn Féin celebrated its best ever general election, securing 37 seats in the Dáil, one behind Fianna Fáil and two more than Fine Gael.
When casting their votes, the leaders predicted a close call. Harris said he expected a “fascinating couple of days” with the count.
He said the makeup and stability of the next government could be decided by where transfer votes go. Fine Gael and Sinn Féin have asked voters to give their second preference vote to the same party or similar parties to swell their chances of leading a stable coalition.
The Dáil consists of 174 seats with around 88 needed for a clear majority. However, a coalition is more probable than a majority government, with no party expected to get more than 35-40 seats.
Fine Gael went into the polls with Harris battered by campaign slip-ups including an awkward encounter with a disability care worker.
Emphasis on the personality and energy of the taoiseach was a strategy deployed to help win party support where no recognisable candidate was running, with so many TDs standing down.
Meanwhile the leader of the Social Democrat party announced the birth of a baby daughter on the day of the election.
Holly Cairns, who is standing for re-election in the Cork South-West constituency, posted on Instagram: “She’s here. We are completely in love with her.”
One of her followers responded: “What a day to land. Her timing is incredible.” And said: “Polling day baby. Is she getting Polly as a middle name?”
The Social Democrats are one of the smallest parties in the Dáil with six seats.
