If New Zealand couldn’t manage to beat Ireland in Dublin two months ago, it seems fair to suggest Wales will head into the Six Nations opener at the Aviva Stadium a week on Saturday as serious underdogs.
The All Blacks, after all, defeated Wayne Pivac’s team 54-16 in the autumn.
Two weeks later the Kiwis came unstuck 29-20 against Ireland in a match that saw them thoroughly outplayed.
There's more, a lot more.
Since the autumn Tests, the Welsh regions, beset by injuries and Covid-related issues, have hit an horrendous patch, with not one of them registering an on-pitch success in Europe. Ospreys and Scarlets finished the Heineken Champions Cup with a combined points difference of -184, the Dragons have one just bonus point in the second tier Challenge Cup and Cardiff lost three in the top-tier event before being handed maximum points after Toulouse were forced to forfeit.
Meantime, the Irish provinces have been hitting their straps.
Leinster, Ulster, Munster and Connacht are all in the last 16 of the Champions Cup, with the first three unbeaten on the pitch in the competition this season. Leinster have scored 23 tries in their last two games.
If that's not enough to make Pivac wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat, Wales also have injuries, many of them, with the likes of Justin Tipuric, Alun Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Taulupe Faletau, George North, Josh Navidi and Leigh Halfpenny all ruled out.
The contrasting fortunes between the regions and the provinces underline the scale of the challenge facing Wayne Pivac’s side when they take the field in the Irish capital on February 5.
Further highlighting the task facing the team led by Dan Biggar, the SportsJOE website has published the Ireland side they believe Andy Farrell will pick for next week’s game.
It runs thus: Hugo Keenan; Andrew Conway, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Jordan Larmour; Johnny Sexton, James Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Ronan Kelleher, Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan.
The predicted replacements are Dan Sheehan, Cian Healey, Finlay Bealham, Iain Henderson, Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Jack Carty, Garry Ringrose.
To say it is just powerful is to deal in understatement.
Such are the suggested back-row riches that O’Mahony — a player who “needs to be mentioned in the same breath as some of the greats,” said Will Greenwood earlier this season — may have to be confined to a place on the bench, with fellow Lions Iain Henderson, Conor Murray and Cian Healey potentially in line to join him.
There’s pace in the back three and power and solidity in the centre, with Johnny Sexton bossing matters at fly-half,
The pack barely contains a weakness, from Porter at No. 1 to Conan at No. 8.
A glimmer of hope for Wales is that they have managed to compete and then a bit more over the years despite the issues at regional level.
But this season the odds will be firmly against them, starting with the game against their Celtic cousins first up. Indeed, the bookies have already written them off.
Winning that match would be some achievement, indeed.
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