Do not adjust your sets. What you’re seeing is indeed real. It may feel like the world has been turned upside down, but this moment has been coming for a while. Ireland are firm favourites for a Rugby World Cup quarter-final against the All Blacks.
Even a few short years ago it would have been unthinkable, yet now it’s not only fully justified but almost unremarkable. Based on all evidence from this World Cup cycle, your reaction upon hearing the news is probably “Yeah, that sounds about right,” accompanied by a shoulder shrug.
Only when taking a step back does the magnitude of how much the tectonic plates of power have shifted become apparent. Imagine telling someone in 2015 – a mere eight years ago – that Ireland were favoured to beat New Zealand in the last-eight stage of rugby’s global showpiece.
The All Blacks had just come off a second consecutive World Cup title (their third in total) and Ireland’s record against them in the entire history of the fixture since it was first played in 1905 read: 0 wins, 1 draw, 27 defeats.
Even now, Ireland have never won a World Cup knockout game in eight attempts. Seven quarter-finals (and one quarter-final play-off): all losses. Meanwhile, New Zealand have reached the quarter-final stage of every single World Cup since its inception and lost just one.
In the 359 matches played since they started offering odds back in 1996, the All Blacks have been underdogs with TAB NZ – New Zealand’s sole betting agency – in just five games, all away to South Africa. Saturday evening in Paris will be the sixth such match.
In other betting markets around the world, they may have been second-favourites on a couple of other occasions, including the opening-night defeat to France at this World Cup, but the wider point still stands – the mantle of underdog is not one the ‘mighty’ All Blacks wear comfortably. It’s a status reserved for teams such as Ireland. Or at least it used to be. Now the men in black must get accustomed to it.
New Zealand have proven to be fallible in recent times— (Getty)
“As a player it is not a biggie for us, none of the boys are on the TAB or Bet365 punting,” insisted fly half Richie Mo’unga ahead of the game. “So, that’s not a biggie. It’s not a biggie for us.
“You can’t shy away from the fact how great this Ireland team is, what they’ve done the last couple of years. The numbers don’t lie, they are the best team in the world. It’s obviously not what I want to be saying in front of you all today. But those are the facts.
"But the beauty is we have the opportunity on Saturday to play them. That’s just the real, exciting thing about this week, there’s no more lives, no more chances. The playing fields are equal when we get out on the pitch. Who’s prepared the best, put in the most work and who’s had those conversations about small details around strategy and whatnot at the lineout or scrum. It will all show on Saturday.”
As Mo’unga states, Ireland have cemented themselves as the best team in the world – a side on a 17-Test winning streak, a ruthless, efficient rugby machine honed under Andy Farrell to complete a steady, 30-year transformation. The journey hasn’t always been smooth, but the plucky yet limited side of the 1990s turned into the more competitive outfit with a smattering of world-class stars of the 2000s. That became a more complete team capable of winning Six Nations titles and grand slams as the calendar flipped to the 2010s before Joe Schmidt took them up another notch to become genuinely elite. Yet that knockout match hoodoo has always remained.
In 2019, Ireland entered the World Cup as the official No 1 team in the world rankings but lost to Japan in the group stage and then faced those All Blacks in the quarter-finals, where they were unceremoniously thumped 46-14 in Chofu.
Ireland were humbled at the 2019 World Cup by New Zealand— (PA)
The quarter-final is the most immovable hurdle for Irish men’s rugby to overcome but they finally appear to have a group unburdened by the weight of history and, not just ready, but expecting to take that next step.
“We have worked on our mental game for the last four years and put ourselves in different scenarios to prepare for this,” explained captain Johnny Sexton. “I don’t think we are carrying much baggage. It is a one-off game and we have got to prepare for now.”
And even a one-off game against the most dominant nation in men’s rugby history, perhaps the most storied team in all of sport no longer holds any fear for this Ireland side, who have won three of four contests between the sides over the past four years, including a historic series victory in New Zealand.
“When I started my international career, playing New Zealand was really daunting. But did we really expect to beat them? That’s questionable,” admitted 34-year-old scrum half Conor Murray.
“Whereas now there is definitely a bit more belief, with the understanding of how good they are and how hard it is to beat them. But there is definitely a respect there on both sides.”
On Saturday evening at the Stade de France, both Ireland and the All Blacks will put their mutual respect aside for 80 minutes and be cast in unfamiliar roles but ones that might just become the new normal.
