Mizoram still counts its votes even as at least three of the four other states which recently held assembly elections have thrown out their governments. And it’s not just anti-incumbency that has defined the change, as the mandate in Madhya Pradesh has spelt out.
While poll pundits look at the various factors behind the BJP’s thumping victory and the Congress’s defeat in the Hindi heartland, some newspaper editorials observed that it might be because the BJP is better equipped both as a challenger and the incumbent.
Let’s take a look at what the prominent English papers said.
In an editorial headlined “decisive wins”, The Hindu wrote that a “remarkable revival in Telangana that pushed the BJP to the third place was the only consolation for the Congress. The BJP’s victories signify a consolidation of its hold over the Hindi heartland and in straight contests against its principal national opponent”
“True, the Congress’s consolation prize in Telangana is remarkable, beating back a regional party that had sought to become synonymous with the struggle for Statehood. But to regain support in the Hindi-speaking States in time for the Lok Sabha election next year seems an uphill struggle for the party. The overall electoral map now suggests a divergence between the BJP strongholds in the north and the west, and peninsular India where non-BJP parties are in power.”
The BJP campaign had pivoted around Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the paper noted, adding that this “was a highly risky strategy, considering the party’s defeat in Karnataka in May after it antagonised regional satraps and caste groups”.
“All three heartland States have exposed many a chink in the Congress armour, particularly its two prongs of social justice and welfare schemes,” it said. “The BJP’s Hindutva politics continued to resonate better across caste groups in the heartland. The BJP’s campaigning was laced with communal propaganda, and had a more effective outreach to subaltern segments. Caste politics as a counter to communalism is hardly inspiring.”
The Hindu noted that the Congress and party leader Rahul Gandhi “must go back to the drawing board before resuming their long yatra with greater ideological clarity”.
Meanwhile, in an editorial headlined “double engine, triple victory”, The Indian Express wrote that the results “underline, quite simply, that both when the BJP is the incumbent and when it is the challenger, it is more equipped and able to win the people’s trust than its main rival, the Congress. They show, also, that the appeal and popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi now reaches into the states and papers over the wear-and-tear in state units of the BJP. A four-term BJP government has returned to power in Madhya Pradesh with a staggering margin, after the party high command had taken over the reins of the campaign and shifted the spotlight away from Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. In Rajasthan, too, the BJP relegated its most prominent state leader, kept Modi at the centre, and won handsomely. A similar story played out in Chhattisgarh.”
It noted that the “narrowing of distance between the central and state arenas, and Modi’s ability to enter the state election as a leading player and swing it, seem to be the striking takeaways of this round of polls. But they may only reflect the rising to the surface of deeper and longer political shifts.” It said the results are “not just due to the success of the BJP, but also because of Congress failure. The Congress lacked a coherent campaign in the two states it lost, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and in the third, MP, that it failed to win – its campaign was as good or as bad as its individual candidates. This was not because of a considered strategy to go local, but more, because there was no strategy to begin with.”
“This diminished and diminishing Congress must now face the formidable challenge of reviving the momentum, interrupted by this round of polls, of INDIA — the Opposition’s joint anti-BJP front — in the Lok Sabha polls, only months away.”
The Deccan Herald too noted that the results show the “enduring appeal” of Modi. “The credit should also go to the party for formulating and implementing a strategy that suited each state. It has never lacked in organisational strength and resources. In Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the party came far from behind, and in Madhya Pradesh, it beat what even a few months ago seemed a strong anti-incumbency sentiment.”
“The results are likely to have an impact on the Opposition I.N.D.I.A alliance. The Congress had hoped to be the driver and leader of the alliance, but its decimation in the North will raise questions about its ability to lead. Its strong points are its presence in all states and a visible national leadership, but partners have seen it as a weak link too. It should also be seen if the I.N.D.I.A grouping will remain the same. These elections have divided the country into a North dominated by the BJP and a South dominated by non-BJP parties. These factors will have an impact on the plans for the 2024 elections.”
The Hindustan Times, meanwhile, observed that the elections “set the context for next year’s national election” in three ways. “One, the issues that matter. Two, the relative position of weakness from which the Congress will now have to negotiate with its partners in the INDIA bloc of opposition parties. And three, the method behind the Bharatiya Janata Party’s ability to combat not just anti-incumbency (a voter-side problem) but the more dangerous: fatigue (a party worker-side problem).”
It pointed out that “corruption may have played a part in felling the Congress’ Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, just as it may have the party’s Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi’s K Chandrashekar Rao in Telangana (the Congress’ welfare guarantees, modelled after the ones in Karnataka that enabled it wrest power from the BJP in that state, may have helped too). And the jury is still out on whether the Congress’ promise of a caste survey to wrest Other Backward Classes (OBC) votes from the BJP worked — it does not seem to have — even as the BJP’s performance in Chhattisgarh and the tribal belt of Madhya Pradesh indicates that the national political hegemon’s effort to grow its coalition by co-opting the tribal vote is beginning to work.”
“Leave alone the prospects of the INDIA grouping in 2024, these results cast a long shadow on the ability of its constituents to arrive at any sort of meaningful arrangement ahead of the national elections,” it noted, adding that the “South has enough strong regional parties capable of taking on the BJP; what was needed was a party that could take it on in the heartland; these results show that the Congress is not it”.
Meanwhile, the Telegraph pointed out that “it appears that a combination of factors has led to the lotus’s bloom in the region”. “The BJP would like to believe that the outcome of these elections is, in essence, an indicator of which way the political winds would blow in the general elections. It is possible that the party would march into the national elections by relying on its potent combination of welfareism — rewdis do deliver — and majoritarian triumphalism.”
With the heartland in its pocket, it would also have the confidence to not only raise its numbers in the Lok Sabha but also to reclaim lost land — especially in the South…The saffron parivar has reasons to be delighted with the heartland’s verdict. But political triumphs need not make it an undivided family.”
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