Autumn, it seems, will begin on Tuesday, with a set-piece speech by Keir Starmer. The sunny anthem that serenaded New Labour to power has been frostily remixed: “Things will get worse before we get better,” he will reportedly warn, while he serves notice of “tough choices” and “unpopular decisions”. To no one’s great surprise, he and Rachel Reeves will clearly be sticking to their promised parsimony. In the departments where Labour ministers are finding their feet, the only “reform” projects that have any chance of success will be those driven by savings. But as winter bites, they will face ever-louder calls for the opposite: money to fill deep gaps and repair 14 long years of damage.
One huge story embodies all this. At its heart are children and young people in England whose schooling and care fall under the category of special educational needs and disabilities, or Send. The system that is meant to help them is overseen by local councillors and public servants who often seem buried in failure, and unable to see a way out. As with so many of our national problems, much of the mess goes back to the Tory-Lib Dem coalition, and a story that Starmer, Reeves and their colleagues should bear in mind – about how imposing cuts not only ruins lives but soon results in the reverse of what was intended: costs go up, often uncontrollably.
