Forget the Republicans for a second. Even Democrats in the Red State of Kansas could not believe what came their way in a so-called referendum on abortion rights recently in the aftermath of the stunning, but expected, overturn of Roe vs Wade by the United States Supreme Court on June 24, 2022. Armed with a margin of 19 percentage points, the people of Kansas retained the right to abortion. This was also the same State where Donald Trump trounced Hillary Clinton by 20 points in 2016, and Joseph Biden by 15 points in 2020.
For Democrats, the news from Kansas was a relief of sorts, what with a troubled presidency with historic low approval ratings and an almost alarming rate of departures by White House staff. Traditionally, the party of the President suffers in the off-year mid-terms, but on November 8, there is expected to be some sort of a ‘killing’ this time round, with the Grand Old Party running amok in the House of Representatives and even edging Democrats out of their razor-thin majority in the Senate (where Republicans need only one seat in order to turn the tables).
‘Disrupting’ the social fabric
Even before the Kansas referendum, the U.S. Supreme Court helped Democrats define their political opposition. In the run-up to the 2020 elections, Democrats were labelled as a bunch of communists and socialists out on a culture war to re-define what America was all about. Some 18 months down the line, Democrats (in the aftermath of the Roe verdict) began painting Republicans as a group of narrow-minded radicals and extremists not satisfied with only taking away the rights of women on abortion but also keeping options open on the issues of same-sex marriage, gays and lesbians. The Republicans, in the view of Democrats, are out to tear the social fabric of America.
The overturning of Roe vs Wade and the outrage that followed has been reflected in opinion surveys as well. For instance in a poll by Monmouth University, 50% prefer Democrats to be in control of Congress as opposed to 43% in favour of Republicans. In May, Republicans had a four-point advantage over Democrats while in June the survey was evenly split at 47%. And some may argue that the slow turnaround for Democrats is taking place even with their man in the Oval Office posting only a 38% approval rating. Some polls have the numbers in the low 30s.
Points and subjects
There are a few things that need to be kept in mind before reading too much into the Kansas verdict, the first being “A week is a long time in politics”, a statement usually attributed to Harold Wilson in the 1960s. But Joseph Chamberlain had also remarked, in 1886, “In politics, there is no use in looking beyond the next fortnight.” Either way, the essence of the message is quite clear — that anything can happen between now and some 14 weeks down the line.
More importantly, the Kansas vote was over a single issue, while on November 8, voters will choose between individuals with a track record on multiple issues. Looking at different surveys, it is seen that even if voters prefer Republicans over Democrats, the response is different if the subject of abortion is included with or without restrictions. In Kansas, Republicans voted against the anti-abortion measures but still voted in the Republican primary. Favouring abortion rights is not an automatic vote for a particular candidate. Political strategists of both parties will have this in mind when checking boxes ahead of the actual polls.
In focus
Democrats will be keen to hammer away at abortion and other looming threats from a Republican majority in Congress. Some will even try to make an issue out of the Congressional hearings of the January 6, 2021 incidents where there was a scandalous turn of events during the Trump Presidency. The GOP will focus on the Biden Presidency, on issues such as gun control, crime, the economy including inflation and jobs, and pocket book issues such as the price of fuel at pumps.
Democrats may legitimately say that the economy is slowly beginning to look up especially on the jobs creation front, but the question still relevant is whether the Biden administration has effectively conveyed this. Democrats also see a turnaround in the fortunes of the party in terms of unity on big ticket issues such as climate change. But the ultimate challenge will be in pulling voters, especially white women from the urban and rural areas, to the booths on November 8.
If the latest action of state legislature in Indiana is anything to go by, where lawmakers approved a near total ban on abortion, the challenge before Democrats and President Joe Biden is not only the House of Representatives and Senate but also State Legislatures, Governors mansions, judicial positions and Attorneys General that are up for grabs. Often in the mad race to focus on the big picture there is the tendency to forget that “All politics is local”, to quote the former Speaker of the House, Tip O’Neil.
Sridhar Krishnaswami was a former senior journalist based in Washington for 14 years and covering North America and the United Nations. The views expressed are personal
