The global economy has withstood the Middle East war and the energy shock better than feared, but oil inventories are dwindling and government budgets are stretched, leaving the world with little room to absorb another big shock.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, that "the margins of adjustment are narrowing" as inventories deplete and debt and borrowing costs rise, leaving little room for error if another shock hits.
