The Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, has clarified that they have not forecasted another wave of COVID-19. It was an independent study done by a team of researchers from their Department of Mathematics and Statistics who have prepared a mathematical model and submitted the same to a pre-print server for experts to comment on. The same was not peer-reviewed, the Health Ministry submitted in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday.
Responding to a question by member Brijlal, Minister of State in Health Ministry Dr. Bharati Pravin Pawar said that modelling studies were based on certain set of inputs, either based on real world scenarios or approximations of those inputs that were not available (which may vary in accuracy according to the technique used). “Often these studies involve taking a relatively small actual sample and extrapolate the result to the entire population,” she explained.
While this may achieve near accurate results for a small homogenous country/region, such techniques had failed repeatedly to give reliable results for a large, diverse population, she noted.
