The exit polls are out. And if most pollsters are to be believed, it will be the BJP in Assam and West Bengal, the NDA in Puducherry, the DMK in Tamil Nadu, and the Congress-led UDF in Kerala.
However, two major pollsters, Axis My India and Today's Chanakya, have decided not to publish exit polls for the hotly contested West Bengal elections today. They are expected to release their West Bengal projections tomorrow evening. Axis My India has, however, published figures for Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, and Tamil Nadu, while Chanakya will release its full suite of polls for all states tomorrow.
Nonetheless, three out of five other polling agencies have predicted a BJP win in West Bengal. In the 294-member assembly, where 148 is the halfway mark, P-Marq predicts a narrow victory for the BJP with 150-175 seats, while the TMC is projected to bag 118-138. Matrize similarly gives the edge to the BJP with 146-161 seats.
Praja Poll has predicted an even bigger win for the BJP with 178-208 seats – a massive jump from its 77 seats in 2021 – while restricting the TMC to just 85-110 seats. On the other end of the spectrum, Peoples Pulse predicts a clean sweep for the Trinamool Congress with 177-187 seats, while Janmat Polls also states that the TMC will secure a thumping majority for the third straight time.
Before proceeding, it’s important to note that exit polls often get it wrong.
In Tamil Nadu, the Axis My India exit poll has made a stunning call, predicting actor Vijay's new party, TVK, could win 98-120 seats in its first elections with a 35 percent vote share. Meanwhile, the ruling DMK-led alliance is projected to secure 92-110 seats with a matching 35 percent vote share. Even winning 98 seats at the lowest band would make the TVK feat extraordinary, likely ushering in a new era in Tamil Nadu politics.
However, other projections for the 234-seat assembly vary wildly. While Peoples Pulse (125-145 seats), Peoples Insight (120-140 seats), and Praja Poll (148-168 seats) all forecast a strong showing for Chief Minister MK Stalin's party, JVC suggests an upset with the AIADMK and allies leading at 128-147 seats. Further highlighting the ‘Vijay factor’, Kamakhya Analytics places TVK as a potential kingmaker with 67-81 seats, while P-Marq offers a more conservative 16-26 seats for the actor's party.
In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to roar back to power. The Axis My India Exit Poll predicts a significant comeback for the UDF, unseating Pinarayi Vijayan's Left Democratic Front (LDF). The UDF is projected to win between 78 and 90 seats with a 44 percent vote share, while the LDF is expected to win 49-62 with a 39 percent vote share. The NDA is projected to secure between 0 and 3 seats in the 140-member Assembly with a 14 percent vote share.
P-MARQ also forecasts a UDF victory, albeit with a tighter margin, projecting 71–79 seats for the UDF and 60–69 seats for the LDF.
Along expected lines, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is predicted to retain power in Assam with a thumping majority. The Axis My India poll suggests the BJP-AGP-BPF combine will likely win between 88 and 100 seats with a 48 percent vote share. In comparison, the Congress-led alliance may be reduced to 24-36 seats with a 38 percent vote share. Other data mirrors this trend: JVC projects 88-101 seats for the NDA and 23-33 for the Congress, while Poll Diary places the NDA at 86-101. The Poll of Polls average places the NDA comfortably ahead at 87-101 seats.
In Puducherry, the NDA is expected to secure a second straight term with 16 to 25 seats with a 40 percent vote share. The Congress-led bloc is projected to win between six and 12 seats with a 30 percent vote share, while the Vijay-led TVK-NMK alliance is expected to win two to four seats with a 17 percent vote share, according to Axis My India.
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