Israel is laying siege to Gaza and is amassing forces for a ground invasion, as it inflicts brutal vengeance after Hamas militants broke through the border and launched the deadliest attack in Israeli history, killing more than 1,200 civilians and soldiers.
Gaza’s trapped and densely-packed 2.3 million inhabitants have suffered constant retaliatory air strikes since Saturday morning’s unprecedented attack, with more than 1,000 Palestinians killed and 5,000 injured.
Vowing to reduce Gaza to “a city of tents”, Israel has called up 300,000 reservists and claims to have “created an iron wall of tanks, helicopters and aircraft” around the enclave, pledging that “Gaza will never return to what it was”.
With an existing humanitarian crisis in Gaza now threatening to spiral into catastrophe as Israel shuts off electricity and already tight supplies of food and water, its inhabitants now face the prospect of the Israel Defence Forces unleashing the might of its significant firepower upon their towns and cities.
Here, The Independent speaks to experts about the Israel Defence Forces’ capabilities and how a ground invasion of Gaza could unfold.
How big is the Israeli military?
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has three branches: the Israeli Ground Forces, the Israeli Air Force, and the Israeli Navy. In 2021, the Israeli military spend was $24.34bn (£20bn).
Fixed-term military service has been compulsory for nearly all citizens over the age of 18 since the Israeli Declaration of Independence in 1948.
Israel is amassing troops near the Gaza border— (PA)
There are currently 173,000 active soldiers in the Israeli army, including 8,000 commanders. The military has also called up 300,000 reservists to prepare for its largest ever mobilisation, with special flights being organised to bring reservists from abroad to join its efforts.
Israel is also drawing on its special forces from the Sayeret Matkal unit to fight against Hamas, who it is expected will aim to neutralise high-ranking fighters and rescue captured Israelis.
In total, Israel has 15 active infantry brigades, each around 3,000 troops strong, plus another 22 brigades in reserve – which contrasts with just seven in the British Army, according to Dr Frank Ledwidge, a senior lecturer in military strategy at the University of Portsmouth.
While reservists would likely not be committed to frontline fighting, the mass of the Israeli army deployed to Gaza would be further divided by concerns of uprisings in the occupied West Bank, and “most importantly and formidably” of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is far stronger than Hamas, said Dr Ledwidge.
Israeli soldiers in Kfar Aza— (Bel Trew/The Independent)
What weaponry does the Israeli army have?
Israel has already used 600 planes and 300 rocket launchers to strike Gaza. The air force is known for its Kfir fighter jets and also has a number of F-35 Lightning II jets obtained from the US. “Israel is by far the strongest air force in the region, comparable with Turkey,” said Dr Ledwidge.
Israel also has “amazing capabilities for automated weaponry”, said Dr Ledwidge, adding that “there is a question to whether Israel is the first country to have executed an operation wherein [artificial intelligence] selects the targets for killing within the context of swarm drones”.
Ground troops are drawing from an arsenal of around 1,100 third and fourth-generation Merkava tanks, which are similar to the German Leopard 2 battle tank widely used in Ukraine, with a thick front armour plate to provide maximum protection for its crew, and a 120mm main gun.
“The Merkava tank is a main weapon we’ve seen in previous Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip and we are likely to see it again in the coming invasion,” Dr Ahron Bregman, a former IDF major who served in the 1982 Lebanon war, told The Independent.
Where could Israel focus an invasion?
Whatever the Israelis do will be “very much at the extreme end” of plans which have been refined over nine years since the last incursion into Gaza in 2014, which lasted for a month, said Dr Ledwidge, adding that there is already evidence of “a fairly systematic plan being executed”.
Dr Bregman expects a ground invasion to be “mainly, but not exclusively”, into the northern Gaza Strip, which has so far seen the bulk of Israel’s aerial bombardment, although heavy and deadly strikes have been reported in the southern city of Khan Yunis, and other locations.
‘What Hamas want is to get those Israeli solders into their alleyways where they can exploit their local knowledge,’ says expert— (REUTERS)
These airstrikes are “aimed at preparing the ground for the invasion, including emptying the area of innocent residents – getting them out of the way so it would be easier to hit the enemy”, Dr Bregman said, adding that northern Gaza’s more open and agricultral terrain makes it easy for Israeli tanks to manouvre.
As with previous operations, the “invasion will involve carving up the strip and cutting off communications between the different sectors, particularly between Gaza and the rest”, he added.
Dr Bregman added: “It’s hard to say, but I can’t see how the military could achieve its main aim – weakening the military capabilities of Hamas – without moving into towns and even cities.”
Israeli assaults on cities would open with “massive [barrages] from air, land and sea”, said Dr Bregman, adding: “While inside urban areas, troops will try to move from house to house breaking internal walls rather than moving along roads.”
What dangers do Israeli forces face?
“The dangers to the Israelis fighting in urban areas are clear, as it is there that Hamas, equipped with Kornet anti-tank guided missiles, can cause much damage. Also, inside towns and cities Hamas got tunnels from where it could emerge, hit, and then retreat back,” said Dr Bregman.
Dr Ledwidge agrees that “you won’t see tanks in built up areas – they’re much too vulnerable, and if you do they’re probably going to get killed”.
An Israeli tank drives toward the Israeli southern border with the Gaza Strip— (Getty Images)
The militants’ stock of drones now means also that “for the first time for the Israelis, Israeli soldiers willl have to look up and make sure they’re not being spied on or bombed by drones”, added Dr Ledwidge, a former military officer who has served in the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan.
In Gaza, Hamas also have the advantage of local knowledge, and of extensive preparation, and “there is no doubt whatsoever they have very capable leadership”, said Dr Ledwidge.
Describing Saturday’s brutal incursion and slaughter of civilians as “a ‘come-on’, in our parlance”, he said “What they want is to get those Israeli solders into their alleyways where they can exploit their local knowledge, the cover, the tunnel systems, use their new drone capabilities, and trap them and kill them there – which the Israelis are more than aware of and will offset, but that’s the Hamas plan.
“And they will have prepared ambushes, fortified positions, tunnels, weapons dump, human shields, hostages, and extensive information operations to support all of those things.”
How long could an invasion last?
With Hamas having clearly long-planned their incursion, and Israel bracing its citizens for “a long, long haul”, both sides appear steeled for a drawn-out conflict.
Dr Ledwidge compared an invasion of Gaza to the battle against Isis in the Iraqi city of Mosul, which took many months to subdue – and in which Isis “certainly hadn’t prepared in the same way that Hamas has for years”.
He added: “While it’s not quite an immovable object meeting an irresistible force – because the Israeli army will prevail – the question is how many sides are both sides willing to sustain in this fight? And both sides are clearly not casualty-averse.
“The Israelis consider themselves to have been defeated in Lebanon in 2006 when they lost 136 soldiers killed and were forced to retreat because of the political effect. Now that is not going to be an issue - they want this done, and are prepared to pay the cost for that.”
