I’m a big predictions guy. I’ve guessed the winners ahead of every single WWE premium live event for more than three years. Given my other passion is Survivor, I started planning to write this article as soon as the cast of returning legends was officially announced. Unfortunately, it has proven a lot harder than expected. It’s easy to eliminate a half dozen or so castaways that almost certainly aren’t going to win (you’re the best, Q!), but most of the people going to Fiji have either won or made extremely deep runs before. We’re not dealing with much first boot energy.
We’re also dealing with a lot of lofty reputations. If every cast member was unknown to the other players, I’d bet big on standouts like Cirie, Dee and Christian, but they’re entering the game with huge targets on their back because other castaways know how strategic and capable they are. They’ll probably win if they make it to the end, but what are the chances the other players don’t conspire against them?
As such, my winner prediction is an exercise in balancing threat levels and winning potential. It’s about figuring out who isn’t a big enough threat to get targeted early on but is a strong enough player that if they get to the end, they will have likely contributed in a meaningful enough way to get jury votes.
I’m also going to throw in my predictions for the Final Tribal Council losers. For those two, it’s about trying to figure out who can navigate their way through the game, likely as a member of a dominant alliance but won’t be viewed as enough of a decision maker or change agent to actually get votes at Final Tribal Council. I’m not sure there’s anyone here who fits the definition of an obvious goat, but there are some players who may be a bit too messy or aren’t viewed as strategic enough to be a huge threat at the end.
It’s time to go on record. I have no idea what’s going to happen. I haven’t sought out any spoilers or heard any rumors. I’m just a guy who has watched every season of Survivor telling you what he thinks is going to happen…
Losing Finalist: Angelina Keeley
Angelina is way smarter and better at the game than many fans remember. She’s got a Masters from Yale and made the finals the only time she played on David vs Goliath. Despite the infamous jacket scene, she’s not some goofy, hapless character that’s only there for comedic value. That being said, she is at least partly there for comedic value, and that’s both a tremendous strength and weakness.
Players usually like keeping big characters around on Survivor. If you’re a larger than life personality, people assume you can’t win at Final Tribal Council because those types of players usually don’t win at Final Tribal Council. Given Angelina was a zero vote finalist on her season, she’s going to go into the game with that reputation.
I think she’ll use that reputation to her advantage and use her social game to be a core member of her starting tribe’s dominant alliance. Then after the merge, I think she’ll find her way into whatever the main alliance is again, working her way through the game as someone the other castaways don’t think to target. That’s a good plan for getting to Final Tribal Council and maybe getting another White Lotus cameo, but it’s also a good way to be a losing finalist again.
Losing Finalist: Colby Donaldson
A lot of people seem happy to be on Survivor 50, but I’m not sure any of them are radiating as much positive energy as Colby. He was apparently the first person to proactively reach out to the casting department about getting back on, and he’s said in several interviews that he feels like he’s a little closer to the man who won America’s heart and finished second during his first season than the one who seemed, at times, disinterested and frustrated during his second and third trips to the island.
When Colby is in a good place, I just don’t think he’s the type of person you want to vote out. He’s so likeable and charming, but because he’s had a lot of failures on the show, he also doesn’t really come across as a threat. It’s a great combination for making a deep run, and it’s one I think is going to serve him well during Survivor 50.
The big question is whether he can show himself to be enough of a strategic threat to get votes if he makes it to Final Tribal Council. I think he’s going to surprise people a bit. I was negative on Colby's chances initially, but after Christian listed him as someone likely to make a deep run, I started to reconsider. He’s talked about trying to keep up with where the game has gone the past several years, and he’s been a key vote in some big moves in the past, most notably Cirie’s blindside in Heroes vs Villains. I bet he has a hand in some fun strategy here, but I’m not sure it’ll be enough.
Winner: Genevieve Mushaluk
Despite being a part of some of the most interesting New Era moves we’ve seen, Genevieve is in a good spot heading into Survivor 50 because she wound up finishing fifth on her season. She’s not the biggest personality in the world, and she’s also not someone that’s on the radar of a lot of other players, especially the OGs. Coach admitted during a pregame interview that he didn’t even know what she looked like. That’s huge for her.
It’s also huge that she’s shown in the past that she can pick her moments to exert herself. She was a dominant strategic force during parts of her season, but during other parts, she was perfectly content to blend into the background. Survivor 50 isn’t going to be won by someone who tries to steamroll their way through the entire season. They’ll get voted out as a big threat, but it’s also not going to be won by someone who coasts by. It’s going to be won by someone who makes one or two moves at the right moment.
I think Genevieve has all the tools she needs to win. She’s capable but not obvious. She’s good enough socially but not a butterfly. She’s strategic but doesn’t feel the need to always show she’s strategic. I think she’s the most likely to win the game, and she’s my pick.
You can check out if I'm right when Survivor hits the TV schedule this coming Wednesday on CBS.
