Peat bogs span almost 15% of my home country of Belarus. But, in recent times, citizens have grown wary of these dense, acidic wetlands. Their decaying vegetative matter is a valuable source of fuel and, after decades of being gradually drained and stripped away, the drying marshes that remain pose a significant fire risk. Smouldering underground fires can burn for months unseen before bursting out into the open and wreaking devastation.
Much like these underground peat fires that grow shielded from view, democracy in Belarus is currently burning and President Alexander Lukashenko’s corrupt, despotic regime is the decaying marshland, tinder-dry and ripe for destruction.
Just over two years ago, I ran for election against Europe’s longest-sitting and most repressive ruler. I was forced to stand in place of my husband, Siarhei, after Lukashenko’s secret police – terrified to face the will of the Belarusian people – locked him up, along with every other potential opponent.
When I put my name forward, I had little expectation of winning. After all, Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994, his regime morphing from the soft authoritarian rule of a collective-farm boss into a vicious autocracy that currently has 1,300 political prisoners in its jails.
As my team and I watched the election results unfold from our headquarters in Minsk, we were astonished to see tens of thousands of photos of ballots with a mark next to my name flooding the internet. In the evening, people stayed at ballot stations to demand a fair count. After they were denied, thousands went to protest in the city centre, kickstarting a revolution in the country that continues to this day.
Belarus has become a political desert. Civil society has been forced to go underground. Journalists publish their material anonymously. Yet Lukashenko is deeply unpopular and much weaker than many assume. He is supported by no more than 25% of the population: mostly pensioners, bureaucrats and security service personnel, who depend on the state for jobs in a tanking economy.
Lukashenko would not have survived the uprising that followed the stolen 2020 election if it wasn’t for Vladimir Putin. The Russian president sent propagandists, financial support and, eventually, tanks in a bid to prop up his old Soviet ally – then forced him to pay his debts by enlisting support for the catastrophic invasion of Ukraine 18 months later.
Lukashenko’s unpopular backing of Putin’s unlawful war, which so horrified the developed world, should hasten the beginning of his end. Millions of Belarusians are furious that Russian troops were allowed to march through our lands before launching their failed attack on Kyiv.
Sanctions have already been levelled against Lukashenko and his cronies. But they could go so much further. We need more monetary and secondary sanctions targeting the state economy that fuels Lukashenko’s KGB intelligence agency and Putin’s war machine. Belarusian state-owned banks should be eliminated from the global financial system and state-owned companies should be expelled from the Swift banking regime.
Of course, Lukashenko does not care that Belarus is a vassal state. At every stage of his rule, he has backed Russia over his own people. Lukashenko wanted us to speak Russian, rather than our own language. It was rumoured that his personal aim at one stage was to become president of Russia. Despite the media blackouts, a critical mass of the Belarusian people now understand that they are ruled by an agent of the Kremlin who squats at the apex of a country he does not want to exist. Public revulsion is mounting. The democratic fires of Belarus will eventually roar, the only question is when.
At the UN general assembly , which opened last week, the international community must come together and send a strong message that the world is united behind the democratic majority in Belarus.
The nature of Lukashenko’s autocracy means penalties can be implemented relatively easily without too much damage to innocent Belarusians. UN member states can target the state-owned entities that rely on Lukashenko’s patronage, leaving the private sector to flourish. Belarusian media and civil society need financial support. This would create incentives for more and more people to choose the path of democracy, justice and the rule of law.
At the UN general assembly, Belarus must be at the table, not on the table, and our territorial independence and political sovereignty must be guaranteed. Lukashenko has placed Belarus at the centre of the crisis in eastern Europe. Yet, it remains part of the solution – our geographical location has huge significance for the Kremlin. Remove the puppet Lukashenko and you remove Putin’s Belarusian “balcony”, which looms over eastern Europe and provides strategic access to Poland and the Baltic states. Doubtless the future of my country is already being raised in diplomatic back channels. But the world must not bow to Russian pressure. They must not give up one square metre of Belarus in an attempt to end Putin’s desperate war.
Finally, the UN must make it very clear that Lukashenko’s request for Russian nuclear weapons to be deployed on Belarusian territory would elicit a severe response. Just like Ukraine, Belarus gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 in return for security guarantees from the west – and Russia. Putin has now run roughshod over Moscow’s obligations under international law. The prospect of Russian nukes being transported to Belarus, which borders several Nato countries, would be a nightmare for the west.
Belarusians are a very patient people. We have suffered too long without complaint. One of our national characteristics is ciarpila, which means “endured”. After 28 years, we have endured enough at the hands of Lukashenko. It is time for the international community to help us light an inferno that finally engulfs this teetering tyrant.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is the leader of the democratic opposition in Belarus
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