A PROTOTYPE AI chatbot is freaking out scientists who fear it could take over their jobs. But should political strategists and advisers be afraid, too?
ChatGPT, designed by Elon-Musk-founded OpenAI, was launched in late November to critical acclaim from experts who were impressed by its accessibility and detailed answers.
The service was trained by AI and machine learning, using a massive archive of text found across the internet, in order to offer information and answer users’ questions on a variety of subjects.
With early ChatGPT users finding the sophisticated service can provide a Google-like experience, the creator of Gmail has even predicted that the AI could eliminate search engines altogether within a couple of years.
And academics around the world have been stunned by ChatGPT’s ability to answer their exam questions – sharing examples of responses which would have received full marks at university level.
I decided to see if ChatGPT had the ability to provide answers on a topic which has been a problem for Scotland’s politicians for many years.
Exactly how can Scotland secure, and win, an independence referendum?
Part one - the basics
To kick us off, I asked the AI: “How could there be another independence referendum?”
A key point here before we explore the response. The bot’s memory only goes up to 2021, so it doesn’t know anything about the Supreme Court verdict determining that Scotland requires Westminster’s consent to hold indyref2. But it does know about, basically, the whole of history.
ChatGPT will undoubtedly be declared a “nat” for daring to say this, but it was unequivocal about who should make these decisions.
“In Scotland, the decision to hold a referendum on independence is ultimately up to the Scottish Parliament.”
Even Scottish Labour won’t say that.
It did acknowledge that the UK Government needs to grant consent, however, and concluded: “Ultimately, whether or not there will be another independence referendum in Scotland will depend on a range of political and economic factors, as well as the will of the people of Scotland.”
From a strategy perspective, ChatGPT didn’t offer any new insight into the pursuit of indyref2.
Part two - the strategy
So let's skip ahead. According to AI, what's the best strategy to win independence?
According to the bot a "peaceful and democratic approach", making use of "elections and public discourse", is the best way to go. Hard to disagree there.
It adds: "It's important to note that independence is not something that can be achieved through a single strategy or action, but rather it is a long-term process that would require the support of a significant portion of the Scottish population and the willingness of the UK Government to negotiate and agree to the terms of independence."
At this point, we're still no further forward. I asked a more specific question: "What strategy could the SNP use to win Scottish independence?"
With this question, ChatGPT opened up much more. These are the arguments most likely to help us win independence, according to AI:
- "Focus on the benefits of independence for the people of Scotland. They could argue that independence would allow Scotland to have full control over its own affairs and make its own decisions, which would give the country the ability to shape its own future and pursue policies that are better suited to its own needs and priorities."
- "The SNP could also highlight the potential economic benefits of independence, such as the ability to develop Scotland's own economy and enhance its international standing."
- "Emphasize the risks and disadvantages of remaining part of the UK. They could argue that the UK Government in London does not always have the best interests of Scotland at heart, and that Scotland would be better off making its own decisions ..."
- "Point out that the UK is facing a number of challenges, such as Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic ..."
- "Build a broad coalition of supporters for independence, by reaching out to other political parties and groups that support independence, as well as to individuals and organisations that may not necessarily support independence but are open to the idea. This could help to create a sense of momentum and make it more likely that independence would be achieved."
- "Use a variety of tactics to engage with the public and build support for independence. This could include holding rallies and events, conducting public opinion polls, and using social media and other digital platforms to communicate with supporters and potential supporters."
As well-written as the bot's arguments are, there is nothing here which the average Yes supporter couldn't suggest. Political strategists are safe, for now.
Slogans and campaigning
I asked ChatGPT to come up with a series of slogans for the Yes campaign, as well as some for the Unionist side. Here's what it came up with.
New Yes campaign slogans:
- Scotland's Future in Scotland's Hands (this one has genuinely been an SNP slogan)
- Independence for a Stronger Scotland
- Achieving Independence Through Democracy
- Building a Better Scotland Together
- A Bright Future for Scotland as an Independent Nation
New Unionist campaign slogans:
- United We Stand, Divided We Fall
- Together We're Stronger
- Scotland: Better Together (ding, ding!)
- The Power of Partnership
- Independence: Too Risky, Too Costly
Other than buzzwords, ChatGPT lists the following tactics as among the best for campaigners wanting to win independence. It says activists can:
- "Educate themselves about the issues surrounding independence, including the potential benefits and drawbacks. This will help them to better understand the arguments for and against independence, and to articulate those arguments to others."
- "Get involved in pro-independence campaigns and organisations. This could involve volunteering, donating money, or simply spreading the word about the cause through social media and other channels."
- "Engage in public discourse and debate about independence. This could involve participating in discussions on social media, attending public meetings and forums, and writing letters to the editor of local newspapers."
- "Vote in favor of independence in the referendum. Of course, the most important thing that independence supporters can do is to turn out and vote in favor of independence on the day of the referendum."
The Yes movement is packed with campaigners doing this on a daily basis. Unfortunately, we still haven't really learned anything we didn't already know.
The one thing which may be useful for activists to screenshot and print out is ChatGPT's response to the question: "How rich is Scotland?"
"It is difficult to quantify the exact wealth of a country like Scotland, as wealth can be measured in many different ways," the bot tells users. "However, by most measures, Scotland is considered to be a wealthy country.
"For example, according to data from the World Bank, Scotland has a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of around $43,000, which is higher than the average for the European Union and many other countries around the world. In addition, Scotland has a strong and diverse economy, with significant industries in sectors such as oil and gas, financial services, tourism, and manufacturing. This, combined with a high standard of living and well-educated population, contributes to Scotland's overall wealth and prosperity."
Conclusion
Exploring ChatGPT’s political knowledge was fascinating. I was impressed by how unbiased it seemed on the topic of independence, given the AI was trained on internet content – and the internet is hardly the most objective place to dive into political issues. If you Google “how rich is Scotland”, for example, you see user-generated responses on sites like Quora and articles on right-wing newspapers like The Telegraph. The theory that bots like ChatGPT could replace traditional search engines is completely feasible when you compare and contrast the quality of results on both.
The service’s ability to write in well-formed, convincingly human sentences is absolutely astounding. This is, after all, a language model, rather than a service that live-searches the web for its answers. Of course, that raises serious questions for anyone whose job relies on content creation, as well as for educators – what are the consequences for schools and universities when anyone can instruct an advanced bot to write an essay based on any topic in the world?
For politics, these kinds of bots could be a useful tool to put together campaigning materials and source information in an ad-free environment. However, when it comes to strategising, AI is currently not capable of the critical-thinking required to put together comprehensive plans for elections or referendums. At the speed it’s advancing at, though, it might not be long until that day comes.
