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Ethan Murray, Postdoctoral Researcher, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, University of Colorado Boulder

Hurricane Melissa turned sharply to devastate Jamaica − how forecasters knew where it was headed

High-level steering winds sent Hurricane Melissa on a sharp turn directly into Jamaica on Oct. 28, 2025. Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of Wisconsin-Madison

Hurricane Melissa grew into one of the most powerful Atlantic tropical cyclones in recorded history on Oct. 28, 2025, hitting western Jamaica with 185 mph sustained winds. The Category 5 hurricane blew roofs off buildings and knocked down power lines, its torrential rainfall generated mudslides and flash flooding, and its storm surge inundated coastal areas.

Melissa had been wobbling south of the island for days, quickly gaining strength over the hot Caribbean Sea, before taking a sharp turn to the northeast that morning.

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