The East Pacific’s first named storm of the year— Agatha — strengthened into a hurricane Sunday morning as it closed in on the southern Mexico coastline. Agatha remains on track to stamp its mark in the weather history books, following in the footsteps of only two other May hurricanes in the East Pacific basin, and forecasters warn of high risk to life and property as the strengthening storm moves onshore.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the leftover energy from Agatha as it crosses Mexico and enters the Bay of Campeche during the first days of June. Here, there is a chance it could redevelop into the Atlantic basin’s first named storm.
Thus far, AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Agatha a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact
Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico as a result of the storm’s damaging winds and significant flooding threat.
The National Hurricane Center hoisted hurricane warnings from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico, ahead of impact. Winds within the center of the storm had reached 75 mph (120 km/h), Category 1 hurricane strength, at 7 a.m. CDT Sunday, a little over 24 hours after Tropical Storm Agatha formed.
“Agatha will continue to intensify as it makes a northward and then eventually northeastward turn towards the southern coast of Mexico,” Dan Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather who regularly issues tropical outlooks for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, said.
AccuWeather meteorologists expected Agatha to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane (maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph, or 154-177 km/h) Monday evening along the southern coast of Mexico in the state of Oaxaca.
If the storm makes landfall at Category 2 or higher intensity, it would be the strongest May hurricane to ever make landfall in the eastern Pacific basin. Only two hurricanes in recorded history have made landfall in Mexico during the month of May — Barbara on May 29, 2013, and Agatha on May 24, 1971 — both of which were Category 1 hurricane strength.
Forecasters say that preparations should be rushed to completion as conditions will deteriorate as soon as Sunday night and early Monday morning as Agatha approaches the coastline and bands of wind and rain begin to work their way onshore in Oaxaca and Chiapas.
“Hurricane-force winds (maximum-sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected near where the storm makes landfall along Mexico’s southern coast, which can lead to downed trees and power lines, and structural damage,” Pydynowski said.
An AccuWeather Local StormMax wind gust of 115 mph (185 km/h) is forecast near where the center of Agatha moves onshore. Anyone without adequate shelter from these fierce winds will be subject to flying debris.
These strong winds can also kick up dangerous surf along the entire southern coast of Mexico, making it dangerous for swimmers to enter the water and for boaters to venture offshore.
Large and destructive waves will not be the only coastal hazard. Strong onshore winds will cause water to pile up at the coast, with a storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) expected to cause inundation near and to the east of where the center of Agatha moves onshore.
“Flooding rainfall is expected to be one of the biggest impacts across southern Mexico and parts of Central America,” Pydynowski said.
Heavy rain is likely to pour down from Acapulco to Oaxaca and Tehuacán, Mexico, from late Sunday into Tuesday, posing a significant risk to life and property.
“The heaviest rain will fall across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, causing flash flooding, mudslides and road closures,” Pydynowski said.
Residents living in and around mountainous areas will be at the highest risk to experience these life-threatening dangers, as the steep slopes can easily give way once the ground becomes extremely saturated. Mudslides can occur with little warning, making it vital for people to be aware of rapidly changing conditions and have an emergency plan in place.
Rain amounts of 6 inches (150 mm) or more are expected to be widespread across southern Mexico during the life span of the storm. Coastal portions of Oaxaca and Chiapas can expect the highest rain amounts of 8-12 inches (200-300 mm). Mountainous areas will be most likely to reach the AccuWeather Local StormMax of 28 inches (710 mm).
“Additional heavy rainfall is expected after the storm which can lead to additional flooding and hamper cleanup efforts,” Pydynowski said.
AccuWeather meteorologists have rated Agatha a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes due to the intense wind gusts and high flooding threat in Mexico.
The 2022 East Pacific tropical season is off to a quick start after beginning on May 15. AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a normal to above-normal season with 15-19 named storms and the possibility of six to eight of them reaching hurricane force. The normal count of named storms in the basin is about 15 storms, with eight achieving hurricane status.
Produced in association with AccuWeather.
