Wales's hopes of automatically qualifying for Euro 2024 were dealt another seismic blow on Monday night as they lost 2-0 away to Turkey just days after their humilating 4-2 defeat against visiting Armenia in Cardiff.
Rob Page's side were downed in Samsun on another miserable night which saw Joe Morrell sent off for a high-boot challenge before the break as Wales were reduced to 10 men for the second consecutive game after Kieffer Moore also saw red against Armenia.
The latest defeat means Wales have now won just one of their last 12 games, with it looking increasingly difficult for them to qualify automatically for next summer's European Championships.
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They currently sit in fourth place out of the five teams in Group D, above winless Latvia and level on points with World Cup semi-finalists Croatia, who have two games in hand and are ahead on goal difference. Turkey and Armenia currently occupy the two automatic qualification spots having only lost one game each so far.
Wales' disastrous results over the weekend mean that they would effectively have to win all of their remaining four games - including beating Turkey and Croatia at home - to have a chance of finishing in the top spots.
As a result, Turkey and Croatia are now favourites to top the group and progress to next year's tournament in Germany, while the Armenians are also in the mix after proving in Cardiff that they are more than capable of pulling off a shock result.
All of this means that Page's men will more than likely have to rely on the play-offs to reach a third consecutive European Championships.
However, all is not lost for Wales as they have effectively got a play-off space in the bag already - and it's all down to the Nations League.
Here's how it all works and what it means for Wales:
How does qualifying for Euro 2024 work?
Just like 2020, the qualifying group stage for next summer's Euros decides 20 of the 23 teams that will compete at the championships alongside hosts Germany.
With games played in a round-robin format in March, June, September, October and November this year, the winners and runners-up from the 10 groups will qualify automatically for the tournament.
Where does the Nations League come into it?
While 20 sides will qualify directly, three other teams will be decided through the play-offs.
Twelve teams will contest these play-offs and will be split into three paths of four teams - with one team from each path qualifying for the final tournament.
Crucially, these teams will be selected based on their performance in the 2022/23 UEFA Nations League.
Put simply, the group winners of Nations Leagues A, B, and C will automatically qualify for the play-off path of their league unless they have qualified for the final tournament via the qualifying group stage.
But if a group winner has already qualified through the group stage, they will be replaced by the next best-ranked team in the same league.
If there are not enough non-qualified teams in the same league, then it filters down to the next league, finishing with League D.
So, what does this mean for Wales?
Rob Page's side suffered relegation from League A in September after defeat to Poland meant they will be playing in League B for the next edition of the tournament.
But that has not damaged their chances of making the play-offs with a spot essentially guaranteed.
This is because Wales are ranked 16th in the overall Nations League standings and the 15 teams above them are all on course to qualify automatically for the tournament - with nine of them currently sitting in the top two spots and five with one or two games in hand and likely to make it. Germany are currently 10th in the rankings but qualify automatically for next year's Euros as hosts.
As a result, barring a series of major upsets, Wales can expect to be handed one of the automatic play-off spots.
Who would we have to beat and when would we play them?
With half of the qualifying games still to play, it is impossible to tell exactly who Wales would face in the play-offs.
As it stands at time of publication, they wouldn't even make it there - with Nations League finalists Netherlands, Croatia, Spain and Italy (currently all outside the top two of their Euros qualifying groups) picking up automatic play-off spots, along with Israel, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iceland, Norway, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Kosovo and Bulgaria.
However, Netherlands, Croatia, Spain and Italy all have one or two games in hand, making the above scenario highly unlikely and almost guaranteeing that Wales won't miss out on a spot.
A far more likely play-off lineup - based on projected qualifying results and Nations League standings - would see Wales be joined by:
- Israel
- Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Ukraine
- Iceland
- Georgia
- Greece
- Kazakhstan
- Luxembourg
- Estonia
- Norway
- Slovenia
The play-offs take place in March 2024 at the conclusion of the Euros qualifiers
There will be six semi-finals (two for each path and all single-leg) on March 21 before three finals are held on March 26, with the three winning teams in those games completing the 24-team line-up at next summer's tournament.
In the semi-finals, the best-ranked team will host the lowest-ranked team, and the second-ranked team will host the third-ranked team.
All of this means that if Wales do enter the play-offs, where they are likely to be the highest ranked team as the only Nations League A side, they're most likely to play Estonia, the expected only Nations League D team, in Cardiff in the Path 1 semi-final on March 21, 2024.
