There’s no such thing as an easy NFL divisional playoff game.
Anytime a team makes it to this point in the season, with the best remaining eight squads, everyone is solid. The Houston Texans have known this all too well. This is just the fifth time in franchise history they’ve advanced to the AFC divisional round, and they’ve never made it to the conference championship game, suffering losses to the New England Patriots (2012 and 2016 seasons), Kansas City Chiefs (2019) and Baltimore Ravens (2011).
This one shapes up to be particularly challenging as, for all the greatness of their own quarterback in rookie C.J. Stroud, they’ll face projected league MVP Lamar Jackson.
No one's more dangerous than Lamar Jackson after he activates his X-factor 😈 pic.twitter.com/PRJXmK19e7
— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2023
Jackson, the winner of the 2019 NFL MVP award and this year’s anticipated winner, has surged under first-year offensive coordinator Todd Monken. He threw for 3,678 yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions in the regular season while rushing for 821 yards and five touchdowns. His revamped offense, with receivers Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, was one of the most dynamic in the league. With a top-tier defense as well, the Ravens cruised to a 13-4 record.
That included a decisive 25-9 victory over the Texans in Week 1. Houston’s defense did their job, allowing Jackson only 169 passing yards and forcing an interception, but their offensive deficiencies couldn’t be overcome. Since then, Baltimore’s offense certainly has improved, and so has Houston’s defense, which has jelled under head coach DeMeco Ryans.
How can the Texans repeat their Week 1 performance against Jackson? It likely starts up front.
DeMeco Ryans sent 6+ rushers at Lamar Jackson 5 times during Week 1. It was one of 4 games with more than 2 such blitzes.
They pressured on 4 out of 5 dropbacks and forced an interception. Interestingly, there were no sacks.
Expect them to dial up more of the same #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 17, 2024
Houston had 16 quarterback pressures and four sacks in Week 1. Defensive coordinator Matt Burke spoke on Wednesday about how everything starts with the discipline and effectiveness of the defensive line.
“It’s going to be sort of like we’ve preached all year, but even at a heightened level of rushing as a unit. We can’t have independent contractors out there. It’s definitely going to be about guys staying in their rush areas,” Burke said of his unit needing to work cohesively. “If you get out of your area and out of your lane, and kind of where we’re trying to put it all together, if you get out, then he’s going to make you pay. So, I would probably say just from a discipline – a rush-discipline level – this is the ultimate [challenge] this week, for sure.”
Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard, despite fighting injuries this week, will need to be at their best in this game. Their ability to generate pressure one-on-one and be used creatively on stunts generates an enormous amount of stress on the offensive line when paired with defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins. Jackson can fry any defense if he’s given too much time, whether with his legs or his arm.
Matt Burke on the challenge of finding ways to attack Lamar Jackson #Texans
“This is the ultimate this week, for sure.” pic.twitter.com/tJs9PKtfu8
— Shaun Bijani (@ShaunBijani) January 17, 2024
Another way to generate pressure is to give the defensive line more time, or simply cover up passing outlets. Houston’s defensive back group is coming off one of their best performances of the season against Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco.
Burke had more to say on the coverage component of covering Baltimore.
“Part of that preaching, even in coverage, there’s no clock on the coverage,” he said. “It’s – you have to defend the second play. We had him a couple of times where we kind of felt like we had him in the grass, and then he breaks out, and then he makes a play downfield. Hopefully not for that many yards, but it is a mental battle too, of like, we’ve got to keep coming, we’ve got to keep coming.”
Burke further discussed the tough task of stopping Jackson.
“You’ve got to throw waves at them,” he said. “He’s going to make some plays, right? There’s a reason he’s in the MVP conversation. He’s had a great season and he’s a great player, so we understand that there’s going to be plays that are made out there. It’s definitely going to be part of our mindset of, ‘Hey, next play – back up.’ We have a plan of how we want to approach it and we’ve got to stick with it.”
Don’t be surprised to see more varied coverage looks against the Ravens and further utilization of the special, emerging talent that is second-year cornerback Derek Stingley. Stingley shut down Amari Cooper last week and will likely see a heavy load of Baltimore leading receiver Zay Flowers, the only player to gather over 100 targets from Jackson this season. It could be difficult with Flowers’ usage in the slot, but nevertheless it won’t be a surprise if the Texans try to get Stingley on him.
DeMeco Ryans changed the San Francisco 49ers when he leaned into the demonstrably talented players on his roster.
He put the league on notice & unleashed those same devastating adjustments against the Cleveland Browns with Derek Stingley
Read here⬇️https://t.co/bH1eEAH4jc pic.twitter.com/arCFqH50Ak
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 14, 2024
Like last week, cornerbacks Steven Nelson and Desmond King will be tasked to cover secondary playmakers. Beckham is one of the better No. 2 receivers in the league but won’t represent an overwhelming physical matchup for Nelson, whose outstanding year culminated in a pick-six last week.
Linebackers Christian Harris and Blake Cashman will have to work in tandem with the safety group to stall former All-Pro Mark Andrews, if he’s able to suit up for the game. As with the Browns’ David Njoku last week, this may be an area of the field they’re happy to force Jackson to work toward.
All together, stout coverage on the back end with a good performance from the pass rushers should be enough to get consistent pressure on Jackson and hopefully sacks. However, pressure isn’t enough. Jackson was the league’s best passer against pressure this season.
How do you bring down a quarterback so elusive? Additional help never hurts.
How have the Houston Texans fared when they've blitzed 6+? It's only happened on 42 snaps.
They have the 2nd best pressure rate on those plays (66.7%) but just the 26th highest sack rate (7.1%)
Their defensive success (57.1%) ranks just 21st on those plays #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 17, 2024
Ryans has rarely blitzed six or more this season, but when he has, it’s been effective. The Texans have the second-highest pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks and have the fifth-best passer rating allowed in the NFL at 69.7. It’s resulted in two interceptions and just two touchdowns allowed despite a relatively low success rate (21st).
The last time they played against Baltimore, Houston wasn’t afraid to send the house at Jackson. They blitzed him five times, one of just four games this season at that volume, and forced a turnover.
If there's any place to attack the MVP Lamar Jackson… it might be with the blitz.
He ranks 29th of 42 eligible passers in EPA/db against 6+ pass rushers.
He ranks 36th in passer rating and 24th in success rate in these heavy blitz scenarios #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) January 16, 2024
Jackson goes from the league’s best passer, or at least a top passer, to extremely average against heavy blitz looks. He ranked 29th of 42 eligible passers in EPA/db and 36th in passer rating against such blitzes this year. The man coverages looks that they come with, and relative overloading of defensive bodies, also mean that it’s difficult for Jackson to use his legs.
Jackson’s EPA/db significantly decreases when forced to play against man coverage, likely for this very reason. He’s scrambled on only 10.5% of man dropbacks compared to 14.5% when facing zone. In this way, Ryans could gamble against Jackson as a pure drop-back passer in the right situations and eliminate the chaotic element of his running.
It won’t be an every-down flavor for Houston. The Texans like to rush four, and that’s their philosophy. However, expect them to dial up five to 10 plays where they work to heat up Jackson and force the kind of high-variance decision-making that can swing plays.
If everyone can play their assignments on downs and Ryans dials up his magic at just the right time, Houston may be able to slow Jackson.
